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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

deacon14 said:
I agree with you that Auburn doesn't have many wins over high-quality opponents. And the lack of road wins is strange, although the quad system is supposed to be able to make it so that we don't have to think as hard about what games were home/road/neutral.

But I do think that you are overthinking this a bit. Auburn has 6 losses, to NET ranked teams #13, 74, 5, 41, 29, and 20. Four of those were road games and one was a neutral site. They've beaten everyone else, and beaten the shit out of most of them.

Meanwhile, Wake has 9 losses, and 4 of them are to teams lower in NET than anyone Auburn has lost to. If you discount Auburn's App State loss, Wake has 7 losses to teams worse in the NET than anyone Auburn has lost to.

If Wake had avoided some of the losses to mediocre teams (NCSU, FSU, Pitt, UGA, LSU, etc.), they'd be close to where Auburn is now.
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Sure, I am definitely overthinking it, but my point was that Auburn hasn't even played any games similar to the road games we have lost. They've completely avoided 2Q road games (both SEC and OOC).

Not saying they gamed anything with their scheduling... It's just how it worked out. If anything, it highlights how the ACC needs to do a better in the non-conference in order to boost these road Q2 opportunities into road Q1 opportunities.

They do play @ UGA on Saturday... So that'll be an interesting one to watch.
 
NET is supposed to have a super-secret adjustment bridging the gap between analytics and resume. Does the committee officially use SOR?
 
DeacsATS said:
If anything, it highlights how the ACC needs to do a better in the non-conference in order to boost these road Q2 opportunities into road Q1 opportunities.
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Now THIS I agree with completely.

Utterly ridiculous that road games at Miami, NCSU, Syracuse, BC, and FSU are all Q2 road games for ACC teams. If the middle third of the ACC can't even be in the top 75 of D1 teams, what are we even doing here?
 
Just saw this on DBR:

Virginia is 11th in the country in KenPom's "luck" metric which looks at your record and then compares it to what your record probably should be based on your metrics.
Pitt is 160th in luck.
Clemson is 253rd.
Duke is 280th.
UNC is 298th.
And Wake... whew... Wake is 351st in the nation in luck. Ouch!!!
 
awakegirl said:
Just saw this on DBR:

Virginia is 11th in the country in KenPom's "luck" metric which looks at your record and then compares it to what your record probably should be based on your metrics.
Pitt is 160th in luck.
Clemson is 253rd.
Duke is 280th.
UNC is 298th.
And Wake... whew... Wake is 351st in the nation in luck. Ouch!!!
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Just more evidence that the ACC teams competing for a tournament bid should all have better resumes than they currently do, aside from UVA.

Which fits with the eye test for most of us that believe the top of the ACC is stronger than it gets credit for in terms of bracketology.
 
deacon14 said:
Beat them so badly that they drop out of the top 30 in NET and stay out of it through the end of the season?

We'd probably need to win by like 60 lol
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So you're saying we can just chalk this one up as a Q2 then?
 
While 4th out of 362 shows incredible home court value (sorry DR), at this point, hard to believe there are even three D1 basketball teams with greater home/road variance than WF:





Amazing that WF and Cuse are both 2-6 on the ACC road, and WF point differential in road games is -13 and Cuse's is -102... That's where the luck ranking comes into play.
 
greekdeac2011 said:
I understand the media and everyone hates the ACC, but at #26 in the NET, how is Wake STILL not in the NCAA field?
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The media & bracketologists likely read the foolproof and in-depth analysis on ogboards.com that confidently predicted Wake's season was over (i.e. no NCAA tourney) back in Nov 2023 and after each subsequent loss when it was REALLY OVER THIS TIME AND WE MEAN IT.
 
While this is clearly getting ahead of myself, pretty crazy that if WF is the #4 seed, securing the double bye, the rested Deacs could play one of Cuse, FSU, NC State or Pitt (or even a #12 or #13 seed if one of those mediocre teams gets upset) to go to an ACC Tournament Semifinal (probably against #1 seed UNC). While that doesn't seem like much, it's been so f-ing long since WF has reached an ACCT semifinal that would be meaningful.... at least to me.
 
Colonel Angus said:
The media & bracketologists likely read the foolproof and in-depth analysis on ogboards.com that confidently predicted Wake's season was over (i.e. no NCAA tourney) back in Nov 2023 and after each subsequent loss when it was REALLY OVER THIS TIME AND WE MEAN IT.
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It honestly might be that you’re not donating enough, but we’ll never know bc you withhold your proof like a coward
 
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