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A Closer Look @ Bz's Opponents (KenPom Ranking & W/L's)

"We needed to improve in the late season and in the post-season. Wake Forest did not meet that goal sufficiently this year. We were 16-17 in March over the past three seasons...I took a look at everything statistical and there was a significant decline from February to March, and even more so from March into tournament play"-Ron Wellman, 4/7/10


2nd half of Bz's last 5 seasons = 11-57, .192

This is sports board post of the year material right here. Wow. Damn Bzzz.
 
Aww thats cute, you sure are a guy id love to be around OGB. Sorry I dont see the point of yet another thread that is intended to bash bzz as a coach. We already know that hes not good. The fact that im a stats major and have absolutely no desire to do any amount of work to prove what is easily visable about this team and bzz weighed heavily on my first response.

I shine my own shoes and don't eat at McDonald's, so I don't think you have to worry about being around me too often.
 
"We needed to improve in the late season and in the post-season. Wake Forest did not meet that goal sufficiently this year. We were 16-17 in March over the past three seasons...I took a look at everything statistical and there was a significant decline from February to March, and even more so from March into tournament play"-Ron Wellman, 4/7/10


2nd half of Bz's last 5 seasons = 11-57, .192

Were we completely blacklisted or something and Wellman's friend was the only coach who would have us?
 
2/4 Update

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Facepalm

Wellman has come out of this looking so bad.

To you and me and 90% of the tiedyed nation, but nothing happens. Apparently Wellman has pictures of Hatch with either a live boy or a dead girl. I guess there is one other option - that Hatch is behind it all and has micro-managed Wellman into these stupid decisions.
 
Tau, what were your opinions on Herb and Lowe?
 
Ph I thought Herb was a good coach, as good as we've had at NCSU since V. He wasn't the most exciting guy but had an identity to his offense, and more times than not got his guys to try on defense. Love Lowe for taking the job when it looked like everyone was laughing at us when we offered our first through what seems like twentieth options and recruiting well, leaving a pretty well built team for Gott (who I was was skeptical about at first but am really excited about now). As a coach Lowe was obviously in over his head and couldn't/wouldn't let the team play, constantly slowing them down and telling them an exact play to run. Just no flow, which I didn't like, and it obviously didn't work. Lowe also didn't have great player development and from Gotts comments didn't do the little things that make a difference. Few examples, he had all of our NCAA and ACC championship trophies basically sitting in the basement and didn't really have a players lounge/common area they could just hang out. Guys were also pretty out of shape.

Ive gotten labeled as some radical BzzIn guy by some people for being what I think is just realistic. Not a lot of talent on the team so expect WF to get trounced in games where they don't play well and then beat or put a scare in teams when they pay well. Think that's been pretty much what's happened. I think he knows what the team lacks and has gone out and recruited. He's bringing in size, rebounding, athleticism, and a PG the also happens to be a great scorer. Covers all the basics IMO. I don't think he will be a long term guy but will be a guy that will take the team back to being competitive talent wise in the ACC and will build the team up into a job that is looked at favorably by other coaches due to the talent on the roster. He's a bridge guy in my eyes and I think he's doing a good job at that.
 
I don't think he will be a long term guy but will be a guy that will take the team back to being competitive talent wise in the ACC and will build the team up into a job that is looked at favorably by other coaches due to the talent on the roster. He's a bridge guy in my eyes and I think he's doing a good job at that.

Hold on there, chief.

Bz took over a team that had just reached 2 consecutive NCAA Tournaments & in it's last game under Gaudio, (2010 NCAAT 2nd Round vs UK), it had 5 ESPN top-100 recruits on its roster.

With the incoming class he inherited, Bz had 7 ESPN top-100 recruits on his team to start the 2010 season vs. Stetson.

Flash forward a year and a half:

3-22 in conference play.
28 Double-Digit Losses
A handful of disciplinary problems
0 top 50-wins

His recruiting class for 2012 has 1 ESPN top-100 player (CMM, #80).

If he's a 'bridge guy', I'd like to know where in the hell that bridge is leading.
 
Hold on there, chief.

Bz took over a team that had just reached 2 consecutive NCAA Tournaments & in it's last game under Gaudio, (2010 NCAAT 2nd Round vs UK), it had 5 ESPN top-100 recruits on its roster.

