Frosty
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Wake Forest needs to hire Pat Chambers as its next basketball coach. There are a number of reasons why this hire makes sense, which I will outline here.
First, let’s address the top candidates that are being passed around these here OGBoards.
Nate Oats, while an impressive candidate, is not coming here. Period. First, he’s likely going to be picked off for a top job this offseason. I fully expect him to take either the Syracuse job, if it opens, or another P5 job that opens when the carousel is spinning at full tilt. I think Boeheim is done after this year and Oats goes to Syracuse. Now, you might be saying to yourself, “Hey, Frosty, Syracuse is a second-rate, shithole city, why would Oats go there?”. You’re right that Syracuse is a trash heap. That’s not up for debate. However, Oats just built his $1 million dream lake house in upstate New York. I don’t know how many of you have gone through the process of designing your $1 million dream lake house before, but I can assure you that it is an intensive endeavor that you only want to do once. You might also be saying, “But Frosty, Oats lake house is 2.5 hours away from Syracuse.” I say so what? When Cuse is paying him $4 million a year his family can stay at the lake and he can spend the season in Syracuse. When you’re making that much money you don’t need to worry about doing the driving yourself. I hate to say this, but the time to hire Oats was in 2010 when he was coaching Romulus. Coincidentally, I was working in Detroit at this time and got to see Oats’ teams play and everyone knew he would be a success. His HS teams performed at a crazy high level that rarely exists among high school teams.
Wojo was never coming to Wake. He’s setting himself up to take over for K and won’t do anything to rock that boat, which is wise. Coaching Wake doesn’t fit into this trajectory.
Unfortunately, the ship has sailed on Wes Miller. I think DR is right about this. He will be picked up by UNC when Roy retires or possibly even Duke if they can’t land Wojo or State if Keats doesn’t work out. I’m starting to come around to the idea that we might have missed the boat here. Personally, I’ve bucketed Wes into the “reach” category. I think we would be lucky to get him at this point. In a weird way, him taking the Wake job would be a red flag for me since I think he can do better and settling for Wake, as opposed to holding out, tells me something is wrong in Greensboro.
Yes, I know Russell Turner was an assistant at Wake. Yes, I know Russell Turner coached Duncan. Russell Turner, however, is too low energy and has been living on the West Coast since 2000. How many ACC games do you think he’s watched in the past 19 years, let alone Wake games? Pass.
Kelsey is an interesting choice and I think we could convince him, but the AD is too stupid to offer and probably doesn’t even know who he is, despite him being on the Wake payroll for 5 years. While I like Kelsey, there might be too much baggage, personally, for him to take the Wake job given how things ended with Dino.
Thad Matta is a proven winner with experience at small private schools (i.e., Butler and Xavier) and has made two Final Fours at Ohio State. Everything seems great on paper, but when you weigh in his fucked up back and the fact that OSU is paying him to chill I don’t see him moving for the Wake gig. Don’t be surprised to see his name in the mix and even for him to interview for the opening, but this will only be to keep the OSU checks coming.
Even if all of these candidates were realistic options, I still believe that Pat Chambers is the best choice for Wake Forest now. Here is why:
Age: Chambers is 48. I know it’s easy to look guys like Miller, Kelsey, and Oats and give them more of an edge here, but 48 is not old for a HC. We’re talking about a guy who could conceivably coach at Wake for 20+ years still, which checks the same box as the others. Point is, this is a non-issue for Chambers.
Coaching Pedigree and Wake-Like Experience: Chambers has previously served as the associate head coach under Jay Wright at Villanova. No one will disagree that Jay Wright knows how to coach, so Chambers has spent time learning under one the best in the business. He went on to coach at BU, another private university, so he certainly knows how to navigate the private school waters. He has been mentored by the best, did well enough to be promoted to associate HC in this setting, and knows what would go into coaching in an environment like Wake. Of the other realistic candidates. Oats and Miller do not have this experience or pedigree. High Point and Elon don’t count for Wes. Being an assistant there is not on the same level of working at Duke, Wake, Villanova, Xavier, or Butler when considering peer institutions in basketball.
