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Free Throw Impact In ACC Games' Outcomes

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oldmandeac

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I was intrigued by the discussion of the Miami coach about the number of FT's the Deacons averaged per game (something like 28 was his stat). So, I decided to look at the correlation of the FT difference to the outcome of Wake's ACC games:

Louisville, -7 from the FT, Wake L by 8
Duke, -13 from the FT, Wake L by 16
VaTech, -17 from the FT, Wake L by 2
UNC, -12 from the FT, Wake L by 15
Miami, -13 from the FT, Wake L by 14

In those 5 games, Wake hit the same number of 2 pt shots as Duke, Va Tech and UNC, but Duke and UNC hit one additional 3 pt and Va Tech 5. Wake made one more 2 point shot than Miami, but Miami had one more 3 pointer made. Louisville had two more 2 pt buckets, Wake 1 more 3 pt. bucket.

So, from the field we are no more than 1 to 3 points worse in those 5 games, but the points from the FT line determined the outcome.

Conversely, against, NCS, +13 from the FT, Wake W by 3. In this game, the extra points from the line offset the extra 5 baskets NCS made.

Syracuse is the exception, Wake was +8 from the FT but demolished in both 2 and 3 PT buckets made ( 6 and 8, respectively).

As you might expect, earlier in the season, Wake was positive on the FT made statistic (except for the IU game which we won).

Maybe it is obvious, but the FT battle determines the outcome of many games...
 
Conference only stats, we are ass:

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edit: Seriously what's up with imgur. Pic is of our last place shitty under 60% FT shooting.
 
It is pretty remarkable from a statistical POV how precipitously our FT shooting % has fallen since conference play started. Is it simply the pressure of playing in the toughest conference in the nation and "wanting" it too bad or were they just lucky to have been shooting over 70% through 12 games?

Throwing out the first 3 games against "mid-level" competition in which the team shot 69.3% from the line -- although poor FT shooting probably cost them a chance to beat Richmond -- the Deacs strung together 8 fairly good FT shooting performances. However, I guess the signs were there (50% vs IU, 54.5% vs CC) that they were shooting above their potential and would regress to the mean so to speak. But this regression is quite startling, to wit:

IU thru LSU -- 177 of 251 for 70.5% in which they averaged 27.9 FT attempts per game and FTs made up 25.5% of their point total for that 9 game span

LOU thru UM -- 94 of 158 for 59.5% in which they averaged just 22.6 FT att per game and made up just 19.4% of their points over that 7 game stretch

Obviously the quality of the defenses they face in ACC play are much better overall and it is tougher to get to the line as much as they were in non-conference play. But is there a correlation between the big drop in attempts and resulting percentage and the return of CMM? Are guys being less aggressive attacking the rim now that Codi is being counted on more for offense? Is Devin getting fewer good touches inside (probably so) or turning it over more due to trying to do too much because more of the onus is on him and Codi? Hudson certainly has played much worse since the return of CMM and Crawford doesn't seem to get to the rim and FT line as much.

Obviously the quality of competition is much better and it is tougher to score. However, on average, the number of possessions to score hasn't dropped. Even with the Cuse game factored in, FG attempts are still in the 58.5 per game range. And they were only averaging 58.2 as of the end of non-conference play. Is the team simply playing tighter because it's ACC play? Or are the defenses they are facing that much better than even UCLA, Xavier and LSU? Of course, we know how lucky we were to win some of those games and perhaps we faced a lopsided number of poor defensive teams (IU, Arky, Bucknell and UR) earlier in the year. Unfortunately, I think coaching inexperience may factor in even more as the opposing coaches are so much better at game planning for your weaknesses and exploiting them. We don't always seem to have a clear plan of attack against ACC teams, but again that may be a byproduct of playing better teams with better player leadership and better coaches.
 
Louisville, -7 from the FT, Wake L by 8
Duke, -13 from the FT, Wake L by 16
VaTech, -17 from the FT, Wake L by 2
UNC, -12 from the FT, Wake L by 15
Miami, -13 from the FT, Wake L by 14
Click to expand...

Good to know if we shot 100% from the line these 5 games AND everything still fell exactly the same way, we still would have lost 4 of 5.
 
Remember we had a chance to tie that Louisville game was like 2 minutes left and Dinos missed the front end of a one and one
 
Yeah, the L'ville and Tech games are the only two games in which FT shooting could have really made a difference in the outcome.

