Friday Jobs Report

[84Deac]

Due to a change in methodology by ADP for estimating private sector job creation it looks like there has been a drastic revision for September, which might mean that the October number may fall well below expectations as well. http://www.ogboards.com/forums/newthread.php?do=newthread&f=12

How much will a bad jobs report on Friday sway last-minute voters? It almost seems like Axelrod is expecting a bad report. http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/29/axelrod-downplays-political-impact-of-pending-jobs-report/

 

[ArlingtonDeac]

The last job report had less polling impact that was expected. I imagine the next one will also have less impact than people think, whichever way it goes. How many undecideds will be left on Friday? (Seriously, who are those people?)

The guy ahead always wants to downplay any unknown variable.

Also, Friday is the least impactful day of the news cycle.

 

[seventwofour]

I have a hard time imagining that there exist people who are planning to go to the polls and vote for Obama unless the jobs report falls below their expectations, in which case they will vote for Romney. Maybe vote or no-vote, but the whole notion of an undecided voter is purely a creation of the media.

 

[Deacfreak07]

The last job report had less polling impact that was expected. I imagine the next one will also have less impact than people think, whichever way it goes. How many undecideds will be left on Friday? (Seriously, who are those people?)

The guy ahead always wants to downplay any unknown variable.

If it's bad, Fox News will be very quick to validate the same report that was fishy a month ago.

 

[Wrangor]

I don't think the jobs report will change the mind of an undecided bit I do think it can provide so energy to one of the campaigns. If the report comes out under 8 I imagine that Obamas supporters will be that much more excited as they have a talking point to reassure themselves. If the report comes out 8 or above then that will provide more energy/motivation to Romney supporters to get the vote out.

 

[ArlingtonDeac]

http://www.money.cnn.com/2012/10/31/news/economy/jobs-report-expectation/index.html?iid=HP_LN

The two report predictions in the article:

Reaser is expecting job gains of 105,000 and a slight rise in unemployment, to 7.9%.
Guatieri ... predicts 130,000 jobs added in October, and a 7.9% unemployment rate.

Also, Wrangor, IMO neither side is going to have an enthusiasm problem this week. Both bases really dislike the other side's candidate. I don't see a low turnout year by any stretch.

 

[DeacHawk]

I don't think the jobs report will change the mind of an undecided bit I do think it can provide so energy to one of the campaigns. If the report comes out under 8 I imagine that Obamas supporters will be that much more excited as they have a talking point to reassure themselves. If the report comes out 8 or above then that will provide more energy/motivation to Romney supporters to get the vote out.

and if it's under 8 Republicans will accuse the BLS of cooking the numbers to get Obama elected

 

[ArlingtonDeac]

Unless the unemployment number moves to like 8.5+ or sub-7.0, nothing will come of it.

If the number drops, Obama will trumpet how the rate is now lower than when he took office, and the GOP will claim it's fixed. If the number rises, the GOP will claim it proves unequivocally that Obama is a disaster, and Obama's camp will simply tout the number of new jobs created that month (likely between 90-120K) and a 45th straight month of positive job creation. Either side can effectively spin this report to a mostly-decided electorate.

You can't really "win" off this report unless something catastrophic or amazing appears, which is very unlikely.

 

[THE DEUCE]

Source: dailycaller?!?