WEEK 14 PREVIEW
Week 14: A Game of Inches
It all comes down to this week, one more week with everything on the line. Some of us are already moving on to college basketball season (KU 2022 National Champs incoming), some of us have been prepping for the playoffs for a couple of weeks, but for several teams, Week 14 means life or death in this 2021 fantasy football season. To paraphrase Al Pacino in one of my favorite not-very-good-but-also-so-great sports movies, fantasy football is a game of inches. One yard here, one catch there, one random kickoff return, little bits and pieces add up over the season. And despite all those little details for every team, we come into the final week of the regular season with three playoff spots still up for grabs and seven teams that have a possibility of getting one of those spots. Sure, some teams have better chances than others, but anything can happen in this crazy game called fantasy football. Because of the nature of this week and what is on the line, I am going to go team by team for those teams that still have a playoff chance and give as good a rundown of permutations that would need to happen to get that team into the playoffs. Bear with me, this one will be a doozy, and please let me know if I overlook anything. I will go from worst chances to best chances, let's take a look:
WEEK 14 PLAYOFF PERMUTATIONS
Lone Wolf (6-7; Playoff Odds: 8%)
Must Win: Yes (vs. Fighting Cocks)
Other Outcomes Needed: W-S DeacHawk loses (vs. Psychos); Mrs. I/O Deac loses (vs. Mr. I/O)
Additional Tiebreakers: Must finish above all 7-7 teams except Fighting Cocks & SD3 on points
We start with a Gooner column favorite, Lone Wolf. An up and down season filled with missed chances and broken hearts still somehow clings to life with one week to go, though Lone Wolf needs as much help as anyone to secure one of the final playoff spots. Lone Wolf is in a difficult spot in that he is reliant on multiple results going his way in addition to winning his own matchup to clinch a playoff spot. However it is doable as both DeacHawk and Mrs. I/O are projected to lose their matchups at present. But he faces a stiff test in the Fighting Cocks of Appalachia who will also be looking to win and secure their own playoff berth. It's been a wild season for Lone Wolf and he is just one week away from a second consecutive miracle run to the playoffs, we will see if the results pan out for him.
Mrs. I/O Deac (7-6; Playoff Odds: 11%)
Must Win: Yes (vs. Mr. I/O)
Other Outcomes Needed: W-S DeacHawk loses (vs. Psychos); SD3 loses (vs. Peach) OR Fighting Cocks loses (vs. Lone Wolf)
Additional Tiebreakers: None
Alternate Scenarios: Mrs. I/O wins AND Young Buck loses (vs. Pickle)
Mrs. I/O has one of the more straightforward paths to the playoffs due to how Week 14 matchups shape up. With a win and an 8-6 record, Mrs. I/O would need only a DeacHawk loss to Sleepy's Psychos and either an SD3 loss vs. Peach or a Fighting Cocks loss vs. Lone Wolf to ensure that she finishes with one of the best eight records and a playoff berth. This is fortunate for Mrs. I/O as she rivals Lone Wolf for having some of the worst head to head tiebreakers against other playoff contenders, so she must finish a full game up on all fellow wildcard challengers to secure her playoff spot. Additionally, Mrs. I/O is in a unique position to still win her division and get an automatic playoff berth; with a win over her life partner and a Young Buck loss to Pickle, Mrs. I/O would win the Davis Division due to her head to head tieberaker with Young Buck. The I/Os have to navigate the tricky situation of one of them contending for the playoffs and the other eliminated, but they seem like standup individuals so I doubt any accusations of shenanigans will come up. Best of luck to the I/Os this week, cheer on Peach/Wolf loud and proud!
Lazy-Eyed Psychos (6-7; Playoff Odds: 19%)
Must Win: Yes (vs. W-S DeacHawk)
Other Outcomes Needed: Mrs. I/O loses (vs. Mr. I/O); SD3 loses (vs. Peach)
Additional Tiebreakers: Must finish above SD3 on points
Another comeback kid in 2021, Sleepy has put together a pretty solid back half of the season after a rough 1-4 start. But to complete the comeback, Sleepy needs some help from a couple of 7-6 teams losing to have a shot. Unlike the above teams, though, Sleepy's tiebreak situation is fairly strong. He has head to head wins against Lone Wolf and Mrs. I/O, and a win against DeacHawk this week would mean all that if results break his way, all that would be needed is to finish above a losing SD3 on points, a likely outcome if SD3 loses and Sleepy starts the week with a 26.92 point cushion. It isn't an easy road by any means, but both teams he needs to lose are projected to do so at present, and he has a projected victory on his hands against DeacHawk. It would be a remarkable run to nab the 8 seed, wishing good things for you Sleepy.
