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2021 Carolina Panthers Thread - Time for the 2022 thread

tigerswood said:
Where are those grades coming from? Kiper just said we had his favorite draft of the night.
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Did he say favorite or interesting/notable? I thought it was the latter when SVP asked him.

Fuck Your Couch said:
also "analytics" always says more picks is better covid or no covid

https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...74c904-675c-11e9-a1b6-b29b90efa879_story.html
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OK. So it's smart to trade from the 1st to the 2nd. Do you have an article saying it's smart to trade down from the 2nd to the 3rd and the 3rd to the 4th?
 
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I love the Marshall pick and would have been happy with it even without trading back.
 
i mean just trading down without getting extra picks? the whole article is about the value of picks in general being greater than the slot that they are in

we didnt trade a 2nd for a 3rd and then a 3rd for a 4th

we gained more picks each time. and no one would've really blinked if we took marshall at 39, who we took at 59 after trading down twice, which kind of proves the point
 
the premise of preferring to trade down early doesn't make sense either. if anything the later the draft gets the more uncertainty there is and the more of a lotto ticket scenario we're dealing with

you rather have one ticket than 3 or 4?
 
I think Panthers fans are just rightfully skeptical of mid round draft picks after watching Hurney draft so many stiffs in those rounds for a decade.
 
based on the "trade value chart" the panthers gained back today what they gave up in the darnold trade in draft capital
 
BiffTannen said:
I think Panthers fans are just rightfully skeptical of mid round draft picks after watching Hurney draft so many stiffs in those rounds for a decade.
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but he nailed every single first rounder and people wanted us to trade down there too
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
i mean just trading down without getting extra picks? the whole article is about the value of picks in general being greater than the slot that they are in

we didnt trade a 2nd for a 3rd and then a 3rd for a 4th

we gained more picks each time. and no one would've really blinked if we took marshall at 39, who we took at 59 after trading down twice, which kind of proves the point
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The article is about the nominal difference between high 1st round picks and 2nd round picks.

Here is the Massey and Thaler (2012) article at the heart of the article:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=697121

What is the likelihood that a player is better than the next player chosen at his position (e.g., linebacker) by some reasonable measure of performance, such as games started in his first five seasons?After all, this is the question teams face as they decide whether to trade up to acquire a specific player. The answer is 52 percent. Across all rounds, all positions, all years, the chance that a player proves to be better than the next best alternative is only slightly better than a coin-flip.
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But those coin flips add up. The Bears took an OT with the #39 we traded. Based on this heuristic, the OT at #39 is slightly better than the next OT at #42, and then the next one at #45, and the next one at #46, #51, #53, before we could have taken one at #59 and we did take one at #70.

Now that's not the main analysis in the article, but I think it's quite faulty analysis because it's likely skewed because few late round picks are even likely to make a roster. So it's more than a coin flip in the early rounds. It's also a faulty analysis because in early rounds, teams aren't looking for mere starters. They're looking for great players who can lead them to championships. Those players are recognized as Pro-Bowlers and All-Pros and are much more likely to have been picked in higher rounds.
 
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okay we can get into a empircal debate about research analysis later.

but i do want us to acknowledge that common wisdom in the nfl is smart and successful teams like the pats and seahawks trade down often.

this isn't without context, trading down randomly makes no sense, the point of the article is people trade too much to trade up. if the trade value charts are worth anything that is consistently shown, and we "gained" with every trade back we made today
 
Gaining on trade backs isn't that hard because everyone has the charts. And that last trade (the one I have the most problem with) may not even gain according to the chart as I posted above. There seems to be a major gap in talent between 3rd to 4th, so giving up a 3rd for two 4th and a mid-5th seems nuts.
 
gaining on the trade backs isnt hard because the team trading up thinks they know something about a certain player that is unknowable.

the last trade was the best trade. we only had 6th round picks tomorrow before it, instead of a late 3rd rounder today, we have a high 4th and a 5th tomorrow, and probably a high 4th next year because the texans will likley suck ass.
 
It is definitely a frustrating draft for fans based on perceived need and who was available relative to those needs when they kept trading back.

That said, I think when viewing the 4 players separate from where they were picked, they are all good players and it's clear what Rhule and Fitterer are doing. There is no current "window" in which they are trying to win. They want a lot of potentially fittable players to sort through and make into what they want without regard for finding the perfect fit now. The defense is pretty much all second year guys. The offense is getting overhauled with Rhule's desired traits, and I don't think anyone on the current offense is in the future plans unless they convince CMC to get "injured" again for the couple of years to preserve his longevity. Whether it is Darnold with his age or a rookie QB next year, they are not remotely concerned about winning now. They are trying to get Rhule's system in place for the long haul. However, that assumes Rhule's system is worth a damn, and who knows about that. If he sucks, this roster will be flat fucked for a long time.
 
I’m still giddy over the Marshall pick. He’s like Sage Surratt but with speed and athleticism. Also a great basketball player.
 
Pretty fascinating Panthers draft. Fan assessment seems all over the place based on what I’m reading. As with many drafts we probably won’t know for a year or two. Unless Darnold’s potential really never materializes this year and Fields or Jones start looking good.
 
I thought it was a solid day 2. I didn't like Marshall being mocked in the late 1st, but he was a good value where you got him, and Brady had him at LSU. And Tremble was the last decent TE in a weak and thin TE draft. The PFF guys and Pauline both had him and Christensen with 3rd round grades. I still see the only bad move the last couple of days was picking up Darnold's option.
 
Not sure why you think picking up the option at $18.5 million is a bad move. He’ll almost certainly be good enough to justify a middle of the pack salary. Our other options were to let him walk or pay him more after a good year, bring in Teddy B or Alex Dalton next year for $10 million, hand the team to a rookie, or trade the farm for Rodgers. And we can still trade Darnold for Watson if we need to.
 
I only liked the move as a 1 year stopgap before getting Watson next offseason and thought he was a mild upgrade over Bridgewater. I'd have preferred any of the rookie QBs to him. In 27 games at USC, he had 22 picks and 20 fumbles, 14 lost. It's not just at the previously dysfunctional NYJ that he had ball security problems. He can look perfectly fine some games against mediocre Ds. But against good Ds with creative DCs, he routinely has bad games and turns it over. I liked what I saw from Rhule and Brady last year, and maybe Brady can somewhat fix Darnold. But Darnold has a low ceiling, and I don't see winning playoff games a year or 2 down the road with him at the helm.
 
SC DEAC said:
OK- finally! his pro day results sound great. his ESPN profile says he has short arms for an OT- that sounds bad.
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The more I read on Christensen the more I like and definitely think he was Panthers targeted OT from outset and why the trade back from 2nd to 3rd for extra picks and then jumping up 3 spots to get him.

Interesting he graded out this past year better than ‘19 Sewell, so clearly can see the guy is no slouch.
 
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