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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

I feel like @IAppreciateIt has covered multiple times that our actual resume is not very good but the metrics love us because we’ve blown out a bunch of mediocre teams.
 
PhDeac said:
I haven't looked at this as closely as some of you have. But it seems like if Wake gets left out, a team with a similar Q1/Q2 resume and worse metrics would get in.
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Nebraska, Butler, Mississippi, Gonzaga, and Seton Hall are the current at-large 11 seeds on Bracket Matrix. Here's their stats:

Nebraska: 43 NET, 3-7 Q1, 4-1 Q2, no Q3/Q4 losses.
Butler: 61 NET, 4-10 Q1, 3-1 Q2, no Q3/Q4 losses.
Ole Miss: 68 NET, 3-6 Q1, 1-1 Q2, no Q3/Q4 losses.
Gonzaga: 22 NET, 1-5 Q1, 2-1 Q2, no Q3/Q4 losses.
Seton Hall: 65 NET, 5-5 Q1, 2-2 Q2, 2 Q3/Q4 losses.

For comparison, Wake is 27 NET, 1-5 Q1, 4-4 Q2, no Q3/Q4 losses. So each of those 5 teams either has 3+ Q1 wins or a higher NET than Wake currently does. And the 4 with worse NET have all played many more Q1 games than Wake has (thanks ACC!)
 
Thanks, D14.

So let's say Wake goes 4-1 beating Duke and Clemson at home by double-digits but loses by 2 at VT. Then gets a Q2 win in the ACCT quarters and a Q1 loss in the semis.

Wake would be low teens/high 20s NET, 3-7 Q1, 5-4 Q2. I assume that would be firmly in but what seed?
 
The ACC is so bad per the metrics, that only teams in the A10 and WCC have comparable number of chances for Quad 1 wins.
 
PhDeac said:
Thanks, D14.

So let's say Wake goes 4-1 beating Duke and Clemson at home by double-digits but loses by 2 at VT. Then gets a Q2 win in the ACCT quarters and a Q1 loss in the semis.

Wake would be low teens/high 20s NET, 3-7 Q1, 5-4 Q2. I assume that would be firmly in but what seed?
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My guess is that such a resume would be somewhere in the 8-10 seed. Pretty much certainly would avoid the first round Dayton play-in
 
Atlanta Deacon said:
Not to state the obvious, but all of our Quad 1 losses are on the road and the only shot we had at a Quad 1 win was at home and we won. I don't know how many other teams that have had six Quad one chances only got one at home.
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By definition, the majority of Q1 games will be road games. Every home game that a top 75 team plays is a Q1 game for the opponent. Only the road games of the top 30 count as Q1 for the opponent.

Other bubble teams probably still got more home Q1 chances than Wake, but the majority of everyone's Q1 games are on the road.
 
Sure. But how many teams had a 1:5 ratio of home:road Q1 chances?

For example, Gonzaga has 2 home, 2 neutral, and 2 road Q1 games.

To be fair, Wake has two home Q1 chances coming up, so it could be 3 home, 1 neutral, 4 road Q1 games by the end of the regular season.
 
Atlanta Deacon said:
Not to state the obvious, but all of our Quad 1 losses are on the road and the only shot we had at a Quad 1 win was at home and we won. I don't know how many other teams that have had six Quad one chances only got one at home.
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I think it's a bit unlucky, but probably not a huge outlier since based on the quadrant definitions, teams will on average play 2.5 times as many road Q1 games as home ones. And the home/road impact is theoretically balanced out by the definition of the quadrants.

I think it's hard to argue we haven't had our fair share of opportunities to get Q1 wins. Don't have the explicit data, but you would think a top 25 team (based on our efficiency metrics) would expect to have three wins based on our Q1 opportunities to date.
 
WRS said:
I feel like @IAppreciateIt has covered multiple times that our actual resume is not very good but the metrics love us because we’ve blown out a bunch of mediocre teams.
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If it was easy to beat the piss out of a bubble team like Pitt everyone would do it. And we’ve done that to several conference teams so it’s not like we happened to go off randomly.

Either the metrics matter or they don’t. It’s sounding like they don’t and we’re just reverting back to the old model of “who did you beat” but a stupider version of that called quads. Just throw out the metrics, have the committee just eye test the field and stop wasting our time.
 
Wake's neutral/road Q1 games weren't exactly the most difficult thing in the world either. Played #47 Utah on a neutral floor (the cutoff for Q1 here is top 50). Played #10, 12, 48, 56 UNC/Duke/UVA/Pitt on the road.

Unlucky to draw UNC on the road instead of at home, but otherwise that's a pretty reasonable slate of Q1 games to be able to win a few. Especially considering we still have 2 Q1 home games on the schedule against non-top 10 teams.
 
Let's compare Wake and Utah State. Utah State didn't play a single power 6 conference team OOC. They have three quad 1 wins (two home conference wins (CSU & SDSU) and an away conference win (Boise)). Kenpom # 40 and NET #30. Projected as a 7 seed, not close to a bubble team. Utah State is in 106/106 brackets on bracketmatrix (avg. 7 seed, high 5 seed, low 10 seed).

Compare to Wake who played Georgia, Florida, Rutgers, LSU, and Utah OOC and is now kenpom #21 and NET #27. With that, Wake is not even projected to make the tournament. Wake Forest is in 11/106 brackets on bracketmatrix (avg. 11 seed, high 8 seed, low 12 seed).

That is a wild disparity that does not align with the analytics. It is a perfect example of how the Lunardi/ESPN narrative that that ACC is down is hurting teams like Wake.
 
New Mexico's Q1 wins are

Home over NET #18 SDSU by 18
Home over NET #25 Colorado St by 2
Home over NET #30 Utah State by 13
Road over NET #42 Nevada by 1

If you compare those wins to Wake's arguably four biggest wins:

Home over NET #29 Florida by 11
Home over NET #48 UVA by 19
Home over NET #52 VPI by 23 (side note - VPI has a neutral site Q1 win over the MWC's Boise State)
Home over NET #56 Pitt by 33

including margin of victory, according to KP, WF's four largest wins are better than New Mexico's, and it is not particularly close. But, Quads only consider the Quad, and not margin

KP says beating VPI at home by 23 is better than beating SDSU at home by 18
KP says beating Florida at home by 11, UVA at home by 19, and Pitt at home by 33 are all better than any of New Mexico's other Q1 wins
 
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