cville deac
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 14, 2011
- Messages
- 15,200
- Reaction score
- 902
I would give Bernie the advantage in Iowa. It is a caucus state. I think what Nate Cohn wrote was pretty compelling.
If Biden wins Iowa, this race is effectively over.
I agree IA being a caucus state favors Sanders, and I think he'll outperform his polling numbers there accordingly. But I still see IA being very close and agree with District that the end result could well be a bit muddy.
That said, I don't see how you can claim the race is over if Biden wins IA. Historically, IA isn't always predictive. Add to that Sanders will win neighboring NH has a good shot at NV, another caucus state. Biden's only February win could be SC. Add to that Biden is having to fend off not only Buttigieg but also Klobuchar and Bloomberg, who are both starting to poll halfway decently. If it's a 2 horse race by Super Tuesday, Biden should do well that day. But if it's still a 6-7 horse race, that could really dilute the establishment vote, and Bernie could come out of ST in 1st position. I have nowhere near your level of confidence in Biden at this point. I also don't think the Rogan endorsement hurts him in any way.
That said, I agree wholeheartedly that Hillary slung little to no mud Sanders' way in 2016, although she and her minions did do their best to rig the primary process. There was a Politico piece this morning talking about this. Conservative news outlets like the Hill are quick to praise candidates like Sanders and Gabbard, but as soon as he sews up the nomination, they'll unleash war on him. I know Dems don't want to enrage each others' supporters, but Sanders recent surge is going to trigger more attacks.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/27/democrats-bernie-sanders-rise-105825