http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9789176/2013-14-college-basketball-preview-wake-forest-demon-deacons
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
2012-13: 13-18 (6-12 ACC)
In-conference offense: 0.95 points per possession (10th)
In-conference defense: 1.03 points allowed per possession (8th)
The Wake Forest natives are restless, and at least one billboard calling for the firing of both head coach Jeff [Redacted] and athletic director Ron Wellman has made an appearance in Winston-Salem, N.C. (#BuzzOut.) In that atmosphere, searching for silver linings can look like missing the forest for the trees. But you already know Chris Paul's alma mater is just 11-39 in ACC regular-season play under [Redacted], so here's something you might not have heard. Last season's 6-12 record could have been even worse.
No ACC team saw a greater disparity between its own effective field goal percentage in conference play (46.8) and that of its opponents (51.9). Bzedlik's men managed to make just 46 percent of their 2s and 33 percent of their 3s in conference play. For the ACC teams Wake faced, those numbers were 50 and 39, respectively. That's a very large difference, the kind that can result in a record that's worse than 6-12.
But the Deacons had a couple things going for them. They were excellent at getting to the line, and, even though Wake committed too many turnovers, the team was able to generate almost exactly the same number of takeaways. Both factors mitigated a severe deficit in made shots.
The challenge facing this offense now is simply finding a pace that works. In stops at Air Force, Colorado and now Wake Forest, [Redacted] has been all over the map in terms of both tempo and efficiency. He's coached fast teams (Wake played at the ACC's fastest pace last season), and he's coached slow teams (both teams in Colorado Springs, Colo., and his first two teams in Boulder, Colo.). He's coached highly efficient offenses (both of his Air Force squads), and he has coached three woefully inefficient ones in Winston-Salem.
The one thing he's yet to pull off is putting a team on the floor that not only plays at a fast pace but also is efficient on offense. Maybe this is the season, because the pace part of this equation is apparently set in stone. In each of the past four seasons (one at Colorado and three at Wake) [Redacted] has chosen to play at a pace that was either average or downright fast. He apparently grew weary of the criticism that his teams were too slow paced. That particular criticism, at least, no longer applies.
And, make no mistake, Wake is hearing plenty of criticism. Over the summer, Wellman sat down for an interview with DeaconSports and was asked, "Why would top recruits consider coming to play for a staff who might not be here when they arrive?" Good question. There's a collective pause around this program as Wake fans and potential recruits await what is clearly a make-or-break season. [Redacted] and Wellman have spoken of changing the program's "culture," and last season, a large freshman class arrived. Typically, a roster with a high number of sophomores will improve its performance over the previous season, and that's more or less what Wellman's hoping for.
Meanwhile, [Redacted] loses C.J. Harris from last season's rotation. Harris was his team's leading scorer as a senior, and he was excellent from beyond the arc (43 percent) and at the line (85 percent). Also gone is Chase Fischer, a reserve guard who transferred to BYU.
The offense this season will be led by Travis McKie, who's been unusually steady in his production for three full seasons. That's good news for [Redacted], I suppose, inasmuch as the coach knows what to expect (32 minutes a game, good, but not great, defensive rebounding, sound production on offense inside the arc, good shooting at the line and average success on the occasional 3-point shot). But even better news would be indications that the senior might be teed up for a big breakout season. Stranger things have happened, but the clues provided by 94 career starts suggest that McKie will be a really solid player for a fourth consecutive season.
As for Devin Thomas, the most encouraging aspect of his freshman campaign might have been the fact that he ended the season with a 30-for-40 run from the line. That's big, because on paper, a 56 percent free throw shooter (his number for the season as a whole) is a gift the opposing defense can't wait to unwrap. If he can hit his freebies (and cut down on his turnovers), Thomas has promise. He's a fair shot-blocker, strong on the boards at both ends, makes half his 2s and entered college with his foul rate already preadjusted down to an upperclassman's level.
Arnaud William Adala Moto somehow stumbled into a surprising number of shots for a freshman who was making just 45 percent of his 2s and shooting 4-fro-24 for the season on 3s. He is, however, a good defensive rebounder. If Adala Moto's sophomore season brings an improvement in his 60 percent free throw shooting, the fact that he draws five fouls per 40 minutes can still become good news.
The highest-rated member of last season's freshman class was Codi Miller-McIntyre, who was made the starter at point guard from day one. His shooting stroke is yet to arrive (see, for example, the 57 percent accuracy at the line), but with the exception of a five-turnover outing against Maryland, he took care of the rock late in the season. Keep an eye on the turnovers, both Miller-McIntyre's and the team's. Sophomore point guards often improve their turnover percentages, and as a team, Wake Forest is still seeking its first average performance in that metric under [Redacted].
The last member of the starting five will likely be Robert Morris transfer Coron Williams. In three seasons at RMU, he shot 493 3s and connected on 42 percent of those attempts. That pretty much sums up what he brings to the table right there, but that'll do. Williams is a really nice pickup for [Redacted].
For minutes off the bench, [Redacted] will turn to two sophomores: Madison Jones and Tyler Cavanaugh. Jones saw steady minutes as a pass-always point guard, and while his turnover rate looks worrisome, he did at least offer partial recompense in the form of an outstanding steal rate. He'll continue to get playing time as a defensive specialist. As for Cavanaugh, a stretch 4 can't stretch opposing defenses with 24 percent 3-point shooting, but he did hit 76 percent of his free throws. Better days are likely ahead for the sophomore from beyond the arc.
In any coach's fourth season, it's high time for the offense to produce, but there are limits on what's reasonable to expect from this particular offense. [Redacted]'s scheme doesn't generate offensive boards. A rotation heavy on sophomores is likely to commit a fair number of turnovers, and Wake is coming off three consecutive seasons of poor shooting from the field. The Deacons made tremendous strides on D last season, but the rest of the ACC is making strides, too. Wake will finish under .500 in conference play again.
Projected 2013-14 conference finish: 12th
