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Bracketology 2017

I love fired up RJ. Aside from Kentucky and Florida, the SEC is trash in my opinion. Kentucky is a very good squad whom I'd compare with UNC or Louisville. Florida is pretty similar to FSU or ND in my opinion. After that, South Carolina , Arkansas and Vandy are not better than Duke, UVA, or Miami. I'd put those 2 teams more in the Va Tech, Wake Forest, Syracuse range. And personally, I think those 3 ACC teams are better than the 3rd and 4th best SEC teams.
 
What's Lunardi's success rate over the last few years? I can't imagine it's very high if he's this far off consistently.
 
Also from the ACC website:

BIG PICTURE

Virginia Tech: With home wins over Duke, Virginia and Miami, the Hokies appear to have a resume worthy of their first NCAA Tournament berth since 2007 under coach Seth Greenberg. They have won six of eight overall. The 15 rebounds matched a career high for LeDay.

Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons have already taken a major leap this season during an encouraging turnaround under third-year coach Danny Manning. They began the day with an RPI of 34 and are thought to be on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. But they have not won consecutive games in the ACC Tournament since 2006 and are still looking for their first trip to the quarterfinals since 2009. They need one win for their first 20-win season since 2009-10, the last time they made the NCAAs.
 
CantStandYa said:
What's Lunardi's success rate over the last few years? I can't imagine it's very high if he's this far off consistently.
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I haven't cared enough to track him recently, but for his first several years, he made many changes the final morning, suggesting that he either changed his mind or (more likely) had some inside connections to the Committee.
 
wake20 said:
"Two wins over the Blue Demons have given the Musketeers some cushion as they face Butler in the next round."

Must be nice to feel safe because you beat RPI 228 twice in the last week.
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I don't understand why two consecutive terrible wins gives them cushion, but our wins over VT and BC kept us on the bubble. It's crazy to me how the narrative has changed in the last two weeks. Before it seemed like all we needed was a top 25 win, then we got that and a road-top-50 win, but basically nothing changed except us moving ahead of 3-4 other teams. I really hope the committee is objective and analytical. I wonder how much they are swayed by the media.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
CantStandYa said:
What's Lunardi's success rate over the last few years? I can't imagine it's very high if he's this far off consistently.
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Lunardi has a great success rate--probably gets 67 of 68 teams on average.


2012--Teams in Tournament--67 of 68 (Missed out only on Seton Hall)

Joe Lunardi was a perfect 68 for 68 this year--2013 By Matt Yoder on 03/18/2013

PAST CHAMPIONS

2016 - Delphi Bracketology

2015 - Bracketville

2014 - Big Underdog/M+J's Bracket Watch
2013 - Jabesblog
2012 - Lobofan2003's Bracketology
2011 - FOX Sports (Jordan Schwartz)
2010 - Bracketville/Bracket Madness/Washington Post (Eric Prisbell)
2009 - Bracketography
2008 - March Madness All Season (Jeff Borzello)
2007 - The Bracket Project
2006 - Bracket Racket/Bracketology 101

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)
•Illinois State vs. Wake Forest | South Region
•Kansas State vs. Xavier | Midwest Region
•SOUTH DAKOTA ST vs. New Orleans | Midwest Region
•MOUNT ST. MARY’S vs. NC Central | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …


MIDWEST – Kansas City EAST – New York
Tulsa Buffalo
1) Kansas 1) Villanova
16) SO DAKOTA ST / New Orleans 16) MT ST. MARY’S / NC Central
8) Michigan 8) Miami
9) Arkansas 9) Northwestern

Milwaukee Orlando
5) Notre Dame 5) West Virginia
12) UT-Arlington 12) UNC-WILMINGTON
4) Butler 4) Florida
13) Princeton 13) Vermont

Greenville Salt Lake City
6) Wisconsin 6) Iowa State
11) Kansas State / Xavier 11) Vanderbilt
3) Duke 3) Arizona
14) Akron 14) IONA

Sacramento Indianapolis
7) Saint Mary’s 7) Creighton
10) WICHITA STATE 10) VCU
2) UCLA 2) Louisville
15) UC-Irvine 15) NORTHERN KENTUCKY

WEST – San Jose SOUTH – Memphis
Salt Lake City Greenville
1) GONZAGA 1) North Carolina
16) North Dakota 16) JACKSONVILLE STATE
8) South Carolina 8) Dayton
9) Michigan State 9) Marquette

Buffalo Milwaukee
5) Minnesota 5) Cincinnati
12) Nevada 12) Wake Forest / Illinois State
4) Virginia 4) Purdue
13) BUCKNELL 13) EAST TENNESSEE ST

Orlando Tulsa
6) SMU 6) Maryland
11) Mid Tennessee State 11) USC
3) Florida State 3) Baylor
14) WINTHROP 14) FLA GULF COAST

Sacramento Indianapolis
7) Oklahoma State 7) Virginia Tech
10) Seton Hall 10) Providence
2) Oregon 2) Kentucky
15) CSU-Bakersfield 15) Texas-Southern

NOTES on the BRACKET: Kansas is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Villanova, North Carolina, and Gonzaga.

