Survey Monkey poll:
Hillary-42
Trump-38
Johnson-9
Stein-5
5% nationally seems high for Stein, but still unlikely enough to cost HRC any blue states. Stein gets hurt if Warren, Brown, and Bernie strongly support Hillary. Bernie's the lone holdout. Stein won't be anywhere close to 5% in swing states.
Johnson's number seems about right and likely has an effect in swing states (NM, CO, NV, IA, NH). Could create some unexpected surprises in AZ, IN, and MO. GA and UT are likely a bridge too far. Even if Trump sweeps all those states, would still have to spend resources in states that should be slam dunks for the GOP.
If those numbers remain stable, Dems will make big pushes in AZ (coming attractions, McCain) and MO (relatively weak GOP Senator). GOP's fucked in the West, and purple MO and/or IN make a bad EC map worse.
1992:
Bubba-43% (370 EVs)
Bush-37% (168 EVs)
Perot-19%