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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

PhDeac said:
An ex-CIA Dem vs. a college professor incumbent Pub. Hilarious.
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Everyone knows that the deep state has always been pro Dem.

Brat is a strange man. I think he's an econ prof at Randolph Macon. He beat Cantor because Cantor didn't take him seriously and because there was a small turnout overall with an avid tea bagger turnout. Brat is very much a tea bagger who is right with Trump on immigration. As I said earlier, his district has some rural white counties but is mostly Richmond and Fredericksburg exurbs. It's a conservative district overall, but also 1 that is well educated and filled with folks who care more about the cost of health insurance than with building a wall and starting tariff wars. Brat would be better off in my district (the 5th), and Comstock would have a better chance in Brat's district than hers because she's more of a generic Pub.
 
Luria is a 20 year Naval vet who owns a store that sells mermaid themed art and trinkets.

Spanberger is a former CIA operations officer who speaks multiple languages and runs a consulting firm for colleges and universes to improve recruiting and retention.

Both women are in their late 30s. Very impressive.
 
Sinema with at least a 7 point lead against any of the three potential GOP nominees in Arizona however in each instance at least 10% of respondents were uncommitted at the current time. Still, a good sign for Dems there early on.
 
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Sinema with at least a 7 point lead against any of the three potential GOP nominees in Arizona however in each instance at least 10% of respondents were uncommitted at the current time. Still, a good sign for Dems there early on.

Manchin up by 7-10 points over Morrisey in West Virginia based on polling from a couple weeks ago.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Sinema with at least a 7 point lead against any of the three potential GOP nominees in Arizona however in each instance at least 10% of respondents were uncommitted at the current time. Still, a good sign for Dems there early on.

Manchin up by 7-10 points over Morrisey in West Virginia based on polling from a couple weeks ago.
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Yeah, Manchin has had pretty healthy leads over Morrisey in numerous polls. We'll see if it holds up. He won in 2012 with just over 60%, so he's obviously pretty popular there. I'm also wondering if the WV teacher's strike, which actually generated a great deal of popular support, will have any effect.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Sinema with at least a 7 point lead against any of the three potential GOP nominees in Arizona however in each instance at least 10% of respondents were uncommitted at the current time. Still, a good sign for Dems there early on.

Manchin up by 7-10 points over Morrisey in West Virginia based on polling from a couple weeks ago.
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Sinema will roll if her opponent is Ward. Surprised to see her that far up on McSalley. But even if NV and AZ are Dem leans, it'll still be difficult taking back the senate because I see FL, IN and MO being slight Pub leans. And that's assuming Heitkamp and Tester hold on. Bredesen taking TN would help.
 
FL is definitely a Pub lean. Nelson has an extremely low profile for a former astronaut and 3 term Senator. Rick Scott is leading based on name recognition and the good will be bought during Irma.

I doubt Nelson can harness much of the blue wave momentum. Nelson’s hope depends on the governor’s race. If Gillum wins the primary, he may generate enough progressive momentum to get enough people out for Nelson. The Parkland kids may play a factor as well. High turnout from blue parts of the state would largely outweigh rural support.
 
It'll be interesting to see how down ballot races, and the number of people running, impact other races. Remember Run for Something's ads recruiting people to run against the 24 NRA A rated incumbents in the Florida state house? 19 of them now have opponents:

 
This is a week old, but related to the August special election for a congressional seat in Ohio. Leneghan is the House Freedom Caucus backed candidate, and she lost to the candidate favored by Pat Tiberi, who stepped down from the seat in January.

Congressional candidate Melanie Leneghan claims ballot-box fraud, asks Supreme Court to intervene

Leneghan's complaint asks the Supreme Court to order one of two things.

One option, she states, would be to have elections officials in Franklin County (as the most populous county in the 12th District) to certify the results without the ballots from the 16 Muskingum County precincts. If that happens, Leneghan would win the primary by about 1,400 votes, according to her complaint.

The other choice she offered would be to hold a new election in Muskingum County.
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James campaign: Mailer erroneously argues to 'defend' sanctuary cities

The U.S. Senate campaign of John James is doing damage control Monday after a mailer was mistakenly sent out to a large sample of Republican primary voters saying he would "defend" — instead of defund — sanctuary cities.

The mailer, which was meant to show how James, an Iraq combat veteran and Farmington Hills businessman, stands with President Trump on key issues such as opposing sanctuary cities. His GOP primary opponent, Grosse Pointe businessman Sandy Pensler, has run an ad saying James supports sanctuary cities because he gave a political donation to a Detroit council member who supports the idea.
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myDeaconmyhand said:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/el...ty-seeks-oust-three-progressive-women-n888666

Good grief. Rhode Island State Democratic party endorses 3 conservative primary challengers to progressive INCUMBENTS. Icing on the fucking cake, the incumbents are women, and the challengers are all pro-life men - one with ties to the alt-right, and one who was a registered Republican for the last 10 years.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics...arty-may-have-endorsed-a-trump-supporter.html
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I agree w you here. those endorsements are really shocking from a solidly blue state.
 
maybe they're endorsing people they know will lose?

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Woof, that's embarrassing. Sounds like the current incumbents were upstart challengers in 2016.

"When you beat the machine, they are going to come back at you hard," said Joe Dinkin, a spokesperson for the liberal Working Families Party, which endorsed all three women in 2016 and counted their victories as a signature accomplishment for the group.
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Something similar happened in PA, a progressive candidate for state rep backed by the Working Families party upset the incumbent / choice of the hyper-local Dem leaders in 2016. In 2018 they tried to win the seat back - the (new) incumbent won, but it was close. (Credit to them for not backing a pro life dude, though, at least they weren't that out of touch.)

It's a reminder that (1) people don't give up power willingly; (2) we have to pay attention to even the hyper local elections, they often control endorsements; and (3) some party rules are old and stupid.

In addition, the Rhode Island Democratic Party Women’s Caucus is barred from supporting candidates not backed by the party, according to one board member, Joanne Borodemos.
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Also, good that it made national news.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/el...ty-seeks-oust-three-progressive-women-n888666

Good grief. Rhode Island State Democratic party endorses 3 conservative primary challengers to progressive INCUMBENTS. Icing on the fucking cake, the incumbents are women, and the challengers are all pro-life men - one with ties to the alt-right, and one who was a registered Republican for the last 10 years.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics...arty-may-have-endorsed-a-trump-supporter.html
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That's impressive, even for Rhode Island standards...arguably one of the most corrupt and poorly managed states in the country.

Looks like some of these progressive incumbents ousted democratic incumbents in 2016 - and once in office they called out the state party for its bullshit (rightfully so). Now the state party is hitting back...going as low as backing a self-avowed alt right clown.

This is a good case study in how out of control and mindless party politics can be. Serve the people, not the party.
 
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