Last year is instructive, but the teams aren't the same. The analysis isn't as easy as Clemson/State/WF.
State lost the best OL in college football (based on the NFL draft), two productive RBs (Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person), their leading receiver (Emeka Emezie), a stud LB Levi Jones, another OL Chandler Zavala, and their best punter since Johnny Evans (Trenton Gill). Understand that WF lost some solid players too (Tom, Roberson, Taylor, Masterson), but to me, State clearly lost more talent than WF. Understand that WF plays at State this year, and the home teams have generally controlled the series, but lately, WF has been more likely to win at State than vice versa. Also, Clemson returns a ton (and gets healthy) from perhaps college football's second best defense last year. If the Clemson's QB simply does not suck (that's a big "IF" because he was terrible), Clemson is the ACC heavy favorite this year. Don't see State's roster as significantly better in 2022, but maybe they have more depth than it appears. Feel like the floor for State's season is below WF.
Also, BC and FSU are improved. They had QB issues due to COVID and injuries, but if those issues are behind them, think both those teams are much better. Feel like Malik Cunningham has been at L'ville forever. When he is rolling, the Cardinals can put up points on everyone. Cuse is ALWAYS a tough out in the Dome. After Clemson, think the division is a dog fight, and believe WF has as good a chance as anyone to be the 2nd best team in the division, but wouldn't be surprised if any of 4 teams finished 2nd in the Atlantic.