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Chicago Cubs Thread - Playoff Push Pending

One of the Cubs beat writers went on the radio on Saturday and said the Cubs and Castellanos have a deal in place, but the Cubs are asking him to hold off until they can get some money moved around and sorted. Not sure how much to believe of this, but he said its been done for a few weeks.
 
That would mean Bryant is on the move IMO as he is the only big money asset they could ‘easily’ trade.
 
IckerDeac said:
That would mean Bryant is on the move IMO as he is the only big money asset they could ‘easily’ trade.
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Part of that conversation included the thought that Schwarber would be moved - and there was another report today from Rosenthal about the Yanks being interested in Schwarbs (nothing new). The issue is Schwarber wont free up that much and you likely aren't getting the value for him you'd want - or the value of what his 2nd half stats show.

It almost has to be KB at this point, but would still rather find some other solution. Cubs are still missing a starter, unless you want to go into the season with Alec Mills or Tyler Chatwood as the 5th - and they need at least one more impact bat (which could be on the team if Happ or Schwarber play like they did last year and KB, Rizzo and Baez are all rockstars - or if Nico is the real deal).
 
If it's a question of Bryant or Castellanos, I prefer Bryant. Schwarber's bat finally fulfilled expectations after the all star game. It's hard to believe the front office would move him without adequate compensation. The FO will be patient. They still believe this is a championship level core in need of tweaking not tear down.
 
BlackjackMc said:
If it's a question of Bryant or Castellanos, I prefer Bryant. Schwarber's bat finally fulfilled expectations after the all star game. It's hard to believe the front office would move him without adequate compensation. The FO will be patient. They still believe this is a championship level core in need of tweaking not tear down.
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Its not really. The Cubs need to move money, so they claim - Bryant frees up an expected $18 mil or so. Castellanos wont cost that much, but he would be an option if the Cubs had money - and KB would net back a decent haul, which is hopefully the 5th starter and a MLB bat. The last trade I saw projected was for the Braves, Max Fried, Ender Inciarte and one of the Braves minor league pitching studs for KB. I'm not sure the Braves want to part with Fried, but they legit have 3 or 4 MLB arms coming up, so it wouldn't really hurt.
 
Again, would prefer if they can keep KB and move some other money, there just isn't much room to do it. If you could get someone to take JHey and the Cubs eat 60% of the salary, that could save $8-$9 million per year - or even do a bad contract swap. The JHey for Johnny Cueto thing has come up a few times, but that would lock the Giants in for 1 extra year and wouldn't do anything to luxury tax issue.

The inability to have any real young arms is probably more the problem than JHey. At this point, the top 4 in our rotation cost $64 million and we have another $30 million tied up in 2 relievers, who may not actually be any good.
 
DaDeacs said:
Its not really. The Cubs need to move money, so they claim - Bryant frees up an expected $18 mil or so. Castellanos wont cost that much, but he would be an option if the Cubs had money - and KB would net back a decent haul, which is hopefully the 5th starter and a MLB bat. The last trade I saw projected was for the Braves, Max Fried, Ender Inciarte and one of the Braves minor league pitching studs for KB. I'm not sure the Braves want to part with Fried, but they legit have 3 or 4 MLB arms coming up, so it wouldn't really hurt.
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If Bryant will get moved, it will be interesting to see what Theo gets in return. He has a reputation as a good GM. Hopefully he can convince other GMs to send equal or greater quality to the Cubs and they don't perceive the Cubs to be in a must-move $ situation permitting that team to lowball Theo.
 
Buttermaker said:
If Bryant will get moved, it will be interesting to see what Theo gets in return. He has a reputation as a good GM. Hopefully he can convince other GMs to send equal or greater quality to the Cubs and they don't perceive the Cubs to be in a must-move $ situation permitting that team to lowball Theo.
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Theo has a lot of hits and a lot of misses - we are in the scenario now where his misses are closing the Cubs window a year or two sooner than they wanted. He won a world series, and the team should have been good enough to get back one of the last 3 years, but didn't. The lack of pitching depth required him to spend a lot on quality starters, then a couple of whiffs on Chatwood and Darvish killed 2018. Darvish looks ok moving forward now, but Heywards overspend, the 5th year on Lester and Kimbrel have the Cubs in a scenario where they can't spend. Well, technically they just don't want to.