Last Four Byes (at large): Providence, Seton Hall, USC, Vanderbilt

Last Four IN (at large): Xavier, Wake Forest, Kansas State, Illinois State

First Four OUT (at large): Syracuse, Rhode Island, Iowa, Illinois

Next four teams OUT (at large): California, Houston, Georgia, Ole Miss

Breakdown by Conference …

ACC (9): NORTH CAROLINA, Louisville, Duke, Florida State, Virginia, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Miami-FL, Wake Forest

Big 10 (7): PURDUE, Minnesota, Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State

Big East (7): VILLANOVA, Butler, Creighton, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Xavier

Big 12 (6): KANSAS, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

SEC (5): FLORIDA, Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas, Vanderbilt

Pac 12 (4): OREGON, Arizona, UCLA, USC

Atlantic 10 (2): DAYTON, VCU

American (2): SMU, Cincinnati

West Coast (2): GONZAGA, Saint Mary’s

Missouri Valley (2): WICHITA STATE, Illinois State

Mountain West (1): NEVADA

ONE BID LEAGUES: IONA (MAAC), Middle Tennessee State (C-USA), UT-Arlington (SBELT), Princeton (IVY), North Dakota (BSKY), NORTHERN KENTUCKY (HORIZON), New Orleans (SLND), EAST TENNESSEE STATE (STHN), UC-Irvine (BWEST), Akron (MAC), FLORIDA GULF COAST (ASUN), JACKSONVILLE STATE (OVC), UNC-WILMINGTON (CAA), WINTHROP (BSO), NC-Central (MEAC), SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUM), CSU-Bakersfield (WAC), Vermont (AEAST), BUCKNELL (PAT), MOUNT ST. MARY’S (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)
 
My gut is we sneak in but as one of the #11 seeds in the play-in game. Hope I'm wrong and that we snag a non-play-in #11 or even a #10.

Despite all that, I just can't get over this snagging fear that we get left out altogether. If any high-major program could get snubbed with a resume like ours that--based on any reasoned, objective basis--should clearly be sufficient, it's Wake Forest.
 
If Wake (31 in KP) plays Illinois State (49) in the Play-In game, we will be the second hardest team they have faced all year (fourth hardest game, 3x against Wichita State).

Illinois State would be our 17th toughest game, or 16th easiest game.
 
buckets said:
We're gonna get the play in game and lose
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buckets said:
It's the wake Forest way

Take a good tournament outcome and subtract two wins
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giphy.gif
 
I can't stress enough how, instead of paying attention to one guy, to use Bracket Matrix. Wisdom of the Crowds is almost always a better resource than just one person.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
If Wake (31 in KP) plays Illinois State (49) in the Play-In game, we will be the second hardest team they have faced all year (fourth hardest game, 3x against Wichita State).

Illinois State would be our 17th toughest game, or 16th easiest game.
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Illinois State is not making the tournament, IMO. Wouldn't spend too much time reflecting on them
 
I really want to win a game and then NOT play Kentucky in the 2nd round. Can we make that happen? Thanks.
 
wsc8521s said:
Illinois State is not making the tournament, IMO. Wouldn't spend too much time reflecting on them
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They are the first team out currently in the Bracket Matrix with a lot of stuff to still happen. I tend to agree with you on this one.

Just comparing Wake to who bracketologists think are our "peers" at this juncture.
 
Say Hey Deac said:
I really want to win a game and then NOT play Kentucky in the 2nd round. Can we make that happen? Thanks.
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If Wake had won last night, Wake would have been given the nine seed with Kansas as the one. The committee would have loved Danny Manning's team going against his alma mater and his coaching mentor.

With Wake losing last night, Wake will be lower seeded, but still look for Wake in whatever region Kansas is in.
 
Saw in Lunard's lunacy bracket last night he had Wake as a play-in 12 that would have to go through a beatable # 5 seed (can't remember now who) and then a 2nd round match up with Duke at # 4.

I would love a 3rd shot at those donks, but does that ever really happen, such an early match up from the same conference?

Of course with potentially 10 ACC teams, might be hard to spread them out sufficiently with the pod system and all.
 
I don't believe we can play Duke that early by rule. Since we played them twice pretty sure the earliest we could play is the Sweet 16.

Maybe someone has pointed this out to Joe already, although he probably just ignored it.

From the guidelines: http://www.ncaa.com/content/di-principles-and-procedures-selection

Teams from the same conference shall not
meet prior to the regional semifinals if they
played each other twice during the regular
season and conference tournament.
 
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