Pilchard
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The Deacs continue their 3 game road trip as they head to Charlottesville to visit the defending national champs this Wednesday. Here is the rundown on the Cavs:
This season: Virginia sits at 5-2 and KP ranks UVA #17. UVA has one top 100 win (66-57 over #88 @ ND last week; UVA led the entire game, but could not pull away). Against the three weaklings on its schedule, UVA has dominated from the tip (led #222 Towson 42-19 at the half; led #263 St. Francis 45-13 at the half; led #288 William and Mary 36-14 at the half). So, Tony Bennett's team can still turn up the defensive screws on weaker teams. UVA has struggled against better competition losing to #78 USF 61-60 and needing OT to beat #148 Kent State in OT. Also, #1 Gonzaga toyed with UVA beating the Wahoos 98-75 (the first time UVA had given up 90 or more points in a game in 7 years).
The lineup: UVA is big and they play a 9 man rotation and has used a variety of starting lineups. Against ND, UVA started:
5-9 Jr. Kihei Clark (steals and assist leader; 33% from 3)
6-3 So. Casey Morsell (Bennett likes his D; terrible shooter)
6-8 Sr. Sam Hauser (Marquette transfer; UVA leading scorer; 37% from 3)
6-9 Jr. Trey Murphy (Rice transfer; hitting 52% from 3; 56% from 2; #12 player in the nation in offensive rating)
7-1 Sr. Jay Huff (blocks leader; hitting 46% from 3; #21 player in the nation in offensive rating)
Off the bench:
6-3 Fr. G Reece Beekman (#67 recruit in 2020 HS class -- has 3 starts; 37% from 3)
6-5 Sr. G/F Tomas Woldentensae (36% from 3)
6-8 Fr. F/C Justin McCoy (HS class of 2019; redshirted)
6-11 Fr. C Kadin Shedrick (HS class of 2019; #68 recruit; red-shirted in 2019; scored in double figures twice; scored two or less in the other 5 games)
The metrics: UVA is still an elite defensive team; just not the juggernaut of recent years. Currently, the Cavs are #9 in defensive efficiency. As always, Bennett's teams focus on controlling the paint, holding teams to 44% from 2, and dominating the boards on defense (#1 in the ACC in preventing offensive rebounds). The opposite of Forbes' defensive philosophy, UVA's pack line defense forces few turnovers (#302 in defensive TO percentage), but they almost never give up good shots. Offensively, UVA gets a lot of its offense from 3s (33% #99 in the country), but UVA shoots well from everywhere (58% on 2s; 78% from the line); UVA does not draw many fouls (#283 in FTA/FGA). As always, UVA plays at a snails pace, despite the Gonzaga track meet, UVA is DFL in the country (#357) in tempo averaging 60 possessions a game (NCAA average is 70).
The bottom line: I hate this matchup. UVA is big, deep, well-coached and grinds up weak inexperienced opponents. Plus, they have had a week off after beating ND in South Bend. UVA probably has more talent this year than last (they went 15-5 in a deeper ACC last year), but it has taken time for Bennett to get all of the new parts to work together. Have little doubt he will get that done. Love Forbes, but this WF team is still trying to find its legs from the month long COVID pause. This would be a tough matchup even is WF was healthy and had everyone available. KP projects a 68-55 UVA win. With WF coming off a 50 point outing at GT, don't see WF getting to 50, maybe not even 40. Fear that half time will be something like 38-14. Better days are ahead for the Deacs, but don't see Wednesday being one of them.
This season: Virginia sits at 5-2 and KP ranks UVA #17. UVA has one top 100 win (66-57 over #88 @ ND last week; UVA led the entire game, but could not pull away). Against the three weaklings on its schedule, UVA has dominated from the tip (led #222 Towson 42-19 at the half; led #263 St. Francis 45-13 at the half; led #288 William and Mary 36-14 at the half). So, Tony Bennett's team can still turn up the defensive screws on weaker teams. UVA has struggled against better competition losing to #78 USF 61-60 and needing OT to beat #148 Kent State in OT. Also, #1 Gonzaga toyed with UVA beating the Wahoos 98-75 (the first time UVA had given up 90 or more points in a game in 7 years).
The lineup: UVA is big and they play a 9 man rotation and has used a variety of starting lineups. Against ND, UVA started:
5-9 Jr. Kihei Clark (steals and assist leader; 33% from 3)
6-3 So. Casey Morsell (Bennett likes his D; terrible shooter)
6-8 Sr. Sam Hauser (Marquette transfer; UVA leading scorer; 37% from 3)
6-9 Jr. Trey Murphy (Rice transfer; hitting 52% from 3; 56% from 2; #12 player in the nation in offensive rating)
7-1 Sr. Jay Huff (blocks leader; hitting 46% from 3; #21 player in the nation in offensive rating)
Off the bench:
6-3 Fr. G Reece Beekman (#67 recruit in 2020 HS class -- has 3 starts; 37% from 3)
6-5 Sr. G/F Tomas Woldentensae (36% from 3)
6-8 Fr. F/C Justin McCoy (HS class of 2019; redshirted)
6-11 Fr. C Kadin Shedrick (HS class of 2019; #68 recruit; red-shirted in 2019; scored in double figures twice; scored two or less in the other 5 games)
The metrics: UVA is still an elite defensive team; just not the juggernaut of recent years. Currently, the Cavs are #9 in defensive efficiency. As always, Bennett's teams focus on controlling the paint, holding teams to 44% from 2, and dominating the boards on defense (#1 in the ACC in preventing offensive rebounds). The opposite of Forbes' defensive philosophy, UVA's pack line defense forces few turnovers (#302 in defensive TO percentage), but they almost never give up good shots. Offensively, UVA gets a lot of its offense from 3s (33% #99 in the country), but UVA shoots well from everywhere (58% on 2s; 78% from the line); UVA does not draw many fouls (#283 in FTA/FGA). As always, UVA plays at a snails pace, despite the Gonzaga track meet, UVA is DFL in the country (#357) in tempo averaging 60 possessions a game (NCAA average is 70).
The bottom line: I hate this matchup. UVA is big, deep, well-coached and grinds up weak inexperienced opponents. Plus, they have had a week off after beating ND in South Bend. UVA probably has more talent this year than last (they went 15-5 in a deeper ACC last year), but it has taken time for Bennett to get all of the new parts to work together. Have little doubt he will get that done. Love Forbes, but this WF team is still trying to find its legs from the month long COVID pause. This would be a tough matchup even is WF was healthy and had everyone available. KP projects a 68-55 UVA win. With WF coming off a 50 point outing at GT, don't see WF getting to 50, maybe not even 40. Fear that half time will be something like 38-14. Better days are ahead for the Deacs, but don't see Wednesday being one of them.
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