With the incoming class he inherited, Bz had 7 ESPN top-100 recruits on his team to start the 2010 season vs. Stetson.

Flash forward a year and a half:

3-22 in conference play.
28 Double-Digit Losses
A handful of disciplinary problems
0 top 50-wins

His recruiting class for 2012 has 1 ESPN top-100 player (CMM, #80).

If he's a 'bridge guy', I'd like to know where in the hell that bridge is leading.

^^^ WELL SAID! ^^^
 
If you think recruiting is as black and white as being in the top 100 good for you, it makes things simple for you.

All fans would love to have every recruit in the top 25 and there is a correlation that the more top 100 kids you have the more successful your team will be, but that's a correlation not a certainty. You take a team of Ari Stewarts and Melvin Tabbs (4*s) and I'll take a team of CJ Harris and CJ Williams (NCSU 3*) and we will see who ends up with the better team. Dino recruited plenty of stars and top 100 players but if you look at it from a percentage perspective it looks like this. Dino recruited 5 top 100 guys in his 2recruiting classes. He "missed" on Ari, JTT, and Melvin. Carson needs to get it together or he'll be a miss as well. Travis was obviously a great recruit. In that timeframe he also had 2 3*s, CJ and Tony, both of which I would consider hits. So even the great Dino Gaudio got his best players from three stars. I don't anticipate that being the norm but if you don't recruit kids with a good head on there shoulders the top 100 players don't do you any good.
 
It's complete revisionism to think that the program need a bridge coach to conduct a long term rebuilding project.
 
I don't anticipate that being the norm but if you don't recruit kids with a good head on there shoulders the top 100 players don't do you any good.

So... Talent vs. system... and you're on the system side of the argument.

The contradiction is, you said [Redacted] is a 'bridge-guy'. To quote you: "(Bz) will build the team up into a job that is looked at favorably by other coaches due to the talent on the roster".

Do you see the flawed logic?

I want the best for these guys coming in and think they all have a ton of potential. I'm just hopeful that they fit into Bz's eventual successor's 'system'.
 
God, some Wake fans will rationalize anything to make themselves not think this was a complete abortion of a hire from Ron Wellman. He fucked the basketball program straight in the ass with no lube over the past 2 years.
 
If you think recruiting is as black and white as being in the top 100 good for you, it makes things simple for you.

All fans would love to have every recruit in the top 25 and there is a correlation that the more top 100 kids you have the more successful your team will be, but that's a correlation not a certainty. You take a team of Ari Stewarts and Melvin Tabbs (4*s) and I'll take a team of CJ Harris and CJ Williams (NCSU 3*) and we will see who ends up with the better team. Dino recruited plenty of stars and top 100 players but if you look at it from a percentage perspective it looks like this. Dino recruited 5 top 100 guys in his 2recruiting classes. He "missed" on Ari, JTT, and Melvin. Carson needs to get it together or he'll be a miss as well. Travis was obviously a great recruit. In that timeframe he also had 2 3*s, CJ and Tony, both of which I would consider hits. So even the great Dino Gaudio got his best players from three stars. I don't anticipate that being the norm but if you don't recruit kids with a good head on there shoulders the top 100 players don't do you any good.

You consider Tony a hit? I suppose if I was an NC State fan I would love seeing an incapable point guard starting for Wake too
 
It's complete revisionism to think that the program need a bridge coach to conduct a long term rebuilding project.

This is 100% correct.

Also... in my mind, Ron Wellman either:

(1) Actually fired Dino for for the reasons he said ("15-16" in February and March)

(2) took the high road & concocted an alternative reason (see (1)) to fire Dino as a favor to him to help protect his image.

Its really inconsequential which of those actually happened, because at the end of the day, you've got to hire a guy who is going to do better in that measure or you've failed. Wellman doubled-down with his personal accountability on the hire by getting a guy who had been significantly worse in that category than Dino.

According to Wellman, Dino got fired for finishing 1 game under .500 down the stretch in three seasons of play.

Barring tourney runs, If Bz doesn't win at least 5 of this season's last 8 games... it will be statistically impossible (before next season even starts) for his February-March record to outpace that very same measure of success in his first three seasons at Wake Forest.


If these are talented & high-character guys we've got coming in... RW needs to take the lead on figuring out how to keep them together and getting them to buy into our next coach's system; I have a feeling it won't be as hard as selling Bz's record of success that he's had to pitch to all of us for the past two years.
 
