FckVwls
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Let's ballpark it. My numbers are only estimates - but I think you will see that with any reasonable figures the correct decision will be the same.
Scenario: 4th and 1 at Florida State 6 down 11 points with 4 minutes to go:
Option 1 - Kick FG
To win game need 5 consecutive events to all occur (estimated percentage):
1. Make FG (93%) - Weaver is a good kicker, I'll give him 14/15 on such a short kick
2. Stop Florida State within reasonable time to get ball back (60%) - FSU offense struggling, will likely call vanilla plays to run clock
3. Drive the Field to Score TD after getting ball back (20%) - 1/5 seems about right in a 2 minute drill situation
4. Make 2 point conversion (45%) - Probably a bit less likely than national average with our offense against FSU defense
5. Win in Overtime (40%) - Even with a momentum have to be an underdog in OT in a game where you are 20 point dogs
Total Win Percentage = 2 percent
Option 2 - Go for Touchdown
1. Go for 4th and 1 at 6 yard line (45% make first down, 15% score touchdown, 40% miss/game over) - I think 60% make rate is about right in that scenario.
1a. - If First down made, Odds TD is scored next four plays (70% TD, 30% turn ball over on next set of downs)
Total TD make on drive = 15% + (45% * 70%) = 46%
1b. Go for 2 point conversion (45%) - Same as above
Total after first drive = 54% Game Over, 25% down 5, 21% down 3
Down 5:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (55%) - I'll go slightly lower than FG scenario due to less time on clock some of the time post score
3. Drive and score TD to win (15%) - Slightly lower than 20% above given possibly less time (although many times game clock would be similar)
Down 3:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (55%)
3. Drive and score TD to win (8%), Drive and score FG to tie (20%), Drive Fails (72%)
4. If Overtime, win percentage (40%) - Same earlier
Total win % = (25% * 55% * 15%) PLUS (21% * 55% * 8%) PLUS (21% * 20% * 40%)
= Total Win Percentage = 4%
Using these rough numbers, going for the first down doubles your chances of winning the game over kicking a FG. I would challenge anyone to change my numerical estimates above in a way that favors kicking the FG in the situation Wake Forest faced.
Scenario: 4th and 1 at Florida State 6 down 11 points with 4 minutes to go:
Option 1 - Kick FG
To win game need 5 consecutive events to all occur (estimated percentage):
1. Make FG (93%) - Weaver is a good kicker, I'll give him 14/15 on such a short kick
2. Stop Florida State within reasonable time to get ball back (60%) - FSU offense struggling, will likely call vanilla plays to run clock
3. Drive the Field to Score TD after getting ball back (20%) - 1/5 seems about right in a 2 minute drill situation
4. Make 2 point conversion (45%) - Probably a bit less likely than national average with our offense against FSU defense
5. Win in Overtime (40%) - Even with a momentum have to be an underdog in OT in a game where you are 20 point dogs
Total Win Percentage = 2 percent
Option 2 - Go for Touchdown
1. Go for 4th and 1 at 6 yard line (45% make first down, 15% score touchdown, 40% miss/game over) - I think 60% make rate is about right in that scenario.
1a. - If First down made, Odds TD is scored next four plays (70% TD, 30% turn ball over on next set of downs)
Total TD make on drive = 15% + (45% * 70%) = 46%
1b. Go for 2 point conversion (45%) - Same as above
Total after first drive = 54% Game Over, 25% down 5, 21% down 3
Down 5:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (55%) - I'll go slightly lower than FG scenario due to less time on clock some of the time post score
3. Drive and score TD to win (15%) - Slightly lower than 20% above given possibly less time (although many times game clock would be similar)
Down 3:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (55%)
3. Drive and score TD to win (8%), Drive and score FG to tie (20%), Drive Fails (72%)
4. If Overtime, win percentage (40%) - Same earlier
Total win % = (25% * 55% * 15%) PLUS (21% * 55% * 8%) PLUS (21% * 20% * 40%)
= Total Win Percentage = 4%
Using these rough numbers, going for the first down doubles your chances of winning the game over kicking a FG. I would challenge anyone to change my numerical estimates above in a way that favors kicking the FG in the situation Wake Forest faced.