w84it
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I've never done it, so I can't say - I, for one, cannot imagine a more stressful situation for a kicker, however.
Bradsha'w's TD, should he or shouldn't he?
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I've never done it, so I can't say - I, for one, cannot imagine a more stressful situation for a kicker, however.
Teamramrod
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TuffaloDeac10
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End of game FGs are supposed to be more stressful than mid-game kicks, but accuracy in "clutch" field goals is comparable to non-clutch attempts. So why should we expect a link between stress and performance?
IAppreciateIt
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Your baseball example is stupid and not applicable. The batter has no choice in the matter of whether he's intentionally walked or not. If the batter could choose to reject the intentional walk, then you would have a similar situation, but they can't.
Football is a pretty classic example of the zero sum game. Unless it was an exactly 50/50 situation, if one team made a good decision, the other made a bad one.
bernbp5
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You're wrong. It is a zero sum game. Every event affects the winning percentage of both team. They play each other so each effect helps one team and hurts another. An intentional walk is a bad play. It always increases the chance of a run scoring and decreases your winning percentage.
barrpet11
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I'm having a hard time stomaching some of these comments.
Every single decision with 2 outcomes has a right and wrong answer (except if they are 50-50). If it can be shown that the probability of one decision leads to a higher percent chance of achieving the desired outcome, then it is the right answer. End of story.
The inherent problem with trying to determine which play is better mathematically is that the probabilities that we are assigning to each outcome are subjective. However, this does NOT mean that the argument “take the points and go from there” is valid.
If you are claiming that the right play is to take the touchdown, what you are essentially saying is the following: “The probability that the Patriots march down the field and score a touchdown with one timeout and 57 seconds remaining is greater than (>) the probability that the Giants will be able to keep the ball for 2 downs, take the clock down to roughly 9 seconds, and kick an extra point length field goal, all things considered.” This can also be stated: “The Giants have a better chance of winning by scoring the touchdown, because it is less likely that they will be able to keep the ball for two downs and kick a field goal than the Patriots scoring a touchdown with 57 seconds and one timeout.”
There is literally no other way to look at it. For those who claim that you can’t bring statistics into it, by claiming that one option is better than the other, you are asserting the one option is statistically more likely to lead to a win. You would never do something purposefully that would result in you having a lower chance of winning.
This is why a comment like, “Yes he should have scored the touchdown, because you always take the points,” is ridiculous. You cannot say that there are too many variables to take into account, because by asserting that one option is better, you have already taken those variables into account and made a statistical decision.
My thoughts are that kneeling and playing for the field goal win would have been the best option. Even though the numbers are subjective, I just don’t see a situation where the chance of doing that successfully is lower than Brady marching down the field and scoring. I thought Nonny demonstrated this quite well, and even if some leeway is allowed in the numbers, kneeling is still>touchdown.
//end statistics rant
Every single decision with 2 outcomes has a right and wrong answer (except if they are 50-50). If it can be shown that the probability of one decision leads to a higher percent chance of achieving the desired outcome, then it is the right answer. End of story.
The inherent problem with trying to determine which play is better mathematically is that the probabilities that we are assigning to each outcome are subjective. However, this does NOT mean that the argument “take the points and go from there” is valid.
If you are claiming that the right play is to take the touchdown, what you are essentially saying is the following: “The probability that the Patriots march down the field and score a touchdown with one timeout and 57 seconds remaining is greater than (>) the probability that the Giants will be able to keep the ball for 2 downs, take the clock down to roughly 9 seconds, and kick an extra point length field goal, all things considered.” This can also be stated: “The Giants have a better chance of winning by scoring the touchdown, because it is less likely that they will be able to keep the ball for two downs and kick a field goal than the Patriots scoring a touchdown with 57 seconds and one timeout.”
There is literally no other way to look at it. For those who claim that you can’t bring statistics into it, by claiming that one option is better than the other, you are asserting the one option is statistically more likely to lead to a win. You would never do something purposefully that would result in you having a lower chance of winning.
This is why a comment like, “Yes he should have scored the touchdown, because you always take the points,” is ridiculous. You cannot say that there are too many variables to take into account, because by asserting that one option is better, you have already taken those variables into account and made a statistical decision.
My thoughts are that kneeling and playing for the field goal win would have been the best option. Even though the numbers are subjective, I just don’t see a situation where the chance of doing that successfully is lower than Brady marching down the field and scoring. I thought Nonny demonstrated this quite well, and even if some leeway is allowed in the numbers, kneeling is still>touchdown.
//end statistics rant
AnonymousDeac
Well-known member
Thread kill.