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Belmont Stakes Saturday

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RJKarl

RJKarl

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This is very strange. First of all, this is normally the third race of the Triple Crown. It's usually run over 1 1/2 miles and would be the longest distance any of the horses would run. Saturday it will be contested at only 1 1/8 miles. That's the distance of a prep race and is shorter than any other Triple Crown race.

This is a terrible field. Only one of the top Triple Crown horses is entered. Tiz the Law is listed as the 6/5 favorite. I would be shocked if he goes off at over 2/5 (You get back $2.80 for your $2 bet). He might even go off at 1/9.

The only way to bet this race is to lock it into a Pick 4 or Pick 5. Even if you bet two cold exactas, unless one is a long shot, you'll barely make even money.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/hor...ositions-draw-odds/1e7s6xvi306nx1g97xbbot383q
 
RJKarl said:
This is very strange. First of all, this is normally the third race of the Triple Crown. It's usually run over 1 1/2 miles and would be the longest distance any of the horses would run. Saturday it will be contested at only 1 1/8 miles. That's the distance of a prep race and is shorter than any other Triple Crown race.

This is a terrible field. Only one of the top Triple Crown horses is entered. Tiz the Law is listed as the 6/5 favorite. I would be shocked if he goes off at over 2/5 (You get back $2.80 for your $2 bet). He might even go off at 1/9.

The only way to bet this race is to lock it into a Pick 4 or Pick 5. Even if you bet two cold exactas, unless one is a long shot, you'll barely make even money.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/hor...ositions-draw-odds/1e7s6xvi306nx1g97xbbot383q
Click to expand...

RJ, you know this stuff; why is the field so diluted for this one? To me, a legit 3/C contender sitting this one out is the equivalent of Tiger skipping one of the majors b/c he doesn't like the course. I'm going to guess your answer may be that the whole point of picking which races to run in is to maximize stud $$ as opposed to winning purses/establishing legacy, but again just my guess based on my limited info on how stakes racing works at he highest level..
 
DownEastDeac said:
RJ, you know this stuff; why is the field so diluted for this one? To me, a legit 3/C contender sitting this one out is the equivalent of Tiger skipping one of the majors b/c he doesn't like the course. I'm going to guess your answer may be that the whole point of picking which races to run in is to maximize stud $$ as opposed to winning purses/establishing legacy, but again just my guess based on my limited info on how stakes racing works at he highest level..
Click to expand...

His two top contenders got injured. But there are still some decent horses that chose not to be transported to NY.

The usual Derby prep races were also moved. This put some horses out of the Belmont. A good example is the Santa Anita Derby. This is usually a major Derby prep and has produced a number of winners.. It was run on June 6. Virtually no top horses will run back after twelve days. This is especially true about three year olds.

The Belmont also changed it's distance to a much shorter race. There are often very different horses in the Belmont than the Derby or Preakness. The horse that won the Santa Anita Derby, Honor A.P., would have loved the 1 1/2 mile distance the race is historically run.

As to stud fees, the Derby counts a lot more than the Belmont as does the Breeders Cup. The Derby is timed almost perfectly for the Breeders Cup. Plus, the BX is at Keeneland this year. So, the top horses from the Derby will stay in KY.

With the condensed Triple Crown, horses could be running four majors races in much shorter time frame. This could hurt horses in the long run.

For Saturday, you could bet 4 horses each of the other Pick 4 races and single Tiz the Law for $32 and hope for a price or two in the other races.
 
Will there be a crowd in the stands watching and cheering?
Or will this be like the PGA events with no fans?
Would be very strange to watch a horse race with no noise.
 
Dekin said:
Will there be a crowd in the stands watching and cheering?
Or will this be like the PGA events with no fans?
Would be very strange to watch a horse race with no noise.
Click to expand...

There won't be any fans. Given that we haven't seen a lot of these horses, and that they have each run in empty venues, we won't know if it helps or hurts some of them.

Due to online betting, the handle will be fairly big.
 
Looking at the card, the late Pick 4 may actually pay as much as the Pick 5. The reason is Baffert's horse in the eighth race will go off at under even money. It's possible that horse will go off at 1/2. Most people will be singling him. The only way you should bet the Pick 5 is if you bet against him.

This reminds me of the Belmont when Big Brown was going for the Triple Crown. The Pick 3 coming into the Belmont paid about $40 more than the Pick 4 would have paid had Big Brown won.
 
She looked like the best 3 yo of either sex. I can't believe the exacta paid that much in a short field.
 
4/5 was a gift. None of the other horses should have been in the race.

I'm pissed at myself for not seeing there was a Pick 4 that ended with the Belmont. It was too easy and paid $202 for a $0.50 bet. With two singles, it would have been hittable for under $10. Fuck me.
 
This is going to be tough to do. Are they going to let all of the massive ownership group of Tiz the Law and their families attend? How about the undercard?

The fancy boxes have too many people in them to distance.

The undercard usually has Grade 1 turf races that bring in horses from overseas. Will that happen? Will the owners and trainers be able to get home after being in the US?

I'm not sure if this is worth the innumerable headaches that it will cause.
 
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