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Bracketology 2017

Deacsfan27 said:
Yeah, Wake clearly has a hard conference schedule relative to pretty much any other team not in the ACC or Big 12, but that's not what was being debated here, it was the fact that Wake had a hard conference schedule, and that's not true. We got lucky with our schedule quite frankly.
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Really don't buy this. If our home and road schedules were flipped, then yes, we would've lucked out.

But given how tough it is to win on the road in this league, and how highly valued quality wins are, we were unlucky that we didn't get VT, Syracuse, Notre Dame, UVa or FSU on our home floor, and weren't able to accure the quality wins that would've come out of that, like so many others in our conference were able to
 
wsc8521s said:
Really don't buy this. If our home and road schedules were flipped, then yes, we would've lucked out.

But given how tough it is to win on the road in this league, and how highly valued quality wins are, we were unlucky that we didn't get VT, Syracuse, Notre Dame, UVa or FSU on our home floor, and weren't able to accure the quality wins that would've come out of that, like so many others in our conference were able to
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I actually agree with both these posts. Relative to how our schedule could have otherwise been given what other ACC teams faced we lucked out. Relative to what our own schedule could have been if the home/away games were simply flipped, we did not luck out.

I think BSD wrote an article a couple weeks ago (it wasn't me and I don't recall who) about what the impact of flipping our home/road games would be and I think it showed we would have likely had another win or two at that point of the year. Playing bad teams at home isn't really great since it means you're likely playing good teams on the road.
 
wsc8521s said:
Really don't buy this. If our home and road schedules were flipped, then yes, we would've lucked out.

But given how tough it is to win on the road in this league, and how highly valued quality wins are, we were unlucky that we didn't get VT, Syracuse, Notre Dame, UVa or FSU on our home floor, and weren't able to accure the quality wins that would've come out of that, like so many others in our conference were able to
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Sure, but we still got lucky in the context of the ACC schedules. It could have been much harder than what it was.
 
We lucked out that we didn't get Pitt's or Clemson's schedules that were basically a non-stop murderer's row, but I wouldn't say we lucked out overall.

Perhaps the biggest plus is that our schedule gave us the wiggle room to overcome losing to Clemson at home
 
wsc8521s said:
Really don't buy this. If our home and road schedules were flipped, then yes, we would've lucked out.

But given how tough it is to win on the road in this league, and how highly valued quality wins are, we were unlucky that we didn't get VT, Syracuse, Notre Dame, UVa or FSU on our home floor, and weren't able to accure the quality wins that would've come out of that, like so many others in our conference were able to
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well, we got Duke on our home floor, and assuming UNC takes care of business, the rest of the ACC will have gone 6-2 against them at home.
we got Clemson on our home floor, and the rest of the ACC went 7-1 against them in that situation.
 
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Stepping back a bit from this season and focusing more broadly on "luck" in scheduling in the ACC, I think you need to look at the permanent partners concept the ACC uses for scheduling. Every team is assigned two other teams that they will play a home and home with every single year. This creates an imbalance from the get go for some teams.

For example, Wake's two permanent partners are Duke and State so four of our conference games are against those two teams. On the flip side of this, Syracuse gets BC and Pitt every year while ND gets BC and Georgia Tech. Most years that's a built in advantage for Syracuse and Notre Dame to get conference wins compared to a team like Wake.
 
thatguy2016 said:
well, we got Duke on our home floor, and assuming UNC takes care of business, the rest of the ACC will have gone 6-2 against them at home.
we got Clemson on our home floor, and the rest of the ACC went 7-1 against them in that situation.
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Good points, esp. on Duke. I really wish we hadn't got them coming off the State loss. Yes we could've and should've won, but perhaps they wouldn't have mounted such a valiant comeback if they weren't so desperate off that disaster
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Stepping back a bit from this season and focusing more broadly on "luck" in scheduling in the ACC, I think you need to look at the permanent partners concept the ACC uses for scheduling. Every team is assigned two other teams that they will play a home and home with every single year. This creates an imbalance from the get go for some teams.

For example, Wake's two permanent partners are Duke and State so four of our conference games are against those two teams. On the flip side of this, Syracuse gets BC and Pitt every year while ND gets BC and Georgia Tech. Most years that's a built in advantage for Syracuse and Notre Dame to get conference wins compared to a team like Wake.
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Just do a double round-robin and fill the other two games with whoever you want.

