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2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

DeaconSig said:
Warren’s campaign is dead. Which sucks.
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Disagree. She should stay in it till the bitter end, even if she's only getting 10% of the vote. Klobuchar needs to get out soon. Under 5% in NV is horrible. I take that result and her lack of $$ as meaning she can't do anything outside of the 1st 2 boutique states. Steyer will have a solid SC showing, but if he doesn't do anything on ST, he needs to go. OTOH, maybe Bloomberg's awful debate, and Biden's senility onset could end up meaning he could be an alternative to Sanders. Bloomberg's liabilities as a candidate are likely too big to overcome. He won't get out before the next debate, but if he doesn't show significant improvement, it's pretty obvious he is not the alternative to Trump. My fear is that Biden and Bloomberg won't leave the race soon enough. Which means that if Sanders keeps racking up victories and 2nd places with 25-35% of the vote, there is a great chance he has the most delegates at the end of the day, but not 1990. Which is why Warren needs to stay in this thing. She could end up as a compromise nominee or at least a kingmaker at the convention.

And I completely agree with Connor that depressing is our current state of politics. Maybe it gets better, or maybe Putin is pleased no matter the result.
 
MHBDemon said:
As avalon posted Bernie is the only candidate in the last 50 years to win the popular vote in the first 3 primaries. This idea that people aren’t unifying around his message is counter-factual.
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He’s winning specifically because people aren’t unifying. He hasn’t gotten 50% of the popular vote anywhere. He hasn’t even surpassed his numbers from 2016.
 
MHBDemon said:
Ahh the unifying message of believing southerners are dumb.
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So yeah, we don't like how those states vote, so they shouldn't get a chance to vote? That's more undemocratic than caucuses and the EC.

Creamy, you may be surprised how well Sanders does in the south. Not saying he'll win every state, but he has a campaign structure in every state - a luxury that 1st time candidates don't have. And he has his followers in every state. So while he may not win every southern state, I'd be surprised if he's not top 3 in every state.
 
I prefer Buttigieg’s unifying messages of calling grassroots organizations “dark money groups” and “how will we pay for it.”
 
cville deac said:
So yeah, we don't like how those states vote, so they shouldn't get a chance to vote? That's more undemocratic than caucuses and the EC.

Creamy, you may be surprised how well Sanders does in the south. Not saying he'll win every state, but he has a campaign structure in every state - a luxury that 1st time candidates don't have. And he has his followers in every state. So while he may not win every southern state, I'd be surprised if he's not top 3 in every state.
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I didn’t say that. I just said that when it comes to politics and many other things, southerners have terrible takes.
 
ImTheCaptain said:
The "RJ prediction of Hillary winning 370 EC votes" of 2020
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I'm not sure I ever said 370, 320+ maybe. Which she could have gotten if she wasn't so lazy and arrogant.

Many, many Dems are scared to death that Bernie will get Trump re-elected. I can't remember a major party candidate that will have more soft targets that Bernie. Trump may have been close, but many of his issues were baked into how the public knew him.
 
MHBDemon said:
I prefer Buttigieg’s unifying messages of calling grassroots organizations “dark money groups” and “how will we pay for it.”
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Why not have Santa be Brenie's running mate? Santa may not be able to pay for all Bernie has promised and without sixty votes in the Senate even the most basic of his pie-in-the-sky promises will never get implemented.

How do you think a video of Bernie supporting Castro for a quarter of a century over JFK will impact voters when it is played tens of thousands of times in toss-up states? If you don't think this will happen, you are totally delusional.

Bernie also diffuses the Russia is helping Trump meme as they are helping him, too.

Dead man walking.
 
RJKarl said:
Why not have Santa be Brenie's running mate? Santa may not be able to pay for all Bernie has promised and without sixty votes in the Senate even the most basic of his pie-in-the-sky promises will never get implemented.

How do you think a video of Bernie supporting Castro for a quarter of a century over JFK will impact voters when it is played tens of thousands of times in toss-up states? If you don't think this will happen, you are totally delusional.

Bernie also diffuses the Russia is helping Trump meme as they are helping him, too.

Dead man walking.
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BDS
 
It sucks that the primary is basically over after two caucuses and a primary unless a billionaire can buy his way into making it competitive. It would be even worse if this just turns into a 46 coronation for Bernie. We need a competitive process in which all Democrat voters get to vote for their favorite candidate feel like they have a say.

We desperately need a national multistage primary.
 
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CreamyGoodness said:
Let's see how Bernie does in the Carolina's, VA, GA, AR, KY, TN, LA and FL. Then let's see how he does in Texas. I also don't see him running away with things in the Midwest.

He tied an inexperienced Mayor in Iowa. Didn't steamroll in NH(Which he should have), although it was a comfortable win. Nevada is the first state that he's shown true strength and momentum, IMO.

Bernie has a long ways to go before he has the pleasure of getting steamrolled by Trump.
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I totally get that Bernie has a long way to go, but Why should we care at all what states like AR, KY, TN and LA, think about a democratic nominee. Those states are never going to vote for any of these candidates in November.
 
birdman said:
I totally get that Bernie has a long way to go, but Why should we care at all what states like AR, KY, TN and LA, think about a democratic nominee. Those states are never going to vote for any of these candidates in November.
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The Dem primary should be a chance to mobilize and grow support for down ballot candidates who have a chance to win even if the presidential nominee doesn’t.
 
Strickland33 said:
Whatever makes it easier for up to pull the lever for trump, my dude
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Yeah, the polls were off by an average of about 1% in 2016. The race was tightening the last 2 weeks and was down to 3-4% the last week, and Clinton won by 2+%. Given how difficult polling has become, that's not that far off. And I remember Nate and 538 giving Clinton only something like a 67-70% chance to win, which was less than most other organizations. And to think that either side is going to win 40 states is ludicrous. Barring a serious recession or cataclysmic event that might significantly influence the outcome, it's a close race. Right now, Sabato has it 248 apiece when you count the safes, likelies and leans with 42 EVs as toss-ups. Even if you take away every lean from the blue column, you're still over 200. Add to that Trump will most likely lose the popular vote. Creamy's assertions clearly are not supported by the current data.
 
PhDeac said:
It sucks that the primary is basically over after two caucuses and a primary unless a billionaire can buy his way into making it competitive. It would be even worse if this just turns into a 46 coronation for Bernie. We need a competitive process in which all Democrat voters get to vote for their favorite candidate feel like they have a say.

We desperately need a national multistage primary.
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Mark Shields was lamenting this a bit on Friday night. And he was pointing out that neither the media nor the other candidates have been pushing Sanders on issues like his support for Ortega or honeymooning in the USSR. Now that Sanders is the frontrunner, I wouldn't be surprised if at least the other candidates begin hitting him, even at the risk of offending his supporters.
 
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