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Bracketology 2017

wsc8521s said:
USC with an almighty choke in the desert. 10 point lead w/ 4:00 left, vamoosh!

Pac-12 has three very good teams, but the rest is just trash
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Trash coached by a guy with a photogenic wife is less offensive trash to the t.v. people. Not crazy.
 
TheIshThatSaved WakeForest said:
They lost to KenPom 157, 120 and 208 (UTEP, who Wake crushed)

Hopefully they just win their tourney like they should
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MTSU will get in regardless as they are 25-4 and have FIU & FAU left in the regular season, both with losing records so put them at 27-4. LaTech is 21-9 & Rice is 20-9. They are the only 2 with any remote chance in this league but LT has only 1 game left & Rice the normal 2 before the tourney. Put them both down for NIT w/o winning their tourney.
 
2nd team out in Lunardi's update today: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Seems like if we beat Loui (especially) or VT that should be enough to vault us in to his bracket at least.

Interestingly our RPI fell down to 45 this weekend without playing, but again a win over either of those should fix that pretty quickly
 
wsc8521s said:
2nd team out in Lunardi's update today: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Seems like if we beat Loui (especially) or VT that should be enough to vault us in to his bracket at least.

Interestingly our RPI fell down to 45 this weekend without playing, but again a win over either of those should fix that pretty quickly
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Vandy is likely to lose their last two games and be 16-15. If we go 1-1, we'd be ahead of them.
 
wsc8521s said:
2nd team out in Lunardi's update today: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Seems like if we beat Loui (especially) or VT that should be enough to vault us in to his bracket at least.

Interestingly our RPI fell down to 45 this weekend without playing, but again a win over either of those should fix that pretty quickly
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Think the WF RPI dropped because some of the non-conf opponents that helped pump up WF's RPI have stumbled lately (Northwestern lost both games this past week, Xavier has fallen apart having lost 5 straight, and of course, LSU has now lost 14 straight, they haven't won since January 4 in the mediocre SEC -- not helpful).
 
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RJKarl said:
Vandy is likely to lose their last two games and be 16-15. If we go 1-1, we'd be ahead of them.
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Besides our games, I'd say their game vs. Florida on Saturday is shaping up as the most bubblicious game of the week.

Honorable mention to Cal's roadies @ Utah and Colorado, as well.

Pilchard said:
Think the WF RPI dropped because some of the non-conf opponents that helped pump up WF's RPI have stumbled lately (Northwestern lost both games this past week, Xavier has fallen apart having lost 5 straight, and of course, LSU have lost 14 straight, they haven't won since January 4 in the mediocre SEC hurts).
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Good points, though thankfully our non-conference SOS is holding strong at 17th.

I'd add mid-major RPIs do seem to rise as the season progresses and as major conference teams and the teams they've played in-conference take on more losses
 
TheReff said:
MTSU will get in regardless as they are 25-4 and have FIU & FAU left in the regular season, both with losing records so put them at 27-4. LaTech is 21-9 & Rice is 20-9. They are the only 2 with any remote chance in this league but LT has only 1 game left & Rice the normal 2 before the tourney. Put them both down for NIT w/o winning their tourney.
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MTSU is right on the bubble if they don't win CUSA and a failure to win the conference tournament would give them a bad loss to a team outside the top 100 unless they lose to Louisiana Tech.

In other words any loss MTSU suffers the rest of the season is 50 spots worse than any loss Wake has period.
 
So it doesn't matter for us whether MTSU wins their conference or not. They'll go to the NIT if they lose.
 
PhDeac said:
So it doesn't matter for us whether MTSU wins their conference or not. They'll go to the NIT if they lose.
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They are on the bubble and it adds one more team that we have to compete with. We want them to win the CUSA.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
They are on the bubble and it adds one more team that we have to compete with. We want them to win the CUSA.
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Yeah, this. There's no reason to deal in absolutes when predicting what the committee will with a group of ten bubble teams. The only constant is that you're better off being one of nine legitimate bubble teams instead of one of ten.
 
USC is the one I don't really get. 68th in KP, lost 4 straight, are 21-8, but have played a ridiculously easy schedule.
 
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The only things I can point to that Cal has over us is that their RPI Top 50 win was on the road as opposed to home (meh), and pure won-loss record and conference won-loss record.

The latter two are particularly dumb reasons, especially when the bottom of the Pac-12 is soooooo horrendous
 
19-9 (10-6) against the 234th OOC SOS in the Pac-12 is just not that good.

They have no wins in the top 50, have lost 3/4, and finish on the road against Utah and Colorado. There is a good chance that both Cal and Vandy will play themselves out this week.
 
Cal's OOC SOS is regarded pretty highly (58th) in the non-Kenpom numbers the committee uses. Of course, ours is better.

And USC is an RPI Top 50 win, if not a Kenpom one
 
Bubble Teams Remaining Schedules

Xavier - Marquette, @Depaul
Northwestern - Michigan, Purdue
Middle Tenn St - FIU, FAU
Illinois St - (None)
Virginia Tech - Miami, WFU
Syracuse - GT
USC - Wash St, Washington
California - @Utah, @Colorado
Seton Hall - Gtown, @Butler
Providence - Depaul, @St Johns
Marquette - @Xavier, Creighton
Vanderbilt - @Kentucky, Florida

(Lunardi's Cut Line)

Georgia Tech - Pitt, @Syracuse
Wake Forest - Louisville, @VT
Rhode Island - @St Joes, Davidson
Georgia - Auburn, @Arkansas
Tennessee - @LSU, Alabama
TCU - Kansas St, @Oklahoma
Kansas State - @TCU, Texas Tech
Houston - @Cincy, ECU
 
Just beat Louisville. After watching the ins and outs of these changing brackets multiple times a week, I really feel like the only thing standing between us and a firm spot in the tournament is a signature win the Committee can point to. That's how a team like Providence can jump over us by beating an 'okay' Marquette team.
 
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