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2020 Democratic Presidential Nominees

TownieDeac said:
First, the border conditions now didn't start when Trump got in office. The detention centers were active five years ago. Trump is just saying the quiet parts out loud because he's a moron and a racist. Parents were separated from their children and people were sleeping on cement floors for months under Obama, too.

Forgiving student debt is popular.

And the fact is no candidate is going on about abolishing ICE, it's just the subject of Republican attack ads.

Letting incarcerated prisoners vote is the morally correct thing to do as well, but I don't suspect that factors in with your calculations (or know your thoughts on it personally).

What kills me about this is we'll regularly get Republican candidates talking about like...abolishing the Department of Education or dismantling the EPA. Trump has more or less gutted the administrative state. Yet Dems are utterly terrified to do anything that isn't cravenly technocratic and incremental. They'd rather court the 2% of the electorate who went from Obama to Trump than the 40% of non-voters who might get off the couch for a candidate with ideas.
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Most likely they'll vote Dem this time anyway and then vote Republican in 2024 and/or 2028 because they're just contrarians who hate government and blame the president.
 
I'll toss a bone to the Obama defenders here and say he got trade right in a way I don't think Sanders or Warren are. We're seeing the natural problems of a trade war right now. Free trade is the single greatest deterrent to global war that exists, better than nukes or diplomacy. A global economy is good.

My arguments against unfettered free trade are where they harm the environment or keep people exploited or enslaved. Apart from that, I'm very capitalist when it comes to global trade. Plenty of successful dem socialist countries in Europe participate in global trade; I just think the US should model social policy like successful northern European countries.
 
TownieDeac said:
I'll toss a bone to the Obama defenders here and say he got trade right in a way I don't think Sanders or Warren are. We're seeing the natural problems of a trade war right now. Free trade is the single greatest deterrent to global war that exists, better than nukes or diplomacy. A global economy is good.

My arguments against unfettered free trade are where they harm the environment or keep people exploited or enslaved. Apart from that, I'm very capitalist when it comes to global trade. Plenty of successful dem socialist countries in Europe participate in global trade; I just think the US should model social policy like successful northern European countries.
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Good post. The focus on protecting American jobs through trade policy is misguided. We need to protect American workers through domestic policy and empower people to create jobs in their communities and have more flexibility to work how and when they want and know their health care will be covered. People can be more innovative if they don't have to scrape by to live.
 
TownieDeac said:
I'll toss a bone to the Obama defenders here and say he got trade right in a way I don't think Sanders or Warren are. We're seeing the natural problems of a trade war right now. Free trade is the single greatest deterrent to global war that exists, better than nukes or diplomacy. A global economy is good.

My arguments against unfettered free trade are where they harm the environment or keep people exploited or enslaved. Apart from that, I'm very capitalist when it comes to global trade. Plenty of successful dem socialist countries in Europe participate in global trade; I just think the US should model social policy like successful northern European countries.
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So it appears Trump's biggest issue with China is that they are not keeping their markets open for our products, and they're stealing our intellectual property. Trump (or more his aides) seem to have a point here.
 
He seems to rail on currency manipulation a lot too, which I also think is a fair criticism.
 
Yeah I don’t think that’s actually Trump’s problem. That might be the framing that his handlers try to attach to his position but Trumps problem with China is based on his misunderstanding of trade deficits and no one has had the sack to correct his ignorance.
 
06deacon said:
Yeah I don’t think that’s actually Trump’s problem. That might be the framing that his handlers try to attach to his position but Trumps problem with China is based on his misunderstanding of trade deficits and no one has had the sack to correct his ignorance.
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Yeah. Politicians don’t get points for doing the wrong things for the right reasons.
 
TownieDeac said:
I'll toss a bone to the Obama defenders here and say he got trade right in a way I don't think Sanders or Warren are. We're seeing the natural problems of a trade war right now. Free trade is the single greatest deterrent to global war that exists, better than nukes or diplomacy. A global economy is good.