28 conference games, 2 non-conference games. Solves the imbalance issues.
 
wsc8521s said:
We lucked out that we didn't get Pitt's or Clemson's schedules that were basically a non-stop murderer's row, but I wouldn't say we lucked out overall.

Perhaps the biggest plus is that our schedule gave us the wiggle room to overcome losing to Clemson at home
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But if we had Pitt's or Clemson's schedule, what would have happened when we played ourselves ?
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Stepping back a bit from this season and focusing more broadly on "luck" in scheduling in the ACC, I think you need to look at the permanent partners concept the ACC uses for scheduling. Every team is assigned two other teams that they will play a home and home with every single year. This creates an imbalance from the get go for some teams.

For example, Wake's two permanent partners are Duke and State so four of our conference games are against those two teams. On the flip side of this, Syracuse gets BC and Pitt every year while ND gets BC and Georgia Tech. Most years that's a built in advantage for Syracuse and Notre Dame to get conference wins compared to a team like Wake.
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I would imagine Syracuse and Notre Dame would gladly trade us BC for Duke if we really want
 
wsc8521s said:
Really don't buy this. If our home and road schedules were flipped, then yes, we would've lucked out.

But given how tough it is to win on the road in this league, and how highly valued quality wins are, we were unlucky that we didn't get VT, Syracuse, Notre Dame, UVa or FSU on our home floor, and weren't able to accure the quality wins that would've come out of that, like so many others in our conference were able to
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This was part of my original point. We only got shots at home at 3 of the marque teams (Duke, UNC & L'vill) and went 1-2. We laid an egg with the Clemson loss, but since we get killed for our record against RPI top 50 it would have been nice to get more of them at home.
 
Clearly our home and homes this year were favorable although we proceeded to not take advantage of it at all. We went 4-4 when 5-3 was really more of a minimum benchmark looking back.

Home only: UNC UL Pitt Mia GT
Road only: FSU VT VA Syr ND

Let's project a lose to VT, so that's 4-6 with 2 quality wins. Flip these groups home and away I'd give us 4-6 with 3 quality wins (ND, Syr, VT). Basically a wash since we got Louisville which was worth VT and Syracuse combined.

The whole thing is a wash to complain about home vs. road. But overall the "easy" ACC schedule worked out good for us.


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I think we go at least 5-5 if they're flipped, and perhaps 6-4. 4-1 at home and we get at least one road win over GT or Pitt
 
Yea it could have happened, I assumed losses to FSU and UVA and you are giving us one of those which is doable. Hell if we started the season with a big FSU win at home, that might have changed a lot of things. We may have beat Clemson and then not have had to chase a .500 record all year long either


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so flipping the schedule would have given us maybe 1 more win, maybe 2, maybe 0.

beating Clemson and Duke at home, which the rest of the ACC did 81% of the time (I believe that is the inverse of a long shot) would have gotten us 2 more wins for sure.
 
thatguy2016 said:
so flipping the schedule would have given us maybe 1 more win, maybe 2, maybe 0.
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Adding at least one more quality win to our resume would do wonders for it. Hence why everyone assumes we're in if we beat VT.

thatguy2016 said:
beating Clemson and Duke at home, which the rest of the ACC did 81% of the time (I believe that is the inverse of a long shot) would have gotten us 2 more wins for sure.
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We are all aware that we lost these games, in spectacular circumstances. They both can be true -- that we could've been in better shape with a different schedule, and that we could've been in better shape if we finished the deal in either game vs. Duke or Clemson
 
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wsc8521s said:
Adding at least one more quality win to our resume would do wonders for it.
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agreed, losing that winnable game to Duke on our home floor still stings.

I think the focus is being incorrectly placed on "luck" here. Good teams are able to capitalize when luck presents itself. And it did present itself to WF this season. If WF had controlled what it could control, we'd be talking about tournament seeding. WF has an eminently winnable game in 28 hours. Doesn't really matter where the game is, WF can win it.
 
Yep - almost nothing to do with luck and all to do with missing opportunities that actually occurred in the real world.


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