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Jobless rate falls to 8.6%.. wait, what?

Liquid Karma said:
Agreed.

It's entirely possible the ship is slowing starting to turn around. The economic effects of the tsunami in Japan and unrest in the middle east appear to be stabilized now. If Europe can get their act together we might see some positive momentum to carry for a few months.

I still think we need to see more job creation happening, but any good news is a step in the right direction.
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+1
 
I am sure there is a holiday bump, however if this is the lowest that it has been since the middle of 2009, then that means that our rate has fallen lower than the holiday bumps received in 09 and 10. Like others, I am cautiously optimistic with numbers like this. It is easy for these numbers to be manipulated either way. Hopefully this is accurate, I don't think anyone would disagree with that.
 
It'll also be interesting to see how Congress acts in terms of extending unemployment insurance to the 99 weekers before it adjourns for Christmas.
 
Wrangor said:
I am sure there is a holiday bump, however if this is the lowest that it has been since the middle of 2009, then that means that our rate has fallen lower than the holiday bumps received in 09 and 10. Like others, I am cautiously optimistic with numbers like this. It is easy for these numbers to be manipulated either way. Hopefully this is accurate, I don't think anyone would disagree with that.
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My worry, based on what I've read, is that a lot of folks have just given up on looking. With new monthly claims still high, we're only "gaining ground" because people who were actively seeking employment in 09 and 10 are just saying "screw it, we'll live on one income" or have finally reached the point that they are willing to be underemployed rather than keep searching for a job they'd prefer. The folks in the 2nd group may have tapped out their unemployment, leaving them no choice but to be underemployed rather than unemployed...better than nothing, but not a long term recovery solution.
 
I know the unemployment compensation numbers are seasonally adjusted, not sure about the actual unemployment rate.

As far as these numbers, the are ok. The fact we have been able to lower the unemployment rate while hemorrhaging state and local government jobs is a pretty good sign.

I agree that 8% may be the magic number come next November.
 
RacerDeac said:
My worry, based on what I've read, is that a lot of folks have just given up on looking. With new monthly claims still high, we're only "gaining ground" because people who were actively seeking employment in 09 and 10 are just saying "screw it, we'll live on one income" or have finally reached the point that they are willing to be underemployed rather than keep searching for a job they'd prefer. The folks in the 2nd group may have tapped out their unemployment, leaving them no choice but to be underemployed rather than unemployed...better than nothing, but not a long term recovery solution.
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Underemployment is a given for the next 10 years not a possibility. We have to come up with a different economic job structure. American manufacturing in the traditional sense will never return to the 50's, so we must come up with something new if we ever hope to return to proper employment levels.
 
Yep. As I've posted before, the problem for the federal government isn't how to spur private sector job creation. The problem is how to prevent the misuse of human capital in down economic times.
 
It's an extremely small improvement:

CNBC Report

I'd read the entire article before breaking out the pom poms.
 
Oh, and regardless it will be revised upward next month and not reported.
 
The unemployment numbers are bullshit. That number probably has as much to do with people falling off the unemployment count (because they have been unemployed for so long that they are considered not to still be looking for a job) as it does with any positive development.
 
DuncanDeac said:
The unemployment numbers are bullshit. That number probably has as much to do with people falling off the unemployment count (because they have been unemployed for so long that they are considered not to still be looking for a job) as it does with any positive development.
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Where the hell have you been?
 
Liquid Karma said:
4) Do seasonal jobs count in the unemployment stats? Obviously they are counted in the jobs created stats. So we can expect a drop in jobs created early next year, but would we also see a spike in unemployment as seasonal employees are dropped from payrolls again?
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FWIW, CBS showed a graphic that showed in the largest gains in employment occurred in the first few months of 2011.

September and October numbers have also been adjusted up. If that trend continues, and twice as many people stop looking as ones who actually get jobs, that number could creep towards 8.0% by next November. As mentioned, though, that number doesn't really mean very much since it doesn't count those who stopped looking. I mean, theoretically, if everyone stopped looking we could have 0.0% unemployment, right?
 
Deadbolt said:
FWIW, CBS showed a graphic that showed in the largest gains in employment occurred in the first few months of 2011.

September and October numbers have also been adjusted up. If that trend continues, and twice as many people stop looking as ones who actually get jobs, that number could creep towards 8.0% by next November. As mentioned, though, that number doesn't really mean very much since it doesn't count those who stopped looking. I mean, theoretically, if everyone stopped looking we could have 0.0% unemployment, right?[/QUOTE]

Based on the current metrics, yes.
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Deadbolt said:
FWIW, CBS showed a graphic that showed in the largest gains in employment occurred in the first few months of 2011.

September and October numbers have also been adjusted up. If that trend continues, and twice as many people stop looking as ones who actually get jobs, that number could creep towards 8.0% by next November. As mentioned, though, that number doesn't really mean very much since it doesn't count those who stopped looking. I mean, theoretically, if everyone stopped looking we could have 0.0% unemployment, right?
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And that's going to be the Republican talking point if unemployment improves: "People have given up looking for jobs because of Obama"
 
PhDeac said:
And that's going to be the Republican talking point if unemployment improves: "People have given up looking for jobs because of Obama"
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It's more complicated than that. The total number of available jobs has changed. So has the number of people actively searching for the remaining jobs. And then you have the people who have settled for lesser jobs.

In short, looking at the jobs numbers is a crapshoot. Growth in GDP is probably a better indicator as far as I'm concerned.
 
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