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Bernie Sanders is the Frontrunner

Wakeforest22890 said:
If it's Bernie and Donald, there will be at least one independent bid that will make the race difficult to forecast.

Nate Silver already stating now that he believes there's at least a 1/3 chance that the Dems have a brokered convention.
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Maybe Silver is right, but all of recent political history is against it. We haven't had a brokered convention since the 1950s, and since the start of the modern presidential primary system in 1972 we haven't had a political convention take more than one ballot to choose the nominee. I know there's a lot of Democratic candidates out there, but the same was true with the GOP primaries in 2016, and Trump pulled away to win the nomination fairly easily. My guess is that the great majority of the Dem candidates will be gone after just a few primaries, and one candidate will eventually break through to win the nomination, as Obama did against Hillary in 2008. Of course we are living in strange times, so I guess anything is possible.
 
Wrangor said:
I do think Sanders wins the nomination and I also think he will get Trump re-elected. It’s pretty crazy that the odds are that American voters will have to decide between real socialism (not fake Obama socialism) and Trump In 2020. We have regressed a lot since Bush vs. Clinton or McCain vs. Obama. Yeesh.
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So its regression to move away from presidents, who regardless of their party, only cared about the interests of the rich?
 
Obama and Hillary is different because it was a two horse race (plus super delegates played a larger role). The GOP relies more heavily on winner take all rather than strictly proportional delegate awards (as Dems do).

These differences make this a more likely scenario for a brokered convention in 2020 than the other situations. Agree that it’s still less likely to occur than not occur.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
If it's Bernie and Donald, there will be at least one independent bid that will make the race difficult to forecast.

Nate Silver already stating now that he believes there's at least a 1/3 chance that the Dems have a brokered convention.
Click to expand...

If Democrats broker the convention and ice Bernie out of the nomination, Donald wins in a landslide. Blues are in a tough spot. Best thing they could do to beat Donald is to narrow the field to take away Bernie's lane, but that is bad optics. Bernie will end up walking through a weak field with his 30-35% strength, and Democrats will be forced to make a choice between all out socialism and possibly the most repulsive Republican of all time.
 
BillBrasky said:
So its regression to move away from presidents, who regardless of their party, only cared about the interests of the rich?
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If nothing else, this board does a great job of reshaping comments to create a false narrative. Great work Brasky. You nailed it. :werd:
 
Wrangor said:
If Democrats broker the convention and ice Bernie out of the nomination, Donald wins in a landslide. Blues are in a tough spot. Best thing they could do to beat Donald is to narrow the field to take away Bernie's lane, but that is bad optics. Bernie will end up walking through a weak field with his 30-35% strength, and Democrats will be forced to make a choice between all out socialism and possibly the most repulsive Republican of all time.
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If Bernie = "all out socialism" that would be fucking rad, but he's not even really a socialist.
 
The formula to beating Trump it to not be crazy. The Democrats can't seem to figure that out.
 
Wrangor said:
If nothing else, this board does a great job of reshaping comments to create a false narrative. Great work Brasky. You nailed it. :werd:
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I mean, you're falsely calling Bernie an all out socialist, so...
 
Trump may well win a second term next year, but he's not going to win in a landslide. Despite his claims, he barely squeaked into office last time (losing the national popular vote by a record 3 million, and barely winning PA, MI, and WI to eke out an Electoral Vote win, and he won Florida by just 1.3%). He's done nothing in the past two-plus years to expand his base, and in fact has gone out of his way to alienate everyone who didn't for him. I don't think any Hillary voters would vote for Trump, no matter who the Democratic nominee is, and I don't see them staying home either, not with Trump at the top of the GOP ticket. If Democrats underestimated the hatred for Hillary in 2016 - and they did - I think the GOP is similarly underestimating just how much hatred - real loathing - there is for Trump among vast numbers of people. There's a reason why Democrats won the national popular vote in House races by over nine percent last year. Trump may well win, but it will almost certainly be by a narrow margin, as in 2016, and may well come with another national popular vote loss. IMO, GOP dreams of a Trump landslide are about as realistic as Democratic dreams of a Hillary landslide turned out to be in 2016.
 
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I don’t see Donald or Bernie having any higher a percentage of the electorate as the other in a two man race. People hate sexist racist idiots and they hate alleged socialists. Why would either have the upper hand? Both have great name recognition.
 
Bernie needs to decide whether he's a true socialist or just a bigger welfare stater. Come on man, make up your mind. After all, you have had seventy some years to figure it out.
 
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