W-S DeacHawk (7-6; Playoff Odds: 25%)
Must Win: Yes (vs. Psychos)
Other Outcomes Needed: None
Additional Tiebreakers: None
DeacHawk is in the enviable position of "win and in", an interesting spot to be in for a team at 7-6. With head to head tiebreakers against all three other 7-6 teams, there is no scenario where DeacHawk will not be in the playoffs if he beats Sleepy's Lazy-Eyed Psychos. But that's pretty much where the good news ends. Projections do not favor DeacHawk this week as only QB Aaron Rodgers is projected to score double digit points, while Sleepy gets his whole roster contingent back from injury and bye week for Week 14, making DeacHawk's road to victory much tougher than I imagine he would like. DeacHawk will have to hope that one or two of his skill position guys greatly overperform their expected totals to really feel comfortable, and hope that some of Sleepy's Psychos maybe don't have the weeks that they could have. It'll be interesting either way, best of luck DeacHawk.
SD3 (7-6; Playoff Odds: 50%)
Must Win: Technically no, but becomes really hard if not (vs. Peach)
Other Outcomes Needed: If wins, Young Buck wins (vs. Pickle) OR Mrs. I/O loses (vs. Mr. I/O) (needs YB to win Davis Division) AND DeacHawk loses (vs. Psychos); if loses, DeacHawk wins (vs. Psychos), Fighting Cocks loses (vs. Lone Wolf), Mrs. I/O loses (vs. Mr. I/O)
Additional Tiebreakers: If SD3 loses and Psychos beat DeacHawk, possible to still make it over Psychos if SD3 makes up 26.93 points on Psychos to have a chance
ESPN Playoff Odds predictions have SD3 as essentially a coinflip for the playoffs, and if you look at all the weird ways that SD3 can make the playoffs, it makes sense. There are a lot of permutations that can see SD3 slip into one of the bottom seeds if he loses, but the easiest way for SD3 to give himself the best chance is to just win outright against Peach. If SD3 can win his game, the road becomes much simpler: a win from Young Buck or loss from Mrs. I/O gives SD3 the tiebreaker in the wildcard race and a DeacHawk loss would clinch the spot. If DeacHawk were to win while SD3 wins, Mrs. I/O wins, and Young Buck loses, based on my calculations SD3 would be on the short end of the tiebreaker stick and lose out just barely (as would Fighting Cocks). The amount of things that would have to go against SD3 in the event of a win in tandem with the amount of things that would have to go right for SD3 if he loses seems like it does amount to a coin flip, so maybe ESPN is onto something. SD3 I'm sure will be hoping for something a bit simpler this weekend, but fantasy is rarely simple. Rooting for you, SD3.
Fighting Cocks (7-6; Playoff Odds: 87%)
Must Win: No, but would cause problems if it happens (vs. Lone Wolf)
Other Outcomes Needed: If wins, Young Buck wins (vs. Pickle) or Mrs. I/O loses (vs. Mr. I/O) OR SD3 loses (vs. Peach) OR DeacHawk loses (vs. Psychos); If loses, Mrs. I/O loses (vs. Mr. I/O) AND DeacHawk loses (vs. Psychos) AND SD3 loses (vs. Peach)
Additional Tiebreakers: None
Fighting Cocks has an eerily similar situation to SD3, though his considerably higher playoff odds can be attributed to his needing only one result of the many possible in his favor rather than all of them due to his clear points tiebreaker lead. The Cocks have had ample opportunity to outright clinch their spot that their points position would indicate they deserve, but so far when a win would do it, it has eluded them despite often being projected to do so. If the Cocks were to find themselves on the wrong end again, they still have chances to get in but will need considerable help as while their points tiebreaker is elite, their head to head tiebreakers leave a lot to be desired. It should be a relatively stress free weekend for the Cocks, but if things start to go sideways in their own matchup, the Cocks will be looking around a little panicky and hoping that those other 7-6 teams are struggling as well. Best of luck to you, Cocks.
redwing (8-5; Playoff Odds: 99%)
Must Win: No, but a win would clinch
Other Outcomes Needed: Mrs. I/O loses (vs. Mr. I/O) OR Pinfish loses (vs. Goon Squad)
Additional Tiebreakers: None
The most straightforward of them all: win and in for redwing. If any of the 7-6 teams loses in Week 14, that will also clinch the spot based on record. If the Pinfish lose to Goon Squad (lol, as if), redwing would clinch even with a loss based on head to head tiebreaker (Pinfish have already clinched). I debated whether or not to even include redwing in this as not only would a ton of results have to go against redwing but he would also have to lose considerable ground in overall points to ever be at risk. But he does not have 100% playoff odds and has not technically clinched, therefore he is here. But it should be a totally stress free weekend at the redwing house, enjoy the mafia couch with GoalieMom (say hello for me, miss you guys).
GOONER'S GALLANT GUESSES
Once more into the breach, dear friends. Going for the 10-0 this week, don't let me down people that I pick.
Best of luck to all in Week 14, it has been a fun season. Especially good luck to those still challenging for the playoffs, can't wait to see how it all turns out!