I saw one scenario where Ohio would not have to be in play (may have already been mentioned here):
Solid Romney (76):
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Nebraska (5)
Oklahoma (7)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
Likely Romney (74):
Georgia (16)
Montana (3)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Leans Romney (31):
Arizona (11)
Indiana (11)
South Carolina (9)
That leave Romney with 181 EVs to start with that he should feel pretty comfortable about, meaning he needs 88 more EV's to get it to the House, where he would obviously win.
A sweep of these states would get him what he needs:
State (EV) - Current polling average
Florida (29) - Obama +2.0
North Carolina (15) - Romney +0.8
Virginia (13) - Obama +3.5
Missouri (10) - Romney +5.2
Colorado (9) - Obama +3.1
Iowa (6) - Obama +3.5
Nevada (6) - Obama +5.2
That would get him to 269 without Ohio. There is obviously a lot of ground to be made, but Nevada has a TON of Mormons, and I sincerely would not discount that fact. Organization there should not be a problem. Iowa is a little more difficult simply because Democrats have been a lot kinder to farming than Republicans in the past and there is some deep seated loyalty there. The fact that last night's debate was in Denver, Colorado HAS to give Romney a bump in the state, so that number could easily be closer to a pickem in a week. Missouri is looking good. Not sure about Virginia, that is going to be a really tough one, maybe the toughest in my opinion. North Carolina is up for grabs and Florida is always up for grabs.
If Ohio ever comes back into the picture (Obama +5.5 right now but I don't see that one with any inherent advantages like a Nevada) then this race truly does become tight. Right now Obama still holds a comfortable lead, but there is a path to the presidency without Ohio it seems. It is a difficult path, but stranger hanging chads, I mean things, have happened.
Source for info (
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html).