What do you mean by reliable? In many ways the accuracy of the talent data is irrelevant as long as it is consistent.
If the data is accurate then Manning is going to be a hell of a coach. If it is inaccurate then Manning is a hell of a talent evaluator, which at the college level can lead to you being a hell of a coach.
A lot of good stuff in this thread from RC107.
IMO, obviously Buzz's tenure was the most disastrous thing a program could endure, but I do want to plug something that I think doesn't get enough attention/attribution for the hole we've had to climb out of the last few years. The number of transfers, and therefore lack of experienced senior classes has absolutely killed us. A list of seniors (and PPG/RPG) by year since 09-10:
10-11: Gary Clark - 10.9/2.2,
11-12: Nikita Mescheriakov - 8.0/3.9, Ty Walker - 4.2/4.6
12-13: CJ Harris - 15.4/2.3
13-14: Travis McKie - 10.7/4.1, Coron Williams (GT) - 10.2/2.2
14-15: Darius Leonard (GT) - 5.7/2.5,
15-16: Thomas - 15.6/10.2, CMM - 9.4/4.5
16-17: Arians (GT) - 8.8/2.1, Trent Van Horn - .3/.1
Meanwhile, transfers out have included: JT Terrell, Ari Stewart, Tony Chennault, Carson Desrosiers, Melvin Tabb, Chase Fischer, Daniel Green, Anthony Fields, Bill Moto, Tyler Cavanaugh, Madison Jones, Aaron Rountree, Andre Washington, Miles Overton, Rondale Watson, Cornelius Hudson.
In seven seasons, we've had just 11 senior scholarship players on our teams and just five were significant contributors who averaged double figures. And during that same span we have had 16 transfers. Having that few seniors on the roster, which may very well be the fewest in CBB during that timeframe, is an absolute killer.
The simple fact that, after releasing a few guys during his first year, Manning has pretty much stopped the attrition from the program is building towards a huge positive impact for the on-court results. Other than the real one-and-done programs (Kentucky, dook, etc.), most programs that are in the top 25-50 right now are relying on upperclassmen-laden rosters. Clemson, Notre Dame, VT, Miami all come to mind.
Looking at some of the graphs that birdman has included in this thread, the "x" axis during Manning's tenure has been unfairly skewed to the left, mainly because of the lack of experienced players on his rosters. Given that he's gotten this team to 43 in KP with virtually no senior presence during his two and a half seasons is pretty impressive to me. I think if we consider the fact that he will have actual senior classes the next few years (Dinos/Mitch in '17, potentially BC/JC/Doral in '18, and Key/Chill/SJM in '19), that alone should make a significant difference in the win-column.