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General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

deacvision7 said:
Trump suggesting a nationwide policy of "stop and frisk" will not help him nationally, I don't believe.
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Not sure about that. But I'm confident these riots will help him. BLM are great for Trump. Hillary is seen as the candidate for BLM/Kaepernick supporters.
 
BobStackFan4Life said:
Not sure about that. But I'm confident these riots will help him. BLM are great for Trump. Hillary is seen as the candidate for BLM/Kaepernick supporters.
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You mean the people that support justice, equality, and freedom of speech? You're probably right.
 
TownieDeac said:
Seems like this violates 4th and 2nd Amendments and also is just incoherent babbling when asked a super straightforward question by a friendly interviewer but here you go

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Trump will try and avoid details on any debate questions, so depends on how much moderators push him to clarify. Was able to name call and avoid details when nine other wannabes were on the stage, but won't be as easy to hide one on one for 90 minutes. Wouldn't be surprised if Hillary tries to cede some of her time on topics where he's particularly flailing.

Trump wants to look presidential, so he'll have to avoid blatent personal attacks. OTOH, he'll get caught up with limited knowledge on multiple issues and his default position will be to lash out at Hillary and moderators.
 
dot com said:
You mean the people that support justice, equality, and freedom of speech? You're probably right.
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You mean these people? I've noticed how common irrational violence often seems to result from BLM protests. Plenty of protest groups that keep it peaceful but for whatever reason BLM often descend into stupidity, ignorance, and savagery.
 
Townie, when you neg me, it would be nice if you would leave a comment so I could at least know what specifically triggered you. Thanks.
 
Trump's Black support is 6% nationally. Between 1968 and 2004, GOP got roughly 15% of Black votes. Trump's polling at 2% in OH and 3% in PA. Needs to move those numbers up, especially in PA. Doesn't matter what his % is in MS or AL. Don't see how embracing stop and frisk and reminding people about the birthers helps him with Black voters in FL, PA, OH, or NC. Similar to HRC's deplorables comment, just acts as a GOTV driver for already hostile voting blocs.
 
Violence and thuggishness is never the answer.

That said, we have a police issue in this country. There is too much acceptance of police officers fabricating charges and making up stories to protect themselves. The black community is highly skeptical of the police and with good reason. Until there is real accountability and not a culture of protection, this will continue to be an issue.
Law and order applies to everybody, including police officers.

And Donald Trump's solution, which is more authoritarian police overreach, is as bad as most of his ideas.
 
TownieDeac said:
Take an educated guess.
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You're such a fucking cuck you support the racist savages in that video who stripped, beat, and dragged someone around a parking garage because of the color of their skin, all the while laughing as they did so?
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Trump's Black support is 6% nationally. Between 1968 and 2004, GOP got roughly 15% of Black votes. Trump's polling at 2% in OH and 3% in PA. Needs to move those numbers up, especially in PA. Doesn't matter what his % is in MS or AL. Don't see how embracing stop and frisk and reminding people about the birthers helps him with Black voters in FL, PA, OH, or NC. Similar to HRC's deplorables comment, just acts as a GOTV driver for already hostile voting blocs.
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I've seen him polling as high as 23% among black people.
 
BobStackFan4Life said:
You're such a fucking cuck you support the racist savages in that video who stripped, beat, and dragged someone around a parking garage because of the color of their skin, all the while laughing as they did so?
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Definitely doesn't visit alt right or The_Donald type subreddits though!
 
ChrisL68 said:
The LA times poll. Should provide you a clue about the quality of the poll.
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I seem to recall Rasmussen also had his support pretty high. There seems to have been a significant uptick of black people getting onboard the Trump Train in the past 10 days or so.
 
ChrisL68 said:
The LA times poll. Should provide you a clue about the quality of the poll.
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Also this is an article directly from the LA Times on the issue:

A few days ago, Donald Trump's support among African American voters in the USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak tracking poll of the election appeared to shoot upward.

Since early summer, when the poll started, Trump's support among black voters had been in the low single digits in the poll, as it is in most surveys. Suddenly, he seemed to be nearing 20%.

Some of Trump's supporters cheered and began developing theories for why their candidate had finally started breaking through to black audiences. Outraged liberal critics of the poll denounced it anew.

And then, just as quickly as the line on the chart had turned upward, it turned back down. As of Wednesday, Trump's black support in the poll is back to the single digits, near where it had been all along.

What happened is an object lesson in how not to read polls, particularly a daily tracking poll such as the Daybreak survey.

All polls are subject to random statistical noise. Tracking polls, because they take a sample every day, are particularly likely to jump around for no reason other than chance. That's especially true with a small sub-group like African Americans, who make up about one-eighth of the electorate.

The change in Trump's support was always well within the poll's margin of error for black voters, meaning there was a good likelihood that what appeared to be a shift was just random. Now that the level of support has returned to where it was, that seems likely to have been what happened.

The lesson for poll watchers: Be wary of short-term fluctuations, particularly those involving subgroups. Take margins of error seriously. And don't leap to conclusions until the evidence is solid.
 
BobStackFan4Life said:
You're such a fucking cuck you support the racist savages in that video who stripped, beat, and dragged someone around a parking garage because of the color of their skin, all the while laughing as they did so?
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Cuck, huh? You are so alt-right trendy! I bet you've made some great new friends!
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Nationally? Which states? I've seen 0% and as high as 8%, but there aren't multiple polls anywhere near 20%.
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I saw this post on reddit from a couple weeks ago:
Recent Emerson College state polls show Trump getting 15% of the black vote in Virginia, 15% in New jersey, and 16% in North Carolina.
Boston Herald poll shows Trump with 19% of the black vote, up from 10% in previous poll in July.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump at 14% of the black vote, up from 3% 2 weeks ago.
The PPD Daily Tracking Poll shows Trump at 11% of the black vote, up from 8% about a week ago when they frist started reporting the detailed demographic breakdown.
Yesterday's CNN Poll shows Trump with 17% of the non-white vote which is up from 7% in the previous CNN poll a month ago.
Last week's Rasmussen poll showed Trump with 24% of the black vote.
 
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