IAI is sounding significantly more logical than dv7 here, although I think I still see where dv7 is coming from.
I wonder if you can sort of combine what the two of your are saying:
If the player is a true 80% free throw shooter and he misses, then that player simply did not put forth a skilled enough effort to succeed on that attempt. That is not "luck" (which we'll continue to allow as a stand in for noise/variance/etc.). However, the opponent, who has no control whatsoever over that free throw attempt, has gotten "lucky." They would logically have expected that player to make that free throw, as it was much more likely than not that he would. He didn't make it, and therefore they can very reasonably consider themselves "lucky."
I think my point is that "luck" can be much more easily observed on the side of the party that doesn't actually control the outcome.
In the case of the soccer shot off the post, the player who took the shot simply did not take a good enough shot to succeed in that particular instance (not enough skill). But the defending team realizes that he was fully capable of striking the ball ever so slightly differently and drilling it in the upper 90. Therefore, they consider themselves "lucky," and I think that is a reasonable assessment.
Also, Stevens is awesome.
I wonder if you can sort of combine what the two of your are saying:
If the player is a true 80% free throw shooter and he misses, then that player simply did not put forth a skilled enough effort to succeed on that attempt. That is not "luck" (which we'll continue to allow as a stand in for noise/variance/etc.). However, the opponent, who has no control whatsoever over that free throw attempt, has gotten "lucky." They would logically have expected that player to make that free throw, as it was much more likely than not that he would. He didn't make it, and therefore they can very reasonably consider themselves "lucky."
I think my point is that "luck" can be much more easily observed on the side of the party that doesn't actually control the outcome.
In the case of the soccer shot off the post, the player who took the shot simply did not take a good enough shot to succeed in that particular instance (not enough skill). But the defending team realizes that he was fully capable of striking the ball ever so slightly differently and drilling it in the upper 90. Therefore, they consider themselves "lucky," and I think that is a reasonable assessment.
Also, Stevens is awesome.