If they just got rid of the estate tax thing, I wonder how those charts would look. I imagine they'd look fairly good.
In the sense that there would be less money going to the very rich, sure. But wouldn't change many in the lower/middle class actually getting a tax hike. 38 million filers making between $20k and $40k would get a tax increase.
It's shaping up like the ACA repeal, where the goal is no longer meaningful reform and is down to pass something, anything no matter how flawed, under a ridiculous timeline just to get something on the scoreboard. So I bet this won't pass.
That ignores the reality that super huge estates are mostly unrealized capital gains while more modest estates are generally a much smaller % unrealized capital gains.
We estimate that the average unrealized capital gains in estates monotonically increases with the size of the estate, ranging from 13% for estates under $2 million to 55% for estates over $100 million from the federal reserve. https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2013/201328/201328pap.pdf
Lower level estates are comprised of a much larger % principal residences which would qualify for an exemption if sold.
And the estate exemption amount is available to all estates.
So having an exemption amount is an equitable tax policy decision. Now you can argue over what amount that should be. But the idea of eliminating the estate tax reduces class warfare in tax policy is laughable.
How is an exemption an equitable policy decision if the entire point is to exempt some people but tax others? If the exemption were based on a percentage (i.e. 60% of everyone's estate is tax-free but 40% is taxable), then yes it would be equitable. But setting the exemption as a dollar amount designed to be above most people's estates is pretty much the opposite of equitable.