To get competitive, the Cubs need an impact bat, a usable 5th starter and probably one more pen piece. If they signed whats on the market, Castellanos is the best bat left and he is going to be $14 million or so. They could get a 5th pitcher for $5 million or less, depending on how you feel about reclamation projects like Felix Hernandex, Matt Moore, Gio Gonzalez, Aaron Sanchez or something like that. They could probably resign Cishek or Kintzler for 2/$10 or something. Thats $24 million and would create a team thats:

C - Contreras / Caratini
1B - Rizzo
2B - Hoerner / Descalso / Happ
SS - Baez
3B - KBryant
LF - Schwarber / Castellanos
CF - Happ / Almora / JHey
RF - Castellanos / JHey

SP - Darvish / Hendricks / Quintana / Lester / Reclamation Project (or Mills or Cotton or Chatwood or Rea)
RP - Cotton / Chatwood / Megill / Winkler / Ryan / Wick / Wieck / Cishek
CP - Kimbrel

Still not sure that team can win the world series with how they played last year, but I think that puts us in contention in the Central with the Cards and the Reds. And would love to remove Descalso and get anything else in as the 26th man, but he has a $2.5 million number right now and the Cubs are money restricted.
 
End of season the CF, 2B, pitching and a lead off hitter were mentioned as areas of concern. I'm not reading 2B and lead off now. It may be that Hoerner, Happ and Bote are seen as offering a solution at 2B or that Rizzo is being considered to lead off. Ross may be offering his thoughts.

Hoerner seems like a lock to make the team. Whether he can produce will be the question. He offered an approach at the plate the Cubs had been missing. At present, he is the only player who can play SS behind Baez.
 
BlackjackMc said:
End of season the CF, 2B, pitching and a lead off hitter were mentioned as areas of concern. I'm not reading 2B and lead off now. It may be that Hoerner, Happ and Bote are seen as offering a solution at 2B or that Rizzo is being considered to lead off. Ross may be offering his thoughts.

Hoerner seems like a lock to make the team. Whether he can produce will be the question. He offered an approach at the plate the Cubs had been missing. At present, he is the only player who can play SS behind Baez.
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I think most of the talking heads now think Happ, Nico and Almora can fill the 2B/CF void - or whatever comes back in trade for whoever. Descalso can play SS, he is almost a lock to make the team unless they can shed salary and afford to cut him. There are also rumors going around that Happ could play 3rd if Bryant does get dealt.

A leadoff hitter is still a problem, in the sense that we need a high contact, low K guy - but Nico might be able to be that guy, it could have been Almora, but he is regressing badly.

Pitching is a need because after Hendricks, nothing is certain. Is Darvish the same pitcher as the 2nd half? Can Quintana be consistent? Does Lester have anything left? The pen seems ok, if Megill can pitch the way it seems and Wick, Ryan, Wieck can be a good pen if Kimbrel can figure out how to pitch and if Cotton can be "fixed". There are a ton of reclamation options for SP on the market that can be had cheap, not sure if that is still something the Cubs are good at or not. They definitely need 1 more starter, and probably 1 more pen piece that is above serviceable (like what theyve done so far with Winkler/Megill).
 
Pure speculation.

Lester, Quintana and Darvish are solid. Lester because of pride, acumen and mean. Quintana because of money/free agency. Darvish because he is confident, happy and he is due a career year. Hendricks is Hendricks. Chatwood and/or Mills cover the fifth starter. Mills because I trust Maddon's judgement on him. Chatwood harnesses his ability. The bullpen will be good. Kimbrel because he was embarrassed, is without distraction and Lester rubs off. Everyone else will have real opportunity and power arms. Most importantly, Ross can still catch. Throwing to the manager makes a difference.
 
The rest of the central is stocking up. Reds have, probably, the best starting staff in the division, and added Moosetacos to a lineup that already had Votto, Suarez and Aquino. They are also trying to trade for Lindor, to presumably take over for Freddy Galvis. The Cardinals picked up the Korean SP, are looking to bring back Ozuna and would basically have the same team that went 91-71 and won the Central. The Brewers lost Grandal, but traded for a high upside prospect in Urias, and have added Avisail Garcia, Sogard and Smoak on cheap deals the last couple of days to fill in gaps - their pitching is still suspect, but they made the playoffs with basically the same staff the last two years.

Cubs need to do something - my guess is they are waiting on Bryants grievance because they couldn't find any takers on their garbage players and couldn't find a good enough offer for Schwarbs or Willie. There is a rumor that the Cubs wanted Sogard, but got outbid for him by the Brewers on a 1/$4.5 - not sure I buy that, there is just as much chance of him pulling a Descalso instead of replicating last year, and the Cubs already own that lotto ticket.
 
Catching up on some post holiday rumors - Cubs are still looking to deal and not going to add anything more until they can get rid of salary.

