As of now, I think the Dems keep NV (due to demographics and expecting Clinton to win there) and pick up IL, WI, IN and NH. After that, Clinton's margin of victory in states will make a big difference in the other races. There is not quite as much ballot splitting as there was 20-30 years ago. Senators like Rubio, Toomey and McCain will outperform Trump by some. So a 2-4% margin for Clinton in 1 of those states might be survivable. But if her margin is more like 6-9%, that's going to be awfully difficult to survive. In addition to the other states on your list, I'd add MO. Blunt isn't tremendously popular there and could well get outperformed by Trump.