FWIW and a small VA update, I was speaking with a friend who is an active Dem, and he agreed with me that VA-5 is too tall a task for Cockbern. But in addition to VA-10 and 2 being in play, he also said VA-7 could well have an upset where Spanberger is running against Dave Brat - the tea bagger who took down Cantor a few years ago. My reaction was no way. The district has most of the West End suburbs of Richmond (Chesterfield, Henrico and Hanover counties) up to Culpeper and just west of Fredericksburg. The Richmond and Fredericksburg exurbs are similar to the 16 exurb districts that turned blue last November - very white, well educated and mostly conservative. Brat will heavily win Culpeper, Orange and Louisa (mostly redneck rural counties). But the real population centers are the Richmond and Fredericksburg exurbs, so upon further reflection, my friend, who wasn't drinking the VA-5 koolaid, may just have a point. Add to that Spanberger is former CIA, so she's not exactly a Bernie Sanders type of Dem. And she's making health care her biggest issue, the most important issue in the VA exit polls last November. So just a bit more food for thought.