I provided facts. You provided bad math and name calling. Really not constructive buddy.
Here's some constructive math.
age difference - Italy 22% over 65, US 16% over 65
This
study from Wuhan shows 28.8% of patients over 65 progressed to "severe", while 13.9% of pre-65 patients progressed to "severe".
Using those numbers, 17.1% of Italian patients should be expected to be "severe" ((22% * 28.8%) + (78% * 13.9%)). The U.S. number is 16.3% of overall patients ((16% * 28.8%) + (84% * 13.9%))
so, based on age alone, Italy's risk of a severe case is roughly 5.5% higher (17.1%/16.3% = 105.5%)
Smokers:
using the same math, with smoker/non-smoker data from the study and including "former smokers" as "Smokers", the smoking risk adjustment is 4.2%
There is some overlap in the U.S. between smokers and age, but for simplicity, the adjustment for those two factors is roughly 10%.
If you take northern Italy's experience and adjust it downward 10%, it's still a very, very bleak picture.
Again, it's all about reducing transmission rates, and the theory that this will decline just like the flu is just that - a theory