My arguments against unfettered free trade are where they harm the environment or keep people exploited or enslaved. Apart from that, I'm very capitalist when it comes to global trade. Plenty of successful dem socialist countries in Europe participate in global trade; I just think the US should model social policy like successful northern European countries.
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Good. And I think Obama would agree with you and did in fact take into account environmental and human trafficking issues in negotiating the TPP (my recollection was that a few of the countries like Indonesia had been weak on human trafficking). Past US administrations have taken these issues into account when working out trade deals with our Euro, Canadian, Mexican and Pacific allies. I'm not sure how you think we're any different in trade negotiations than are our Canadian and Euro allies. Or now maybe our once allies. Now we give favorable weapons deals to human rights violators.

As for the senate, good the fuck luck getting that back in 2020 or 2022. And you don't think the DNC is doing what they can to get it back? Whatever you think of Schumer, he's out there trying to recruit the strongest candidate for each state. Neither map is promising. In 2020, Jones is dog meat in AL, and Gardner is probably dog meat in CO, so that's a wash. We have potential shots at AZ, NC, ME and maybe IA. AZ is the likeliest because Kelly is a strong candidate, but there isn't as much ticket splitting these days, and the only nominee who probably won't hurt his chances there is maybe Biden. IA is crazy these days because the midterms went well, but Ernst and Trump won easily there before. Add to that Vilsack won't run, so that's a long shot. Picking off Tillis will depend more on who is at the top of the ticket like in AZ. Picking off Collins much less so. 2022 has more red seats up, but the vast majority of them are in ruby red states.

Also think of it this way. The house should in theory mostly be blue because there are more blue districts out there, but gerrymandering in 2010 negated that advantage. The senate should in theory be mostly red because there are 27 red states and 23 blue states currently. And the senate would have been red earlier had their candidates not liked to talk about rape and being a witch.
 
Tom Steyer is close to qualifying. I don’t understand why people donate to billionaires.
 
PhDeac said:
Tom Steyer is close to qualifying. I don’t understand why people donate to billionaires.
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The organization he started to push to impeach Trump has a contact list of over 8 million people. I could've sworn he claimed he would not use the list to fund raise for his presidential campaign.... but he did.

BTW, credit to Kirsten Gillibrand for not whining about the debate rules. I wish she would've gained more traction, but I'm glad she'll still be in the Senate, and raising money to elect more women.
 
wakelaw13 said:
So that he can qualify for the debate?
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And why would they want that? He could do some real good funding state and local races around the country.
 
TownieDeac said:
I'll toss a bone to the Obama defenders here and say he got trade right in a way I don't think Sanders or Warren are. We're seeing the natural problems of a trade war right now. Free trade is the single greatest deterrent to global war that exists, better than nukes or diplomacy. A global economy is good.

My arguments against unfettered free trade are where they harm the environment or keep people exploited or enslaved. Apart from that, I'm very capitalist when it comes to global trade. Plenty of successful dem socialist countries in Europe participate in global trade; I just think the US should model social policy like successful northern European countries.
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Yep
 
06deacon said:
Yeah I don’t think that’s actually Trump’s problem. That might be the framing that his handlers try to attach to his position but Trumps problem with China is based on his misunderstanding of trade deficits and no one has had the sack to correct his ignorance.
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Yep
 
Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are competing for mostly the same voters. Aren't they going to be forced to go after each other at some point in this process? And when that eventually happens, how is that going to play out? Will the loser between those two be able to get behind the other one or will it turn into a bloodbath that will prevent either of them from beating Trump if one of them is the nominee?

It seems to me that those two splitting 35-40% of the vote is buying time for Biden to hang on with his 30% or so of the total. I haven't seen anyone who really wants to vote for Biden because they think he is the best person for the job.
 
TownieDeac said:
...What kills me about this is we'll regularly get Republican candidates talking about like...abolishing the Department of Education or dismantling the EPA. Trump has more or less gutted the administrative state. Yet Dems are utterly terrified to do anything that isn't cravenly technocratic and incremental. They'd rather court the 2% of the electorate who went from Obama to Trump than the 40% of non-voters who might get off the couch for a candidate with ideas.
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This paragraph did not get enough attention. It is a really good take.
 
Uncle Joe was in my hometown today (Spartanburg, SC) and he rocked it. Looked really good and sounded like a great candidate. If this Joe is on ticket, Don is dead meat.
 
Jesus, Tulsi. Way to burn bridges. Hard not to argue she’s a Russian plant.

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