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Johnson/Weld ticket

RJKarl

RJKarl

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Former MA Governor William Weld has agreed to be Gary Johnson's VP on the Libertarian ticket. Two relatively successful, moderate Republican governors. Is this where #neverTrump goes?

Could this put Indiana and MO in play?
 
Both Johnson and Weld are sharp reasonable guys, but aren't liberal enough for the Bernie Bros. Definitely an option for moderate 'Pubs who hate both Trump and Hillary. Johnson got 1% of the national vote and 4% of the NM vote in 2012. MA won't be in play. NH is the only New England swing state and siphoning off moderate 'Pubs puts it out of reach for Trump. Solidifies the 242 floor for HRC. Add in NV, CO, NM, and NH and Hillary gets to 266. Done deal with just IA (272) let alone VA, OH, FL or longer shots NC, IN, MO, or AZ.

If the race isn't close in CA, will vote for Johnson/Weld. Can't stand either Trump or Hillary, so it's a message to both parties to nominate much better candidates without tipping a state to Trump.
 
Johnson/Weld will get my vote. I like this ticket and think it is strong (for a Libertarian) but will be surprised if it gets more than a few percent at the end of the day.

It seems to me that a lot of the #nevertrump vote comes from the Lindsey Graham hawkish wing of the republicans as opposed to the Libertarian wing. I doubt they will want to vote Gary Johnson either. I could be wrong.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Both Johnson and Weld are sharp reasonable guys, but aren't liberal enough for the Bernie Bros. Definitely an option for moderate 'Pubs who hate both Trump and Hillary. Johnson got 1% of the national vote and 4% of the NM vote in 2012. MA won't be in play. NH is the only New England swing state and siphoning off moderate 'Pubs puts it out of reach for Trump. Solidifies the 242 floor for HRC. Add in NV, CO, NM, and NH and Hillary gets to 266. Done deal with just IA (272) let alone VA, OH, FL or longer shots NC, IN, MO, or AZ.

If the race isn't close in CA, will vote for Johnson/Weld. Can't stand either Trump or Hillary, so it's a message to both parties to nominate much better candidates without tipping a state to Trump.
Click to expand...

If California is close, the #NeverTrump people are in big trouble.
 
Face the Nation had a discussion on the EC map. They don't even consider NM a battleground state (NV & CO are) anymore. Martinez's star has fallen, but also explains her public resistance to split a taco bowl with el jefe Donald. Add Johnson into the NM mix along with Mormon ire toward Trump and he's fucked hisself in the West.

Also had polling that showed 60% support for Obama from HRC supporters at this point in 2008 vs 72% support for Hillary from Bernie supporters now.
 
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

After being down nearly 10% a couple of months ago, RCP's average of the latest polls now has Trump in the lead.

I don't know whether Trump is actually ahead right now or not.....but the direction of the movement is undeniable.

(It's still not too late for the Democrats to come to their senses and replace Hillary as their nominee....whether with Sanders, Biden, or whomever. What is it going to take? A possible loss in California? (Unlikely, but no longer impossible) An indictment? She is already hemorrhaging support, and it's still only May.)
 
bobknightfan said:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

After being down nearly 10% a couple of months ago, RCP's average of the latest polls now has Trump in the lead.

I don't know whether Trump is actually ahead right now or not.....but the direction of the movement is undeniable.

(It's still not too late for the Democrats to come to their senses and replace Hillary as their nominee....whether with Sanders, Biden, or whomever. What is it going to take? A possible loss in California? (Unlikely, but no longer impossible) An indictment? She is already hemorrhaging support, and it's still only May.)
Click to expand...

Wrong thread Bob.
 
Why? Rube just referred to Trump's problems in the West in the previous post. I was just pointing out that he is now leading in RCP's consensus of polls.

All of these things are related.
 
In a different year or in a different state, I'd probably vote Johnson/Weld, but will probably bite the bullet and go with Clinton.
 
bobknightfan said:
Why? Rube just referred to Trump's problems in the West in the previous post. I was just pointing out that he is now leading in RCP's consensus of polls.

All of these things are related.
Click to expand...

Please try to stay on topic. Would hate to have the mods issue you a warning.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Also had polling that showed 60% support for Obama from HRC supporters at this point in 2008 vs 72% support for Hillary from Bernie supporters now.
Click to expand...

You don't say.

So, not only is Sanders still not overstaying his welcome relative to Clinton's '08 run, but his supporters are also more willing to support the presumptive nominee than Clinton's supporters in '08.

Makes you wonder.
 
bobknightfan said:
Why? Rube just referred to Trump's problems in the West in the previous post. I was just pointing out that he is now leading in RCP's consensus of polls.

All of these things are related.
Click to expand...

There are 53 congressional districts in CA. Trump could win 100% of the popular vote in Wyoming and Alaska and that would equate to 2 congressional districts. Trump's going to get schlonged in the West in both the EV and the popular vote. Ask Gore which one is the only one that matters.

Latest RCP on CA has Hillary up 10 points on Bernie. Sounds about right for the CA margin for HRC over Trump in the general election. If she's polling lower than high single digits in November, I'll reluctantly vote for her, but I fully expect to be voting for Johnson/Weld.

