BBall Recruiting Thread 2k16- SJM, Washington, Childress & Mitchell sign NLIs; 2017?

[DCDeac]

And there are plenty of examples of a team of 3-stars struggling mightily in high-major conferences. Comparing Manning with Bennett is silly.

Brogdon and Perrantes were 75-100 recruits if I remember correctly. Gill may have been, too.

Old recruiting page I looked at had Perrantes as a 3 star and Brogdon as a borderline 4 well outside the top 100. Still zero top 50's no matter where you look.

The comment was it was impossible to build a program that way. The truth is many are built in exactly that way - and far more fail to do so. Manning doesn't have to be a better coach than Bennett to have just a couple 3/4 star guys pan out to be excellent ACC players.

 

[FlaccidDeac]

You are conflating your reasonable expectations for the program as being reasonable expectations for our coach. I think Manning is currently in a bit over his head but I've seen enough to think he might be able to figure it out. Certainly not going to fault a guy for having the confidence to take an opportunity he probably wasn't ready or qualified for and attempting to make the most of it.

If you can't look past similarities in short term results (between redacted and Manning) to see huge differences in the process behind those results then I don't know what to tell you. After the last 4 years I'm certainly not going to fault someone for demanding rock-solid proof that Manning can be a successful coach here before believing that Manning can be a successful coach here, I just don't think it really adds much to the conversation.

I can fault him for not acknowledging that and bringing on a seasoned assistant.

 

[RChildress107]

Also, in reference to an earlier post, do you really think we can afford "missteps" from Manning at this point?

To a certain extent, yes.

As to your bolded questions, there has been plenty of evidence cited to support the conclusion that Manning has the potential to be a good coach. Just because you disagree with the conclusion, or don't think the evidence cited leads to that conclusion, doesn't mean its not there.

Evidence of recruiting ability:

1. The ability to identify talent relative to recruiting ranking as evidenced by the 2014 recruiting class
2. The ability to land ACC caliber recruits (Crawford and Moore)
3. The ability to be involved with high level recruits in both 2016 and beyond (which goes beyond simply being a result of being involved with Giles, IMO)
4. Playing in the NBA (game recognize game) and learning from Bill Self certainly don't hurt

Evidence of coaching ability:
1. positive (though not overwhelmingly so) results in his short time at Tulsa
2. again, playing in the NBA and learning from Bill Self certainly don't hurt.

 

[RChildress107]

I can fault him for not acknowledging that and bringing on a seasoned assistant.

That's fair

 

[PhDeac]

Old recruiting page I looked at had Perrantes as a 3 star and Brogdon as a borderline 4 well outside the top 100. Still zero top 50's no matter where you look.

The comment was it was impossible to build a program that way. The truth is many are built in exactly that way - and far more fail to do so. Manning doesn't have to be a better coach than Bennett to have just a couple 3/4 star guys pan out to be excellent ACC players.

Why are you ignoring Justin Anderson?

 

[YankeeInAtlanta]

Our 2015 Class was 73 (RSCI), 94(RSCI), and 229 (247 Composite)

So a class similar to the 2015 class would be 3-4 players in the 75-200 range. I think most were expecting better than that, which just seems unrealistic (or at least unlikely) to me.

The 2015 class is two players in the top 50 to 100 range and one sleeper. IIRC most has significant power 5 conference offers at this point last year,

The 2016 class has 3 sleepers without any significant power 5 conference offers.

People were expecting similar to last year meaning players in the top 50 to 100 range and possibly Harry Giles. If Harry Giles committed early, then I think most people expected that filling the remaining scholarships would be easier to fill with higher ranked caliber recruits with more players ranked closer to the top 50 than the top 100 or sleeper status.

 

[loyal2afault]

Similar to Clawson's comments about football recruiting, Wake Forest basketball will also always be about player development. Pragmatically, it is not a reasonable goal to go head-to-head with the Ratface's, Self's, and Used-Car-Salesman Calipari's of the worlds on a consistent basis and succeed in acquiring 3-4 top 50 talents year after year. That said, Manning is clearly willing to invest significant amounts of energy doing so, and I believe he will eventually succeed in getting a higher level of talent to come join his program. A decent winning record this year with some victories over top league programs would go a long way toward helping change the program's attractiveness to top high school players and further bury the stink of the (name redacted) years.

 

[DCDeac]

Why are you ignoring Justin Anderson?

Because he wasn't a top 50 recruit.

I'm not sure how old you are, but I assume you've been watching Wake and ACC basketball at least 20-30 years. How many players can you name who started out like Crab and Wilbekin who became All-ACC level performers? "Diamonds" show their potential early. Dinos has diamond potential. The others don't.

I mean, there's one mentioned on this page already.

Player A: 22 minutes, 7.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 36% floor, 32% deep
Player B: 22 minutes, 6.7 points, 2.8 rebounds, 39% floor, 32% deep

One of those players was first team all-acc as a junior. Neither were a top 100 recruit.

