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KP Report on the UNC Tarheels Saturday Noon ESPN 2

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Will be heading to Charlotte for the much-anticipated Belk Bowl and neither UNC nor WF has a game before Saturday; so, here is the KP Report for WF's first ACC game of the 2017-8 season:

PAIN

More detail:

2017-8 Schedule: North Carolina (KP #8) is 11-2 this year. Top 100 wins: #88 N. Iowa by 17, #97 Bucknell by 12, #25 Arkansas by 19, #33 Michigan by 15, #92 Davidson by 10, #19 Tennessee (on the road) by 5, #45 tOSU by 14. Losses: #2 Michigan State by 18 and #175 Wofford by 4. So, UNC is 7-1 versus the top 100, and only the TN game was decided by less than double digits. UNC's OOC schedule is rated #29 in the country (WF's is #178). WF last won at the Dean Dome on January 20, 2010 (82-69 WF win); last win against UNC anywhere was Janury 5, 2014 at the Joel - Deacs had balanced scoring as Travis McKie had 16, Codi Miller-McIntyre had 12, Tyley Cavanaugh and Billy Moto each had 11. Last year, WF lost 93-87, Bryant Crawford led all scorers with 22 points.

Offense: The Holes are #17 on offense with 115.6 adjusted efficiency. UNC's strength on offense (as always) is getting second shots as they are #20 in offensive rebounding %. They can also hit the 3 as they shoot 39.6% (#38), UNC's effective FG% is 54% (#72). UNC is the most up tempo team on offense that WF has played this year. N. Carolina's average possession length on offense is 14.5 seconds (8th fastest in the nation). So, UNC looks to shoot early, and then get an offensive rebound if they miss. UNC doesn't have any major offensive weakness, but they are mediocre at FT shooting (#144), scoring inside (#116 51.6% in 2 PT %), and protecting the ball (#105 in offensive turnover %).

Defense: The Holes are #15 on defense, and even though they push tempo on offense, UNC has been good at extending possessions on defense (#242 in length of defensive possessions). The Hole's strengths on defense are preventing offensive rebounds (#7), not fouling.. or perhaps, not getting called for fouls (#10 in FTA per FGA), defending the paint (#18 in 2 PT FG% 42.7) and blocking shots (#52 in blocked shot %). Despite their strengths on defense, N Carolina does not force turnovers on D (#265) and they don't defend the 3 point shot well (37.4% #264). UNC will mix up their defense and will often play more zone than man.

Lineup: UNC plays a rotation of 8 to 10 players, and they have some size, but they are not as huge upfront as recent Hole teams. UNC starts 6-0 (Berry), 6-4 (Williams), 6-6 (Pinson), 6-9 (Brooks), 6-8 (Maye). Off the bench, N. Carolina has 6-8 small forward Cameron Johnson (Pitt transfer - hurt when the season started, but has played the last two games - he played 23 minutes and scored 14 points against tOSU on Saturday), 6-11 center Sterling Manley, and 6-3 freshman guards Andrew Platnek and Jalek Felton. UNC has several players who can hit the 3: Luke Maye 46%, Kenny Williams 52%, Jalek Felton (46%), Berry (36%), Platek (43%). Pinson has really struggled shooting this year (12% from 3).

Projection: Like WF, N. Carolina has a week off between games, and they should be focused for Saturday's ACC opener (UNC did lose their opening ACC game last year at GT). KP projects a 88-75 final, giving UNC a 89% win probability. UNC is a lot like the team that worked WF by 19 last Saturday, except they are a much better offensive team than Tennessee. Really tough spot for the Deacs. Got to think Crawford and Moore will play better, but even so, hard to envision as scenario where WF wins this game. That said, Wofford beat UNC at the Dean Dome a week ago; so, you never know. That's why they play the games.
 
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Early prediction - Pinson hits his first 2-3 3's of the day.
 
I pray that Pinson takes at LEAST 10 threes, I like our odds if he does
 
BirdinBama said:
We're going to get killed.
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I do not think you realize how garbage the Deacons are at this point in the season. This particular team has not figured out how to play any defense, how to block out and rebound on any level and right now their shooting skills have left all but Woods. Childress cannot pass the ball, Crawford cannot run the team, Wilbekin keeps trying to drive and he is too short and needs to realize he is a spot up jump shooter. Somewhere along the line Big Sam has to earn his way into the lineup to give us another big body.



As was said earlier before the Jam of Paradise in Lynchburg this team does not and will not play any defense. Therefore it will be killed by the GoatHoles of North Carolina who learned their lesson for the season most likely when they lost to Wofford. We on the other hand do not seem to learn lessons as we have never learned to play any defense in the past nine plus seasons. What was to have been a Manning hallmark when he came here has turned into a total joke as we do not get in front of players, remain in front of players, take charges or get in many passing lanes. We also make too many stupid errors of omission turnovers and take too many far away jump shots. Four Atlantic Coast Conference wins at most for us.
 
Right. Even the best ball we've played all year would result in a .500 team in conference.
 
This game reminds me of December 20, 2003.

Our talent level is a little lower than that team, but could be a real thriller.
 
A little lower? I don’t think any of our current roster would start for the 2003-04 team.
 
Complacent Deac said:
This game reminds me of December 20, 2003.

Our talent level is a little lower than that team, but could be a real thriller.
Click to expand...

I'll assume this post is total sarcasm. But, if not, I'd lay off the heavy liquor for a while.
 
PhDeac said:
A little lower? I don’t think any of our current roster would start for the 2003-04 team.
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Not with Skip coaching it. But Doral does a lot of things better than Eric Williams.
 
wfu22fan said:
Not with Skip coaching it. But Doral does a lot of things better than Eric Williams.
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Big E stats

points: 1738
rebounds: 858
steals: 132
Blocks: 112
all acc twice

Im not sure if Doral is better than Big E at anything other than being tall
 
Doral does jump and block shots better than Big E did. But that's about it. One thing I've been hoping for since Big E left was finding a big who could throw outlet passes like he did.
 
Doral has better rebounding statistics based on the time he's on the floor but it seems like a lot of that is this team does not have many other good rebounders whereas Big E had guys like Levy, Vytas, Strickland, and (albeit freshman) Visser who were gobbling up boards on their own. Williams played a bigger role in the offense overall scoring wise than Doral and drew more fouls. Both guys are/were prone to foul trouble.

We'll see how Doral stacks up in the ACC season because right now we're comparing Doral's OOC effort against an entire body of work from Big E. Big E is better but it may not be as big a gap as many thing. Again, need to see Doral go to battle against ACC bigs night in and night out before drawing any big conclusions.
 
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