Because I was curious... '22 ACC recruits and how many of those guys play 50% of minutes for the team that recruited them:
Boston College: Hand, Aligbe (55.5%), Kelley, Mighty - 0 transfers out
Clemson: Wiggins (51.6%), Hunter (47.9%), Gibson, Godfrey - 1 transfer out
Duke: Lively, Whitehead, Filipowski (75.5%), Mitchell (59.9%), Proctor (61.8%), Schutt, Reeves - 2 NBA, 0 transfers out
FSU: Palinkas, Miller (59.8%), Jackson, Green, Corhen, Bembry, House - 2 transfers out
GT: Bagatskis, Martynov - 2 transfers out
Louisville: Lands, Ree, Basili, Okorafor - 3 transfers out
Miami: Watson, Casey, Aire, Jovanovich - 2 transfers out
NCSU: Miranda, Thomas - 1 transfer out
North Carolina: Trimble, Washington, Nickel - 1 transfer out
Notre Dame: Starling, Lubin, Campbell - 3 transfers out
Pittsburgh: Federiko (51.9%), Johnson, Diaz, Diaz - 1 transfer
Syracuse: Mintz (82.9%), Bell (59.8%), Taylor (59.6%), Copeland (53.5%), Brown (66.6%), Carey - 0 transfers out
Virginia: McKneely (73.6%), Bond, Traudt, Dunn (67.7%) - 1 transfer
Virginia Tech: Rice, Wessler, Collins (58.2%), Buchanan - 2 transfers
Wake Forest: Keller, Klintman - 1 Australia
Total '22 ACC Recruits: 60
Playing more than 50% of minutes in Year 2: 15
Playing less than 50% of minutes in Year 2: 23
Transfers: 19
NBA/Australia: 3
Thoughts:
Only 25% of players you recruit will end up being major contributors in Year 2... and if you take Syracuse out of that equation, it drops below 20% (18.5%)
Looking at '22 & '23 recruiting, you can be successful via transfers (UNC & Miami... NCSU & Wake to a degree)
Syracuse is a big outlier, which is even more surprising given the coaching change. All 6 recruits from '22 remain with the team and 5 of them play meaningful minutes