Ball State Deac
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- Mar 15, 2011
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How does the man get to this spot:
Intrade still gives Romney a 25% chance of winning and Nate Silver a 15% chance. So it's still possible. He needs some combination of good Pub turnout/bad Dem turnout, more economic bad news, better debate performances than Obama, Europe implosion and/or Obama stubbing his toe abroad.
In terms of states, he must win FL & NC. That gets him to 235 - just needs 34 > EVs. Get VA, IA, CO & NV and that gives him 269, which throws it to the current House giving him the victory. Which also means he should not forget about Omaha. Right now he's still within 5% points in all of those states. He needs to spend less time fundraising and more time on the ground in each of these states. Trouble is he has been slipping in the polls ever since his 47% comment and his 2 day defense thereof, which is why Nate and Intrade have downgraded him.
I think the best chance Romney has is if he plays up the failures of Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve. Obama will win this election because of his wider appeal. It's unfortunate that the Republicans didn't give their star candidate a shot (Ron Paul).
It would be nice if the campaign got back to ideas, policies and Obama's record, instead of what Romney says at fund raisers.
Romney just needs to look the American people in the eyes tomorrow and say, "If you're happy with 8% unemployment, a brand new trillion dollars in debt each year an administration that won't tell you the truth about what's happening overseas and four more years of blame and excuses in place of results, vote for him. If you think we can do better, I'm your guy." He needs to cut the clutter and run against Obama's failed record. I would (be the first to) hold candidate Obama to his promise to cut the debt in half. Anyone dumb enough to re-elect a guy who was $8 trillion dollars off deserves what s/he gets.
Basically, Romney needs to quit running against OFA/MSM caricature of Mitt Romney; and start running against Obama.
Wow. Just wow.
Was that too much logic in one post?