 

[RChildress107]

Part of what made the BuzzIn arguments so maddening was that they were based primarily on an utterly false premise: That [Redacted] inherited a trainwreck of a program that required a radical culture change and a rebuild from the ground up.

It also didn't help that [Redacted] had an unbelievable track record of losing.

I'm not overly concerned when I see similar arguments crop up in support of Manning because the premise behind those arguments is actually true this time, and there is no evidence that Manning is one of the worst coaches of all time (and some evidence that he might actually turn into a good coach)

 

[deacondamo]

If what KVegas posted comes to pass, that would be pretty amazing. In order for it to happen, Giles will attend Midnight Madness at Duke with all that hoopla (pun intended) and then commit to Wake. I'm still not expecting it to happen, but that would be pretty cool.

 

[PhDeac]

Because he wasn't a top 50 recruit.



I mean, there's one mentioned on this page already.

Player A: 22 minutes, 7.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 36% floor, 32% deep
Player B: 22 minutes, 6.7 points, 2.8 rebounds, 39% floor, 32% deep

One of those players was first team all-acc as a junior. Neither were a top 100 recruit.

But Anderson was Top 50. And you have one player out of hundreds. You wouldn't put money on Crab being an All-ACC performer. You'd consider it with Dinos.

I remember 2010-2011. They brought in Justin Anderson (#48 RSCI) in the 2012 class.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/recruit_rankings_2012.html

 

[Turd Ferguson]

To a certain extent, yes.

As to your bolded questions, there has been plenty of evidence cited to support the conclusion that Manning has the potential to be a good coach. Just because you disagree with the conclusion, or don't think the evidence cited leads to that conclusion, doesn't mean its not there.

Evidence of recruiting ability:

1. The ability to identify talent relative to recruiting ranking as evidenced by the 2014 recruiting class
2. The ability to land ACC caliber recruits (Crawford and Moore)
3. The ability to be involved with high level recruits in both 2016 and beyond (which goes beyond simply being a result of being involved with Giles, IMO)
4. Playing in the NBA (game recognize game) and learning from Bill Self certainly don't hurt

Evidence of coaching ability:
1. positive (though not overwhelmingly so) results in his short time at Tulsa
2. again, playing in the NBA and learning from Bill Self certainly don't hurt.

The only thing that addresses recruiting ability is recruiting Crawford and Moore which you say we shouldn't expect regularly. So is it an example of Manning's recruiting ability if it is not sustainable? I do agree with you that the 2015 class was a positive, I just think it is a reasonable expectation to repeat that success. None of the other things you mentioned are meaningful examples of recruiting success.

He did well at Tulsa, so that's fairly positive, but limited in what it says about success in the ACC. Playing in the NBA and knowing Self are not examples of good college coaching.

 

[DCDeac]

But Anderson was Top 50. And you have one player out of hundreds. You wouldn't put money on Crab being an All-ACC performer. You'd consider it with Dinos.

Eh, I just looked at two rankings, they both had him outside the top 50. In fact they had Moto as the next ranked SF behind him. Plus, #48 - 3 whole spots from being outside the top 50, across the entire 3 years that UVA became an ACC powerhouse... Not sure you are doing your argument any favors.

Anyway, this is getting old. Nobody is arguing Crab will be all ACC. You made a statement, it was incredibly easy to disprove using a random player already mentioned on the same thread page.

Look, the point is shit like "surrounding Giles with 3 stars" is nonsense. Ignoring Manning's recruiting wins last year is unfair. Acting like it's impossible for any of our 3 stars to pan out is incredibly pessimistic, just as assuming any of them are going to be all-acc first team is overly optimistic.

But the general idea that teams can't get better by recruiting the right guys for their system - even if they're outside of the top 50 - is ridiculous. It's harder? Less likely? Of course. But people are throwing around all these absolutes when there's a good chance not one player who would start with Giles has even played their first minute of basketball at Wake. Seriously [Redacted] should chip in for some depression meds for some of you...

 

[deaconson]

The only thing that addresses recruiting ability is recruiting Crawford and Moore which you say we shouldn't expect regularly. So is it an example of Manning's recruiting ability if it is not sustainable? I do agree with you that the 2015 class was a positive, I just think it is a reasonable expectation to repeat that success. None of the other things you mentioned are meaningful examples of recruiting success.

He did well at Tulsa, so that's fairly positive, but limited in what it says about success in the ACC. Playing in the NBA and knowing Self are not examples of good college coaching.

to be fair he just said it was evidence that manning has potential to be a good coach not that he was now and not that playing in the nba and know self were examples of good college coaching just that they likely taught him a lot that he may be able to use.

while the jury is still out on manning they came back after deliberating and are unanimously #WellmanOut.

 

[ManhassetDeac]

If what KVegas posted comes to pass, that would be pretty amazing. In order for it to happen, Giles will attend Midnight Madness at Duke with all that hoopla (pun intended) and then commit to Wake. I'm still not expecting it to happen, but that would be pretty cool.