Regional Recruiting Ties: I think we get too caught up on being able to recruit NC and the Southeast in general. This isn’t the path for Wake to reestablish relevance. I would actually argue that Miller and Kelsey would be more likely to focus on recruiting locally, which would be to Wake’s detriment at the start. Realistically, we’re going to struggle to beat out Duke, UNC, and State for top NC talent and there will be some overlap between the next HC and Roy and K. I believe that the best recruiting strategy moving forward is to establish a pipeline from somewhere else to reinvigorate the program and be primed to fill the recruiting vacuum left by the imminent departures of K and Roy. Chambers will do this. We will be positioned to swoop in on the top local recruits AND also have a northeast pipeline in place. Think about this. Where is Penn State’s footprint? PA, NJ, and NY, all of which produce substantial basketball talent. Chambers has already proven to recruit Philly very well and it’s clear he knows this circuit. Now, Oats recruits around here well, but, as I’ve established, he’s going to Syracuse. You might be saying, “Frosty, you dolt, Oats will just beat Chambers out for these recruits.” You’re wrong. We’ve already established that Syracuse is a dump and everyone with any sense wants to move out of the NY/NJ/Philly area anyway, so Wake is a superior choice. The program of Boeheim will be dead as it becomes the next UConn (minus the random natty), so Pat will be fine.
Continuous Improvement: Chambers has continuously improved the quality of his teams, which is an impressive feat for coaching at Penn State. I’m not going to run through the year-by-year rankings, but his teams have improved over time. Last year, his Nittany Lions finished at #19 in KP. No other coach mentioned here, with the exception of Matta, have even sniffed this. Wojo and Oats are close this year (currently #24 and #20, respectively), but let’s see where they finish the season. PSU currently sits at #47 in KP, which, historically, is still impressive for them. What can’t be lost in this is that Chambers led PSU to a #19 KP finish last year. At Penn State. Penn State. Let that sink in.
Money: Chambers’ current salary is $900k, so we wouldn’t need to break the bank for him. Of the other candidates, Matta, Oats, and Wojo will be EXPENSIVE, but not likely anyway for the reasons previously stated. I think Miller will get some more attention this off season, which will drive his price up some. Kelsey probably has a nice buyout on his contract after the UMass stunt, which would almost necessitate over paying for a coach from Winthrop. Turner bores me, so whatever. We’d likely be the first, and only, to the market for Chambers, so a slight raise and an opportunity to coach in the ACC should be all it takes. We missed our window with Miller, Kelsey, and Oats. Let’s not miss it again with Chambers. There are some morons in the PSU community who want him fired, despite a top-20 KP finish last season and being in the top-50 this year. If these donks make it happen we could be talking about bargain basement prices to land Coach Chambers.
Ultimately, I don’t expect the AD to do what is right and hire Coach Chambers because they are low-IQ cowards. You can laugh at this now, but let’s compare in four years when our next coach isn’t working out…again.
First, let’s address the top candidates that are being passed around these here OGBoards.
Nate Oats, while an impressive candidate, is not coming here. Period. First, he’s likely going to be picked off for a top job this offseason. I fully expect him to take either the Syracuse job, if it opens, or another P5 job that opens when the carousel is spinning at full tilt. I think Boeheim is done after this year and Oats goes to Syracuse. Now, you might be saying to yourself, “Hey, Frosty, Syracuse is a second-rate, shithole city, why would Oats go there?”. You’re right that Syracuse is a trash heap. That’s not up for debate. However, Oats just built his $1 million dream lake house in upstate New York. I don’t know how many of you have gone through the process of designing your $1 million dream lake house before, but I can assure you that it is an intensive endeavor that you only want to do once. You might also be saying, “But Frosty, Oats lake house is 2.5 hours away from Syracuse.” I say so what? When Cuse is paying him $4 million a year his family can stay at the lake and he can spend the season in Syracuse. When you’re making that much money you don’t need to worry about doing the driving yourself. I hate to say this, but the time to hire Oats was in 2010 when he was coaching Romulus. Coincidentally, I was working in Detroit at this time and got to see Oats’ teams play and everyone knew he would be a success. His HS teams performed at a crazy high level that rarely exists among high school teams.
Wojo was never coming to Wake. He’s setting himself up to take over for K and won’t do anything to rock that boat, which is wise. Coaching Wake doesn’t fit into this trajectory.
Unfortunately, the ship has sailed on Wes Miller. I think DR is right about this. He will be picked up by UNC when Roy retires or possibly even Duke if they can’t land Wojo or State if Keats doesn’t work out. I’m starting to come around to the idea that we might have missed the boat here. Personally, I’ve bucketed Wes into the “reach” category. I think we would be lucky to get him at this point. In a weird way, him taking the Wake job would be a red flag for me since I think he can do better and settling for Wake, as opposed to holding out, tells me something is wrong in Greensboro.
Yes, I know Russell Turner was an assistant at Wake. Yes, I know Russell Turner coached Duncan. Russell Turner, however, is too low energy and has been living on the West Coast since 2000. How many ACC games do you think he’s watched in the past 19 years, let alone Wake games? Pass.
