Think we win a close, ugly game tonight.
Last time, we lost 61-53. Although we shot 70% from the line, we only took 10 free throws, and otherwise could not have shot any worse than we did: 36.2% from the field and 4/17 from 3. Clemson on the other hand, far outperformed their in-conference averages: 46.% from the floor and 18/21 (!) from the FT line, despite shooting a miserable 39.3% on the ACC season (good for 14th). (Note that Clemson is an excellent FT shooting team generally, but 18/21 is an outlier any way you slice it.)
When you glance at the other stats, you see we lost more or less because we couldn't make shots. We committed only 10 turnovers, the only guy in any legitimate foul trouble was Rountree, and we actually outrebounded Clemson 32-31 (which included 14 offensive rebounds for us).
One key I remember is the block party Clemson hosted on defense; no doubt that their 10 blocked shots contributed substantially to our poor shooting, but practically and from a more subjective, 'shot selection'-esque standpoint (i.e., we got scerred to go in therr).
Clemson's biggest advantage quite obviously is their defense: they are 3rd in the ACC in opponents' PPG (58.7), though just 8th in FG% against (42.7%). They also defend the 3 very well and are, obviously, a far superior rebounding team--though not nearly to the extent UNC was. (UNC is far and away the best rebounding team in the league per rebounding margin at +6.9; Clemson is a decent-but-not-great +0.5 on the boards, good for 5th in the conference. And yes, we are dead last.)
My guess is tonight we find a way to scrap out a few extra buckets and maybe get a little home court luck with the officials, leading to fewer FT attempts for Clemson and possibly more fouls on their block attempts. Put it all together and I see us winning something like 62-56 in an utterly unwatchable performance.