My fear is that it plays out something like this:

Manning: Harry, we want and need you. What do you say?
Giles: Coach, I'm leaning your way and have pretty much decided. But I've given my word to the other schools that I'd hear them out so I'm going to take all my officials
Manning: Okay, Harry. But we want to build around you so let us know as soon as possible

[following visits]

Manning: What do you say Harry?
Giles: Listen coach, I love Wake Forest but i'm only going to be around for one year and I think with what Duke has already committed they give me a better chance to win
Manning: Well that's why we were pushing for a commitment from you earlier
Giles: I know coach. Sorry

Putting a bunch of 3* star guys around Giles for one year really hurts our chances. I hope i'm wrong, but it's hard to see him go our way.

 

[PhDeac]

Eh, I just looked at two rankings, they both had him outside the top 50. In fact they had Moto as the next ranked SF behind him. Plus, #48 - 3 whole spots from being outside the top 50, across the entire 3 years that UVA became an ACC powerhouse... Not sure you are doing your argument any favors.

Anyway, this is getting old. Nobody is arguing Crab will be all ACC. You made a statement, it was incredibly easy to disprove using a random player already mentioned on the same thread page.

Look, the point is shit like "surrounding Giles with 3 stars" is nonsense. Ignoring Manning's recruiting wins last year is unfair. Acting like it's impossible for any of our 3 stars to pan out is incredibly pessimistic, just as assuming any of them are going to be all-acc first team is overly optimistic.

But the general idea that teams can't get better by recruiting the right guys for their system - even if they're outside of the top 50 - is ridiculous. It's harder? Less likely? Of course. But people are throwing around all these absolutes when there's a good chance not one player who would start with Giles has even played their first minute of basketball at Wake. Seriously [Redacted] should chip in for some depression meds for some of you...

"Absolutes" like saying one player disproves the idea that higher ranked players are more likely to rebuild a program.

And we aren't just talking about players outside the Top 50. This is players outside the Top 150.

 

[deaclite]

Tulsa won 23 games last year under Frank Haith and is expected to have another good season. So, it appears Manning left them in good shape. Not sure why we are so eager to fill our open slots so quickly this fall. We should have a competitive squad so let's overachieve and get some street cred. Plenty of grads out there we can attract and then swing for the fences in 2017.

 

[deaconson]

Eh, I just looked at two rankings, they both had him outside the top 50. In fact they had Moto as the next ranked SF behind him. Plus, #48 - 3 whole spots from being outside the top 50, across the entire 3 years that UVA became an ACC powerhouse... Not sure you are doing your argument any favors.

Anyway, this is getting old. Nobody is arguing Crab will be all ACC. You made a statement, it was incredibly easy to disprove using a random player already mentioned on the same thread page.

Look, the point is shit like "surrounding Giles with 3 stars" is nonsense. it's not because it's currently happening if he commits. Ignoring Manning's recruiting wins last year is unfair. no one is. based on last year most expected more this year. Acting like it's impossible for any of our 3 stars to pan out is incredibly pessimistic yes it is, but no one said none would pan out just the likely hood is only a few will, just as assuming any of them are going to be all-acc first team is overly optimistic.

agreed

But the general idea that teams can't get better by recruiting the right guys for their system - even if they're outside of the top 50 - is ridiculous

i guess i missed these statements.

. It's harder? Less likely? Of course. But people are throwing around all these absolutes not more than one or two people are throwing absolutes around.when there's a good chance not one player who would start with Giles has even played their first minute of basketball at Wake. Seriously [Redacted] should chip in for some depression meds for some of you...

wellman and [Redacted] really ruined us as a fan base. things are looking up but it's still a long dark climb out of this hole. i can understand the pessimism and could probably use some meds to help even me out. getting giles would energize this fan base and take away a lot of the lingering pessimism. maybe that would get me back to ground floor and get me excited to watch the games this year. it was tough trying to be invested last year.

i still can't quit this thread.

 

[DCDeac]

"Absolutes" like saying one player disproves the idea that higher ranked players are more likely to rebuild a program.

And we aren't just talking about players outside the Top 50. This is players outside the Top 150.

Eh, now you've lost me. I never came close to saying higher ranked players aren't more likely to rebuild a program. In fact I explicitly said the opposite.

And Manning has multiple recruits inside the top 150. Again, add Giles and we could start 5 players without using one of our sub 150 recruits. I feel like you're arguing with someone else here... My very first statement was that if we miss on Giles this class was a disappointment. That doesn't mean we have to start acting like the 2015 class is poor and Manning's goal is to grab 3 stars and worse and hope they pan out.

 

[Deaconblue]

Dinos was originally projected as a "two and gone back to Greece" guy because that was his projected talent level- lower level Euro league. Now it looks like he may stay a little longer because the upside is looking like possible NBA player.