Kelsey is an interesting choice and I think we could convince him, but the AD is too stupid to offer and probably doesn’t even know who he is, despite him being on the Wake payroll for 5 years. While I like Kelsey, there might be too much baggage, personally, for him to take the Wake job given how things ended with Dino.
Thad Matta is a proven winner with experience at small private schools (i.e., Butler and Xavier) and has made two Final Fours at Ohio State. Everything seems great on paper, but when you weigh in his fucked up back and the fact that OSU is paying him to chill I don’t see him moving for the Wake gig. Don’t be surprised to see his name in the mix and even for him to interview for the opening, but this will only be to keep the OSU checks coming.
Even if all of these candidates were realistic options, I still believe that Pat Chambers is the best choice for Wake Forest now. Here is why:
Age: Chambers is 48. I know it’s easy to look guys like Miller, Kelsey, and Oats and give them more of an edge here, but 48 is not old for a HC. We’re talking about a guy who could conceivably coach at Wake for 20+ years still, which checks the same box as the others. Point is, this is a non-issue for Chambers.
Coaching Pedigree and Wake-Like Experience: Chambers has previously served as the associate head coach under Jay Wright at Villanova. No one will disagree that Jay Wright knows how to coach, so Chambers has spent time learning under one the best in the business. He went on to coach at BU, another private university, so he certainly knows how to navigate the private school waters. He has been mentored by the best, did well enough to be promoted to associate HC in this setting, and knows what would go into coaching in an environment like Wake. Of the other realistic candidates. Oats and Miller do not have this experience or pedigree. High Point and Elon don’t count for Wes. Being an assistant there is not on the same level of working at Duke, Wake, Villanova, Xavier, or Butler when considering peer institutions in basketball.
Regional Recruiting Ties: I think we get too caught up on being able to recruit NC and the Southeast in general. This isn’t the path for Wake to reestablish relevance. I would actually argue that Miller and Kelsey would be more likely to focus on recruiting locally, which would be to Wake’s detriment at the start. Realistically, we’re going to struggle to beat out Duke, UNC, and State for top NC talent and there will be some overlap between the next HC and Roy and K. I believe that the best recruiting strategy moving forward is to establish a pipeline from somewhere else to reinvigorate the program and be primed to fill the recruiting vacuum left by the imminent departures of K and Roy. Chambers will do this. We will be positioned to swoop in on the top local recruits AND also have a northeast pipeline in place. Think about this. Where is Penn State’s footprint? PA, NJ, and NY, all of which produce substantial basketball talent. Chambers has already proven to recruit Philly very well and it’s clear he knows this circuit. Now, Oats recruits around here well, but, as I’ve established, he’s going to Syracuse. You might be saying, “Frosty, you dolt, Oats will just beat Chambers out for these recruits.” You’re wrong. We’ve already established that Syracuse is a dump and everyone with any sense wants to move out of the NY/NJ/Philly area anyway, so Wake is a superior choice. The program of Boeheim will be dead as it becomes the next UConn (minus the random natty), so Pat will be fine.
Continuous Improvement: Chambers has continuously improved the quality of his teams, which is an impressive feat for coaching at Penn State. I’m not going to run through the year-by-year rankings, but his teams have improved over time. Last year, his Nittany Lions finished at #19 in KP. No other coach mentioned here, with the exception of Matta, have even sniffed this. Wojo and Oats are close this year (currently #24 and #20, respectively), but let’s see where they finish the season. PSU currently sits at #47 in KP, which, historically, is still impressive for them. What can’t be lost in this is that Chambers led PSU to a #19 KP finish last year. At Penn State. Penn State. Let that sink in.
Money: Chambers’ current salary is $900k, so we wouldn’t need to break the bank for him. Of the other candidates, Matta, Oats, and Wojo will be EXPENSIVE, but not likely anyway for the reasons previously stated. I think Miller will get some more attention this off season, which will drive his price up some. Kelsey probably has a nice buyout on his contract after the UMass stunt, which would almost necessitate over paying for a coach from Winthrop. Turner bores me, so whatever. We’d likely be the first, and only, to the market for Chambers, so a slight raise and an opportunity to coach in the ACC should be all it takes. We missed our window with Miller, Kelsey, and Oats. Let’s not miss it again with Chambers. There are some morons in the PSU community who want him fired, despite a top-20 KP finish last season and being in the top-50 this year. If these donks make it happen we could be talking about bargain basement prices to land Coach Chambers.
Ultimately, I don’t expect the AD to do what is right and hire Coach Chambers because they are low-IQ cowards. You can laugh at this now, but let’s compare in four years when our next coach isn’t working out…again.