In terms of removing salary, supposedly the Twins, Nats and Braves all have 4 years deals on the table to Donaldson, with the Dodgers as a potential suitor too. Assuming he picks the Braves, still leaves the Nats and Dodgers as possible options for a KB trade, maybe Philly too. The Cubs have supposedly asked the Nats for a package centered around Victor Robles, which the Nats have said no on. The other interesting piece out there is Nolan Arenado, who Jon Morosi said is 50/50 going to be moved this offseason, which is kinda weird, since he just signed that monster deal and would be a $32.5 million hit on anyones payroll and would also require a decent haul of talent. But, thats still another obstacle to moving Bryant, if and when his grievance is settled. Morosi also mentioned the Cubs as a potential landing spot for Arenado, but no clue how that would happen unless we unload Bryant to someone, then flip that talent or equal to the Rockies and they take on one of our big contracts (Lester? Chatwood? Kimbrel?). Really don't see that happening, but there were rumors a year or so back that the Cubs liked Arenado more than Bryant and were going to take a run at him if he hit FA.

Cubs still likely in need of a 5th starter too, but that will probably have to wait until we see how everything else shakes out. Also, Castellanos still out there, can always dream - but I bet he ends up in Texas or takes a lesser contract with a contender like the Angels or Cards.
 
I wonder if "reducing salary" is a cover for minimal change. With the exception of Bryant, the bigger salaries belong to players with reduced attractiveness. I doubt Lester, Darvish, Heyward, Chatwood or Kimbrel are in great demand. Rizzo isn't leaving. Everyone else is at $12 million or under.
 
BlackjackMc said:
I wonder if "reducing salary" is a cover for minimal change. With the exception of Bryant, the bigger salaries belong to players with reduced attractiveness. I doubt Lester, Darvish, Heyward, Chatwood or Kimbrel are in great demand. Rizzo isn't leaving. Everyone else is at $12 million or under.
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Yes and no, the new luxury tax rules are a bit crazy. For instance, there were rumors that the Red Sox wanted to take Travis Shaw on a 1/$4, but were unwilling to do it because with the luxury tax in place for a 3rd year in a row on them, that $4 million would cost them somewhere in the range of $30 million with the additional tax.

There is a piece out there on the Luxury Tax I can't find, but it is basically set up to deter teams from crossing the threshold multiple years in a row and escalates extremely high in the 2nd and 3rd years over the threshold - and the reason the Cubs want to get under this year is because they were over last year and if they need to go over next year, they can have some wiggle room.
 
Good explanation. The Chatwood and Quintana contracts that total $23.5 million end after this season. Cubs have an option on Descalso for 2021 that would eliminate $2.5 million. The option to trades this off season would be to stand pat, pay the tax and hope the present roster can make the playoffs. As the season progresses other contenders could offer more for key players. From a financial standpoint, it seems obvious the Cubs are sellers not buyers.
 
The Nolan Arenado rumors continue, a second report out, as Jeff Passan pegged the Cubs as a likely landing spot if he is moved. The return he suggested is Contreras and an overpriced, underperforming player - and while there are a bunch of those on the Cubs, the likely insinuation is Jason Heyward. I cannot see any chance in hell of the Rockies flipping Arenado and his $234 million owed for Willy and JHey - now they would be saving a ton, as Willy is going to be in the $4-$5 million range this year, controlled for 3 more years and JHey only has $86 million left, but that seems like a complete bailout from the Rockies, which doesn't seem like the real plan. The report also suggests that if the Rocks want more than just that, the Cubs may be less inclined. But, if this were an actual option, I can't imagine the Cubs would say no to an Arenado for Willy/JHey and either 1 or possibly 2 players from the 5-15 top prospect list (basically anyone not name Marquez, Amaya or Davis). This deal would obviously also hinge on the Cubs trading KB - because JHey + Willy is $28 million on the payroll and Arenado is $35 million, so the Cubs would have to move KBs $18 million and then would be left with $11 million to fill the RF vacancy, the bullpen and backup catcher. Seems tough.

All this also doesn't include that Arenado has an opt out after 2021, so the Cubs giving up Willy and prospects for 2 years of Arenado would be worthless - they would need to get him to waive that opt-out (ie pay him more) - and the other hurdles are Arenados no trade clause and JHeys no trade clause. Sun/moon/stars would have to align for this to really be anywhere close. But, people keep talking about it, so who knows.

Also, Cishek saying in Chicago, just moving to the south side. Wish him luck.
 
Cubs have 6 guys in Arb, today is the last day to agree to not have to go to arbitration.

KBryant - agreed already at $18.6, as expected
Javy - expecting $9 million-ish, nothing yet
Schwarbs - expecting $7-$8 million, nothing yet
Willy - expecting $4.5 million, nothing yet
Almora - agreed already at $1.575, expectation was closer to $2
Kyle Ryan - expecting $1 million, nothing yet

Getting Bryant in early is good, still waiting on his grievance hearing - could still be another week or two away.
 
All in. Baez gets $10, Schwarbs $7, Willy $4.5 and Ryan $1.

They come in right at the total arb prediction needed - still a decent amount over luxury tax, but at least no surprises.
 
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