RChildress107
Well-known member
The funny thing is it's probably more likely for the above things to both be true about a player than they are to be mutually exclusive, on the average.
The nature of the draft is that teams exchange risk for ceiling in the lottery. Hence more unproven freshmen go early and known quantities go late.
A 230 pound freshman 7 footer can have a hot year shooting college 3's and get drafted 20 spots in front of a rock solid PF. Boom or bust wins out in the lottery.
This is nonsense. As a general rule, players that drop out of the top half of the first round don't become all stars.
Most players with "potential" never reach that potential. Which is why guys who are highly rated in mock drafts based on potential often fall when they return and don't meet that potential.
Returning when you could go in the first round is rare. Reaching your perceived potential is also rare. Those two things operate completely independently of each other.
But if we are going to assume that JC falls into the second category of rare, then examples of the first category that came back and dropped are of little use unless they later went on to become borderline all stars.