Not really. Especially when you consider that NBA players are practicing and playing against much better competition, over a much longer season with much more time for individual workouts, training and film study. I don’t know why people insist on holding onto this idea that it’s better for player development to stay in college. It’s just not true. Collins put up 19 & 10 in the ACC as a sophomore. He doesn't need PT & confidence building. He needs to work on defending the pick and roll against guys like Dame Lillard not Maverick fucking Rowan.
Also, one of those scenarios involves 3 million in guaranteed money and the other doesn’t. So…
Name 5-10 big guys picked in the middle of the first round to the end who have developed well in the NBA in the past 5 years to earn above average money at their position.
I've got Kenneth Faried (played 4 years) and Taj Gibson (played 3 years) from 2009-2013 drafts (Those guys are off their rookie deals so now we get to see their salaries, so that's a good 5 year window).
Collins is going to get mid first round money next year too. There's a reason prevailing wisdom is you sit NFL QB's a few years even if they're ready as a rookie. Cause when they're done they're more likely to become Aaron Rodgers and get $200 mil and win a superbowl for you. Same applies to big men in today's NBA.
Watching us play, we seem to run almost every single possession through Collins. That's better for his game than practicing shooting 3's 5 hours a day in the NBA as some team tries to turn him into a stretch 4. I'm not convinced there are that many big men coaches on NBA benches that are better than Danny.
Now you may be saying "well you found a comp at 3 years and 4 years.... how about a comp for someone who stayed in for 2 years?"
Go back from 2009-2013, that's 5 years, start around 15 and look for big men and find me a guy who came out early who developed with all that daily intense training you speak of. Actually , I'll list them for you.
A full list of mid first rounders to late first round bigs from 2009-2013, which of these players developed from constant film training and study? I'm going in order.
Tyler Hansbrough
Austin Daye
Byron Mullens
Craig Brackens
Trevor Booker (got paid, 4 years, didn't develop much)
Daniel Orton
Larry Sanders
Pattrick Patterson
Ed Davis
Cole Aldrich (Ok .... so finally here are 3 decent guys in a row. Oh wait, who was their college coach? That's right. Danny Manning)
Markieff Morris
Marcus Morris
Dontas Montejunis
Chris Singleton
Tobias Harris (missed him, but came in as a SF, so is a stretch 4)
JaJuan Johnson
John Henson
Tyler Zeller
Andrew Nicholson
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Miles Plumlee
Perry Jones III
Festus Ezeli
Lucas Noguiera
Gourgi Dieng
Mason Plumlee (Missed one, 4 year player)
Rudy Gobert (I imagine the French pro league is just like college)
So to summarize, 5 people got paid drafted in the 13-30 spot coming out after 2 or 1 years. Everyone who ended up making $10 mil a year was a 3-4 year player.
If I had to imagine the lives of the guys above it doesn't seem like that much fun, If I'm JC.... I stay one more year. You get to spend an entire year basically being the biggest celebrity of any room you walk into.
I can't imagine what could possibly take him out the first round the following year, and if he ever got close then he just goes to the championship contender. If he starts draining 3's he's a top 5 pick.
Collins isn't being drafted on potential, he's being drafted on skill. You go early if you're being drafted on potential. He's got almost no risk, and can get an insurance policy. He's not a fluke and he isn't going to get worse.