1. Polls consistently show very low voter enthusiasm among black voters, and even if Obama retains 93% of that voting block, it will be a much smaller block.
2. Same with Hispanics. Polls consistently show dropoff of voter registration among Hispanics in the battleground states, and low voter turnout.
3. Zero enthusiasm in the youth (under 30) age group, and Romney has made inroads around 45% of the youth vote that will turnout.
4. The female vote is not a block. Romney leads substantially among married women, and Obama leads among single women. And as you know but aren't saying, Obama had 13% advantage in female vote in 2008, so lowering that to a 10 point advantage would be huge for Romney.
5. Obama has written off the white male vote long ago and is underwater on the white male voters. White voters are around 77% of the electorate, and with the shrinking of the black and Hispanic voter blocks could easily get to 79 or 80%.
Back to the drawing board please.