This is 100% correct.

Also... in my mind, Ron Wellman either:

(1) Actually fired Dino for for the reasons he said ("15-16" in February and March)

(2) took the high road & concocted an alternative reason (see (1)) to fire Dino as a favor to him to help protect his image.

Its really inconsequential which of those actually happened, because at the end of the day, you've got to hire a guy who is going to do better in that measure or you've failed. Wellman doubled-down with his personal accountability on the hire by getting a guy who had been significantly worse in that category than Dino.

According to Wellman, Dino got fired for finishing 1 game under .500 down the stretch in three seasons of play.

Barring tourney runs, If Bz doesn't win at least 5 of this season's last 8 games... it will be statistically impossible (before next season even starts) for his February-March record to outpace that very same measure of success in his first three seasons at Wake Forest.


If these are talented & high-character guys we've got coming in... RW needs to take the lead on figuring out how to keep them together and getting them to buy into our next coach's system; I have a feeling it won't be as hard as selling Bz's record of success that he's had to pitch to all of us for the past two years.

Very true. But there are some who say that it doesn't matter what Buzz's actual performance is. It doesn't matter what RW said about firing Dino, he's not going to hold Buzz to the same standard. In other words, his buddy get's a pass.

Where is Hatch? Where is the Board of Trustees? How can they look at the last two years of lies and pretend that the Wake "culture" coming from the AD's office is something to be proud of?
 
So... Talent vs. system... and you're on the system side of the argument.

The contradiction is, you said [Redacted] is a 'bridge-guy'. To quote you: "(Bz) will build the team up into a job that is looked at favorably by other coaches due to the talent on the roster".

Do you see the flawed logic?

I want the best for these guys coming in and think they all have a ton of potential. I'm just hopeful that they fit into Bz's eventual successor's 'system'.

Eh, I'm not really a system guy as 90% of the time talent is going to win out over a well coached group of scrubs, thats been proven. So I completely agree that getting the best talent possible is what should be done by any coach. That said i'd rather take a guy like CJ Harris who has some athletic limitations but is coachable and has the desire to work himself into a good player, over a guy like Melvin Tabb who obviously didn't work out.

I think you grossly overestimate how good a shape the WF program was in when Bzz was hired. I don't care who the coach was, a roster of the 5 freshmen in the 2010 class, CJ, Ari, TW (when eligible), and Gary Clark wasn't going to do anything. CJ and Ari were sophomores, neither of which could create their own shot at the time, Ty still wasn't ready, Gary Clark was a great shooter but couldn't get his own shot, and none of the freshman were thought to be instant program altering guys.

That roster is why I think WF had difficulties getting a coach they originally wanted, thus ending up with Bz. Other coaches had scouted the freshman and knew they couldn't carry the team from the get go, or that they were possibly overrated anyway and knew the core of the team had just graduated. No coach was winning anytime soon with that roster so it was difficult to get a coach to want to come into that scenario.

I know a lot of you guys don't agree with my take on it and that's fine. We will see how it turns out in about 2 years. Bzz is going to leave the program in better shape talent wise than when he was hired.

So no I don't see any flaw to my logic, but i'm don't think you agree with me, which is fine.
 
You consider Tony a hit? I suppose if I was an NC State fan I would love seeing an incapable point guard starting for Wake too

He's not a terrible player, but I do think CMM will be the starting PG pretty soon at WF, im extremely high on him. Tony has been asked to do a lot for WF early on, and as a guy that really missed his freshman season with the team I think he's progressing well. It's not like he's Fields or anything, he's a useful player, but would be a bench guy on a team like the WF team that we enjoyed watching with AFA, Teague and Johnson.
 
He's not a terrible player, but I do think CMM will be the starting PG pretty soon at WF, im extremely high on him. Tony has been asked to do a lot for WF early on, and as a guy that really missed his freshman season with the team I think he's progressing well. It's not like he's Fields or anything, he's a useful player, but would be a bench guy on a team like the WF team that we enjoyed watching with AFA, Teague and Johnson.

I, respectfully, disagree with your assessment. He shoots 24% for his career from behind the arc (14% last season), he shoots under 60% from the free throw line and to say he has limited court vision would be generous. I really hope CMM ends up being the starting point guard right away because this lackluster PG play is getting really old.
 
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