You really should check out the RCP EC map. CA is solid Dem. Utah is a Trump lean. NV, CO, and AZ are toss ups. You are emphatic that Trump will win NC. RCP has it as a toss up.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
There are 53 congressional districts in CA. Trump could win 100% of the popular vote in Wyoming and Alaska and that would equate to 2 congressional districts. Trump's going to get schlonged in the West in both the EV and the popular vote. Ask Gore which one is the only one that matters.

Latest RCP on CA has Hillary up 10 points on Bernie. Sounds about right for the CA margin for HRC over Trump in the general election. If she's polling lower than high single digits in November, I'll reluctantly vote for her, but I fully expect to be voting for Johnson/Weld.

You really should check out the RCP EC map. CA is solid Dem. Utah is a Trump lean. NV, CO, and AZ are toss ups. You are emphatic that Trump will win NC. RCP has it as a toss up.
Click to expand...

I look at RCP's electoral map regularly. 10% seems low for a Democratic margin in California. If Hillary can't win California by considerably more than that, she is probably in trouble nationwide. Obama won the state by 24% & 23%. Would be shocked if Utah is any problem at all for the Republicans. McCain won the state by 24% & the Mormon won it by 48%. Obviously, Trump can't match Romney in Utah....but the state has been the most reliably Republican state in the Union for many years. I'm not worried about Arizona, either. The Democrats should win in New Mexico & Colorado. Nevada is always close.

I realize that North Carolina will be close, but I just feel very good about Trump's chance to win the state. I think the furor over HB2 will actually help him in NC. This is an issue where polling may not be reliable. Amendment One passed by 61% to 39% in NC....and even I voted against that one. Feel that NC voters will feel even stronger about HB2 than they did about Amendment One.
 
Strickland33 said:
You don't say.

So, not only is Sanders still not overstaying his welcome relative to Clinton's '08 run, but his supporters are also more willing to support the presumptive nominee than Clinton's supporters in '08.

Makes you wonder.
Click to expand...

Numbers made sense (maybe even slightly low?) for the Bernie supporters I know in real life. They really like Warren, like Bernie, dislike Hillary, but hate Trump. Hillary should just let Bernie play the string out. Doesn't need to give him any shit, but also doesn't need to put him on the ticket either. People compare Bernie to Trump, but he's more like Cruz. Not going to win the nomination, but hurts himself if he's a dick about it.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
...Also had polling that showed 60% support for Obama from HRC supporters at this point in 2008 vs 72% support for Hillary from Bernie supporters now.
Click to expand...
Yeah as if all those 65+ yo Hillary supporters weren't going to vote? Please. Use common sense, who is more likely to stay home on election day? Spoiled millenial Bernie supporters, or old pant suit wearing Hillary supporters?

The establishment is daring people to sit this one out
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
There are 53 congressional districts in CA. Trump could win 100% of the popular vote in Wyoming and Alaska and that would equate to 2 congressional districts. Trump's going to get schlonged in the West in both the EV and the popular vote. Ask Gore which one is the only one that matters.

Latest RCP on CA has Hillary up 10 points on Bernie. Sounds about right for the CA margin for HRC over Trump in the general election. If she's polling lower than high single digits in November, I'll reluctantly vote for her, but I fully expect to be voting for Johnson/Weld.

You really should check out the RCP EC map. CA is solid Dem. Utah is a Trump lean. NV, CO, and AZ are toss ups. You are emphatic that Trump will win NC. RCP has it as a toss up.
Click to expand...

Here is RCP's latest electoral map, Rube. Hillary is weakening & Trump is strengthening there as well.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Michigan & Minnesota have moved from "Leans Clinton" to "Toss-Up"....dropping Hillary's total from 227 to 201.

Indiana & Missouri have moved from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Trump"....raising Trump's total from 143 to 164.

Huge block of electoral votes now in the "Toss-Up" category....including the key states of Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio & Michigan.

Not to worry, though. DeacsPop is still calmly predicting the mother of all landslides for Hillary.
 
bobknightfan said:
Here is RCP's latest electoral map, Rube. Hillary is weakening & Trump is strengthening there as well.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Michigan & Minnesota have moved from "Leans Clinton" to "Toss-Up"....dropping Hillary's total from 227 to 201.

Indiana & Missouri have moved from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Trump"....raising Trump's total from 143 to 164.

Huge block of electoral votes now in the "Toss-Up" category....including the key states of Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio & Michigan.

Not to worry, though. DeacsPop is still calmly predicting the mother of all landslides for Hillary.
Click to expand...

Yes because everyone knows polls this early in this race are worthless. 😎😎😎
 
DeacsPop said:
Yes because everyone knows polls this early in this race are worthless. ������
Click to expand...

.....and that statements like "Hillary will win in the largest landslide in U.S. history because this country will never elect Donald Trump" are a result of deep thought and extensive research"?

I realize that polls are volatile and subject to change as we get closer to November......but for the time being I think I would choose what the polls say over this latter statement... which is backed by nothing other than personal preference...as a better indication of where this race stands today.

I've already had my "Moment of Electoral Despair" in 2004. (Actually, two of them, because 1972 hurt just as much as 2004.) Losing this one won't hurt anywhere nearly as much as those two. I'm rather numb about electoral politics by now....and not remotely emotionally vested as much as I was in 1972 & 2004. I actually had hope & cared in those two elections. I'm well set & comfortable for myself, my son & my grandchildren now....so it really doesn't matter to me personally what the hell happens now in this one. However, if Trump should somehow win this thing it is going to be highly entertaining to follow the reactions of many posters on this board.
 
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