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ABC NEWS: New Polls Show Signs of Serious Vulnerability for Obama

Today's Pew Research poll has Obama with a 5 point lead over Romney 50-45.

But keep trying...
 
I think one of the things Obama has in his favor is he's already been defined- for better or worse people think they know who he is. I know some Republicans think Romney has had a tough time of it but wait till the Dems start trying to define him. What are the Republicans gonna do- bring up Reverend Wright or the birth certificate again?
 
RJ really? That's your constructive discussion of 3 legitimate polls that reflect historical precedent? That was a 3rd grade discussion point, so well, hmm...keep trying.

RJKarl said:
Today's Pew Research poll has Obama with a 5 point lead over Romney 50-45.

But keep trying...
Click to expand...
 
the abc poll internals mirror the nytimes/cbs poll that will be front page nyt tomorrow.

essentially, erosion among independents from 2008, making 2012 far more like 2004 than 2008.

it will be a very close election.
 
ncsportsnut1 said:
RJ really? That's your constructive discussion of 3 legitimate polls that reflect historical precedent? That was a 3rd grade discussion point, so well, hmm...keep trying.
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Historical precedent was that no black man had ever won the presidency.

Historical precedent was that since 1960 no man was elected directly from the Senate.

By the way, Nixon did win.

55% of tthe public put fairness a the #1 issue this year. It's even above jobs.

Could pick a worse candidate for fairness being an issue that Mitt the Ripper?

If Thune or a reasonable candidate were running you'd have a shot. Romney makes Kerry look rock solid in decisionmaking and like a supserstar candidate.
 
RJKarl said:
Historical precedent was that no black man had ever won the presidency.

Historical precedent was that since 1960 no man was elected directly from the Senate.

By the way, Nixon did win.

55% of tthe public put fairness a the #1 issue this year. It's even above jobs.

Could pick a worse candidate for fairness being an issue that Mitt the Ripper?

If Thune or a reasonable candidate were running you'd have a shot. Romney makes Kerry look rock solid in decisionmaking and like a supserstar candidate.
Click to expand...

which poll had this?
 
bobknightfan said:
I read somewhere that Obama had raised a couple of dollars for the upcoming campaign.
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they are spending the first $1M of airtime defending on Solyndra.

don't think messina and co. consider this a slam dunk.
 
TheShot said:
which poll had this?
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rj's referring to this from the link that was provided:
From ABC/Washington Post pollster Gary Langer: “Questions about Romney’s background at Bain Capital may show bigger teeth in a general election campaign. By 55-35 percent, more Americans express concern about the economic system favoring the wealthy than about overregulation fettering free enterprise, likely a sharp point of contention between Obama and whatever Republican he faces.
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Again, don't underestimate the stupidity of Americans. Mitt could take a shit on stage during a debate and still keep it close. It shouldn't be close, but it will be.
 
Shooshmoo said:
Again, don't underestimate the stupidity of Americans. Mitt could take a shit on stage during a debate and still keep it close. It shouldn't be close, but it will be.
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I'll bet you $10,000 he doesn't take a shit on the stage.
 
TheShot said:
the abc poll internals mirror the nytimes/cbs poll that will be front page nyt tomorrow.

essentially, erosion among independents from 2008, making 2012 far more like 2004 than 2008.

it will be a very close election.
Click to expand...

The independent erosion is a given. The big issue is how many of the 2008 first-and-only-time voters are going resurface in 2012 or whether they will just stay home. Is this woman coming back to the polls after she didn't get all of her stuff paid for?

 
Boy, you really love to mock that woman, don't you 2&2?

Anyone thinking that turnout is going to be low in 2012 is simply insane. Not with the dollars that will be in play. Neither side needs to worry about their base showing up either. Not with the poisonous political atmosphere we have currently. That woman may have been a hysterical voter in 2008, but she's still likely a voter in 2012, with a little prodding from the billion-dollar ground game Obama will employ. And she is not likely to vote for the GOP.

Voters have been trained by media and both parties to see these elections as war, with the winner walking all over the loser. The left will be plenty stoked to hate the right by November--most polls are showing the enthusiasm gap to have closed drastically from 2010 already, due to the House Pubs and their blundering, and Obama's recent resurgence as an effective, compromise-minded executive. Once Obama started spending all those dollars on his message, he's going to go up, not down.

These polls show the election should be close, and it likely will be, but with Obama (and the economy) trending upward rather than down, we're likely simply looking at a marker along the way to that 50% approval he needs to be very comfortable on election night.
 
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ArlingtonDeac said:
Boy, you really love to mock that woman, don't you 2&2?

Anyone thinking that turnout is going to be low in 2012 is simply insane. Not with the dollars that will be in play. Neither side needs to worry about there base showing up either, not with the poison political atmosphere we have currently. That woman may have been a hysterical voter in 2008, but she's still likely a voter in 2012, with a little braiding from the billion dollar ground game, and she is not likely to vote for the GOP.

Voters have been trained by media and both parties to see these elections as war, with the winner walking all over the loser. The left will be plenty stoked to hate the right by November--most polls are showing the enthusiasm gap to have closed drastically from 2010 already, due to the House Pubs and there blundering, and Obama's recent resurgence as an effective, compromise-minded executive.

These polls show the election will be close, and it likely will, but with Obama (and the economy) trending up rather than down, we're likely simply looking a marker along the way to that 50% approval he needs to be comfortable on election night.
Click to expand...

Team YesWeCan will bring out more of the Republican base than Romney will. They will likely bring the same crop of drones. The question is whether O can recapture enough of the middle. The answer will turn on whether enough of them fall for "Summer of Recovery, II."

I'd like for Newt to run, b/c I think this election is lost anyway. At least he'd advance the agenda by advocating ideas he sincerely believes in an articulate manner*. He's strong enough with the base to bring along voters who might be reluctant warriors for Romney, which might save the House.

* No offense, white people.
 
Obama is like the Portland Trailblazers. They are good solid team, but not good enough to win a chmapionship.

However each team they get to play in thep layoffs loses its best players.

At this point there is no Republican who running who is electable.

Somethines yo uare the best. Sometimes you win by playing terrible opponents.
 
jhmd2000 said:
Team YesWeCan will bring out more of the Republican base than Romney will. They will likely bring the same crop of drones. The question is whether O can recapture enough of the middle. The answer will turn on whether enough of them fall for "Summer of Recovery, II."

I'd like for Newt to run, b/c I think this election is lost anyway. At least he'd advance the agenda by advocating ideas he sincerely believes in an articulate manner*. He's strong enough with the base to bring along voters who might be reluctant warriors for Romney, which might save the House.

* No offense, white people.
Click to expand...

Wait, which side has the mindless drones? I can't remember.
 
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