Danny Manning Credibility Watch
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RChildress107
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We have 3 home games against top 10 teams and two more against borderline top 25 teams. (1 win)
Our other 4 home games are against teams ranked below us. (4 wins)
We have road games against Boston College, and NC State. (2 wins)
As a baseline that pretty quickly gets us to 7. It's not out of the question for us to win 2-3 games in that first group and maybe pick up a road win @ VT (similar to Northwestern) or one of our road games against that 5-9 group in the ACC (Cuse, ND, Clemson)
I'm predicting 16-14(7-11) but wouldn't be shocked if we get to 9-9.
Our other 4 home games are against teams ranked below us. (4 wins)
We have road games against Boston College, and NC State. (2 wins)
As a baseline that pretty quickly gets us to 7. It's not out of the question for us to win 2-3 games in that first group and maybe pick up a road win @ VT (similar to Northwestern) or one of our road games against that 5-9 group in the ACC (Cuse, ND, Clemson)
I'm predicting 16-14(7-11) but wouldn't be shocked if we get to 9-9.
pourdeac
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Why do so many people give us a win @NCSU?
6 Ws vs BC, Pitt, GaTech, Pitt, Clem, Miami.
1 W at BC.
3 Ls vs UNC, Duke, Louisville
8 Ls at UVa, Duke, Syracuse, ND, Clem, FSU, VTech, NCSU.
That's a doable scenario right now IMO. To get to 9 wins we'd need to win at VaTech and NCSU which are both places we struggle. Our outside shooting is much better so its possible but we can't drop any of the other games already in the W column.
Buttermaker
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State will only get better, you would think, once Yurtseven joins the team. And Va Tech will be tough in Blacksburg under Buzz.
RChildress107
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I agree, though our road schedule is very tough. BC should be a given and State and VT are doable. Everything else is a road game against a top 30 team. I think we are a year away from winning those types of games but I hope I'm wrong.
pourdeac
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LOL...or else what? The league is the toughest it's been in years so road games overall are going to be very hard to win. We have the highest Ken Pom ranking since our last tourney team but only have 2 road games vs teams currently worse than us in Ken Pom....one of which is NCSU and always a struggle. This isn't the year to throw down the gauntlet with high expectations and act all tough towards Manning.
TownieDeac
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lol idk what board you read
Deacsfan27
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He says on the thread questioning the credibility of our head coach.
I agree that we need to win more than a road game, especially since Wake is 0-18 in the ACC under Manning since he's been here. You have to think that that's a pretty big statistical anomaly though, and it's somewhat of a sunk cost/water under the bridge type scenario. Unlike [name redacted], we know that Manning can get his team prepared to win road games, there are just a lot of really good teams in the ACC.
If we can beat BC and one of State or VPI then we will be in fine shape if we take care of business at home.
ChrisL68
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Going better than 1-8 on the road for a kenpom top 50ish team is high expectations? Just because we have been absolutely pathetic on the road doesn't make it normal or acceptable.
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CantStandYa
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Historically competitive.
Seriously though, until we prove otherwise, this team does not have the makeup to win on the road in the ACC, except in Massachusetts.
pourdeac
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Haha....true but it's really just starting to sink in how tough the ACC is this year. We all knew it was projected to be good but things seem to be playing out that way as well so...throwing down these ultimatums with that kind of cliff to climb is pretty much senseless. We've improved statistically enough to move up in all the rankings (Ken Pom, RPI, etc). Just maintaining that would be a great season. Crawl, walk, run.
RChildress107
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I imagine kenpom only has us winning 1 road game, so yes expecting more than that would be high expectations. Not unreasonable though. I'll be disappointed if we don't pick up one or two more, especially given how close we were in some of our road games last year.
pourdeac
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We'll likely win more than one game on the road because we have shooters and a good closer, but IMO we'll likely lose one or two that we probably should have won at home. It remains to be seen if we can steal one vs the big boys. If we get on a hot shooting streak then 9-9 is certainly doable, but that's a big IFF.
ChrisL68
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Individually perhaps but on a composite basis I am sure our expected wins are over 2.0.
Deacsfan27
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KP has us at 2.62-6.38 (with .76 of that coming at BC), so he projects us slightly more likely to get 3 than 2.
Only one game over 50% though.
ChrisL68
Riley Skinner
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It's hard to be as pathetic on the road as we have been the last five years I think we all looked it up and the second to worst team averaged about one-and-a-half Road wins a year
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TownieDeac
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I'm not sure even Ken would say it's supposed to be predictive at this point.