More troubling is our propensity to turn the ball over and give the other team more opportunities than necessary against our suspect to shoddy D. In the first three ACC contests, we only averaged 10.3 TO per game and seemed to be in each game until the last 5-6 mins vs Duke. Not surprisingly we averaged 61.3 FG attempts per game in those contests -- even in that regard with the same number of FGA for those games -- with only a 3 TO disparity overall.

However, over the last 4 games, we've seen the Deacs turn it over at an alarmingly bad rate with an average of 17.25 per game, thus giving the other team way too many extra opportunities on the other end. Despite being even in FGA with VPI, they have spotted Cuse, UNC and Miami 31 more FG attempts resulting in a comfortable margin of victory for each of their 3 adversaries.

Not really sure if we would have won any more games had they kept the TOs down around 10 per game, but certainly would have been in better shape against Carolina after one half and been in it longer versus Miami with a chance to win perhaps?
 
Although a small sample size, I imagine not many realize Doral is our best FT shooter at 80%. Let the boy play.
 
TownieDeac said:
Good to know if we shot 100% from the line these 5 games AND everything still fell exactly the same way, we still would have lost 4 of 5.
Click to expand...

Not necessarily. If we had made the free throws the games would have been much closer late in the game and then you never know what might have happened.
 
ChrisL68 said:
Remember we had a chance to tie that Louisville game was like 2 minutes left and Dinos missed the front end of a one and one
Click to expand...

And didn't Crawford get fouled on a 3 point attempt somewhere in there and miss all 3? Not normally like him as I think he is our best at the line, but very critical at that time anyway.
 
Of our bottom six games in free throw rate (free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts) we've lost five of those six games but not the lowest free throw rate game (Indiana). The other five games are all games against conference teams. Syracuse is the highest rate of the season and also a loss.

In fact the free throw rate is pretty low in most conference games compared to the rest of the year which means that there's likely something going on: fewer fouls being called by the refs in conference play (potentially likely given that fouls called generally decrease as the season goes on based on recent trends AND even more likely since there was an emphasis on more fouls and freedom of movement in the offseason, but refs probably have backed off that a bit - consistency has been an issue on this front for sure from officials), playing better teams who are less likely to foul, and a lack of aggressiveness and penetration by our offense.
 
TownieDeac said:
Good to know if we shot 100% from the line these 5 games AND everything still fell exactly the same way, we still would have lost 4 of 5.
Click to expand...

scooter84 said:
Not necessarily. If we had made the free throws the games would have been much closer late in the game and then you never know what might have happened.
Click to expand...

bold part important there
 
daaberry said:
Although a small sample size, I imagine not many realize Doral is our best FT shooter at 80%. Let the boy play.
Click to expand...

Not a lot of talk about it, but his putback on someone's miss - maybe Crawford's - was ridiculous. It was like he went up thinking he'd dunk it, but didn't catch it cleanly and instead kissed it off the glass with touch one-handed. Maybe it was just lucky, but he has so many one-off plays like that - a 10 foot jumper he releases from like 12 feet high or a random flush from nowhere - really think he's going to be a monster for us by his junior year, if not next year. If he can get a little low block jump hook working he could be borderline unstoppable. A couple years from now we're potentially looking at an elite front court with Collins and Moore, plus Mathias for size. Crawford has all the makings of an elite point guard.

This season slipping away sucks, but at no point in maybe the last 6 years have we had the potential to be so strong at 3 of our 5 starting positions.
 
DCDeac said:
Not a lot of talk about it, but his putback on someone's miss - maybe Crawford's - was ridiculous. It was like he went up thinking he'd dunk it, but didn't catch it cleanly and instead kissed it off the glass with touch one-handed. Maybe it was just lucky, but he has so many one-off plays like that - a 10 foot jumper he releases from like 12 feet high or a random flush from nowhere - really think he's going to be a monster for us by his junior year, if not next year. If he can get a little low block jump hook working he could be borderline unstoppable. A couple years from now we're potentially looking at an elite front court with Collins and Moore, plus Mathias for size. Crawford has all the makings of an elite point guard.

This season slipping away sucks, but at no point in maybe the last 6 years have we had the potential to be so strong at 3 of our 5 starting positions.
Click to expand...


Not luck. Pretty apparent in his limited time that Moore has the best touch for a big man we have seen in some time. Don't understand why he isn't getting more minutes.
 
I don't even think Moore has the best touch of big men in his class at Wake. But I do agree both Collins and Moore have a ton of potential and have been solid as freshmen in their time on the court.
 
Moore should be getting more playing time, but the reasoning behind it being that he shoots 80% from the FT line is one of the funnier things I've read in a while.
 
Crawford has the worst case of "lemon booty" I've ever seen.
 
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