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Danny Manning Credibility Watch Thread Credibility Watch

Deacfreak07

Deacfreak07

Ain't played nobody, PAWL!
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Well...

The Deacs are coming off of a convincing win vs. Miami. Headed into a weekend game at NC State. ESPN is projecting we might make the NCAA Tournament. John Collins is developing into an All-ACC player.

We are 18 games in to the season and already have some quality wins. I want to give the DM Credibility Watch thread the benefit of the doubt but after this week, I am putting its credibility on watch.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
*I YIELD MY TIME TO RCHILDRESS107*
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Get ready for a Wendy Davis level filibuster.

In all honesty this thread is about a month overdue. Initial verdict is the Danny Manning Credibility Watch thread is no longer credible.

I'm working on a spreadsheet that will definitively show that thread is not credible by comparing it to similar threads about Dino, [name redacted], Sidney Lowe, and Tony Bennett.

Feel free to disagree with me, but show your work. I'll go ahead and warn you that you are probably wrong and if you choose not to support your shitty opinion I will pester you with an array of advanced statistics that will make your head spin.

Edit: I thought the self-deprecation was obvious, apparently not.
 
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TownieDeac said:
i'll just do this and judge for myself

statistical context is fine and all, i just like seeing good basketball and, you know, wins
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Me too. I would hope you've been enjoying the first, I suspect you will be seeing the second the rest of this year and next.

If you can only enjoy watching top 25 basketball teams I suggest you head east down I-40.
 
TownieDeac said:
i'll just do this and judge for myself

statistical context is fine and all, i just like seeing good basketball and, you know, wins
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You're a smart dude with high level logical reasoning skills. I'd love to hear your judgment of Manning and how you reached it. If only there was a place we could discuss such things, freely.
 
RChildress107 said:
You're a smart dude with high level logical reasoning skills. I'd love to hear your judgment of Manning and how you reached it. If only there was a place we could discuss such things, freely.
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He's better than Bz and worse than Odom and Prosser. Tossup with Gaudio.

Think he should be on the hot seat if we're not a 2nd round team next year pushing for T25.
 
RChildress107 said:
Care to share why on either of those statements?
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Not with statistical evidence, because I'm at work and have too many spreadsheets, R Studio, SQL Workbench, and Tableau already open. Just know there are people open to statistical arguments, swayed by statistical evidence and context, who are sick of relying on it as a way to soften the blow of mediocre seasons.
 
TownieDeac said:
Not with statistical evidence, because I'm at work and have too many spreadsheets, R Studio, SQL Workbench, and Tableau already open. Just know there are people open to statistical arguments, swayed by statistical evidence and context, who are sick of relying on it as a way to soften the blow of mediocre seasons.
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Fair enough. I think there's a difference between relying on statistics to "soften the blow of mediocre seasons" and using statistics to show that our season has not been mediocre.

Being the 40th best team in the country is either acceptable or it's not.

The statistics that rate us around #40 are either accurate or they aren't.

When answering #1 we should factor in what Manning inherited or we shouldn't.
 
TownieDeac said:
Not with statistical evidence, because I'm at work and have too many spreadsheets, R Studio, SQL Workbench, and Tableau already open. Just know there are people open to statistical arguments, swayed by statistical evidence and context, who are sick of relying on it as a way to soften the blow of mediocre seasons.
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It's almost as if nuance is an actual thing.
 
TownieDeac said:
He's better than Bz and worse than Odom and Prosser. Tossup with Gaudio.

Think he should be on the hot seat if we're not a 2nd round team next year pushing for T25.
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Dino Gaudio was a terrible head coach. He had a team with three NBA Top 20 picks and another NBA player on it and couldn't take that team out of the first round of the NCAAT. He panicked going into an NCAAT to start an unproven frosh over a senior in the NCAAT. He allowed a team with two NBA penetrating PGs be zoned.

As an assistant Dino was good. As a HC, he sucked. There is no way around this. He grossly underperformed the talent he had.
 
RChildress107 said:
Fair enough. I think there's a difference between relying on statistics to "soften the blow of mediocre seasons" and using statistics to show that our season has not been mediocre.

Being the 40th best team in the country is either acceptable or it's not.

The statistics that rate us around #40 are either accurate or they aren't.

When answering #1 we should factor in what Manning inherited or we shouldn't.
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Mediocrity in sports is measured by wins and losses, not by margin of victory / loss and strength of schedule.
 
TownieDeac said:
He's better than Bz and worse than Odom and Prosser. Tossup with Gaudio.

Think he should be on the hot seat if we're not a 2nd round team next year pushing for T25.
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And if we are doing those things, does he reach your criteria of a good coach worthy of long contract?
 
RJKarl said:
Dino Gaudio was a terrible head coach. He had a team with three NBA Top 20 picks and another NBA player on it and couldn't take that team out of the first round of the NCAAT. He panicked going into an NCAAT to start an unproven frosh over a senior in the NCAAT. He allowed a team with two NBA penetrating PGs be zoned.

As an assistant Dino was good. As a HC, he sucked. There is no way around this. He grossly underperformed the talent he had.
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Underperformed is accurate. Terrible is not.

61-31 is a reasonable expectation for Wake Forest as a whole, but with those players you would assume we'd have done more. More than likely involved Dino wanting to put his own name on the team and changing a few key aspects of the Prosser team plan.

But Terrible is not a word that should be associated with Dino...that's one reserved for the [name redacted]'s of the world.
 
Doggus said:
And if we are doing those things, does he reach your criteria of a good coach worthy of long contract?
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I think so, yea, but I'm just a guy.

More than anything I don't enjoy making every game a referendum on his jobworthiness. I think the Credibility thread has a bunch of bad knee jerk hottakes and this one win over Miami prompting this thread is more of the same.
 
I don't know that I've staked out a position on Manning one way or the other (blasphemous I know) other than to say this past offseason that I was surprised with how much of the fan base was seemingly against Manning.

It's hard to offer up where Manning stands in a vacuum, nor do I think it's particularly helpful, but it's also difficult to identify what context we should be providing for how Manning is doing. Do we compare him with previous Wake coaches, other ACC coaches at present, all other NCAA coaches at present, with other programs but also adding in some "multiplier" for where we as a fan base believe Wake "should" be compared to other programs (where success at, say, Duke, Wake, and NC A&T would all be viewed differently), or a mixture of all of this?

My current position is that Manning is doing a solid job at this juncture at Wake and that he has experienced some decent success this year. He's seemingly very good at identifying talent while recruiting and has shown pretty solid indicators that he is able to lock down good to great recruits. Similarly, he and his staff (which I think he gets credit for as well) have done a good to very good job of developing the talent that has been brought in. His in-game coaching has at times been pretty bad to downright terrible, but he still seems to be growing into his own style and identifying how he wants to manage games himself which makes sense as he's only been a head coach for five years. Do I wish he had more of an "identity" at this point? Maybe at times, but he seems open to changing how he operates (see substitution patterns changing a bit over time as well as use of time outs) - which I think is more than even the most ardent defenders of [name redacted] would or could say.

All-in-all I'm happy with Manning as our head coach for now and at this point I think that's all that really needs to be said or thought about. We can revisit Manning's position at the end of the season when there's a larger sample size and a third season to compare in whole to the previous two years.
 
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