Pilchard
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The road-weary Deacs play just their 3rd home game in a month as WF hosts Duke this Wednesday night. Here is the link to the previous KP report on Duke: https://www.ogboards.com/forums/showthread.php/32774-KP-Report-WF-Duke-Noon-Saturday-ACCN
Here is an Blue Devils update to that report:
The schedule: Since beating WF on January 9, the Devils have staggered to a 3-6 mark over the last 9 games. After the win over the Deacs, Duke lost 4 straight road games (@ VT, @ Pitt, @ L'ville, and @ Miami), until dominating State this past Saturday in a 69-53 Devils' win. Over those 9 games, Duke has dropped from a #16 KP rating on January 8 to #36, and Duke needs to finish strong to avoid missing their first NCAA tournament in 24 years (think about this: Randolph Childress was WF's PG and Tim Duncan led the Deacs' in "paint touches" the last time Duke missed the NCAAs). After WF on Wednesday, Duke hosts UVA, Cuse and L'vile, and then finishes the regular season at GT and at UNC; all losable games for the Devils. Duke likely needs to win 4 of its last 6 regular season games, and then a game in the ACC tourney to get in position to dance.
The lineup: Duke played its best game of the season last time out blitzing State early (Duke led 33-13) to cruise to a 16 point road win in Raleigh. Duke started:
6-1 Fr. Jeremy Roach - 2nd in assists and fouls; can't shoot 25% from 3, but hits 62% from 2; only scored 2 points against State
6-2 Fr. DJ Steward - coming off his highest rated KP Game against State: 12 points 4 assists; shooting 37% for 2; scored in double figures 7 games in a row
6-5 So. Wendell Moore - up and down; scored 24 against ND and 25 against BC scored 5 or less eight times; 29% from 3
6-9 So. Matthew Hurt - leading scorer and rebounder; shooting 44% from 3; scored in double figures every game, but one (UNC); shot 6 of 7 from 3 against State this past weekend
7-0 Fr. Mark Williams - has been a non-factor all year, but erupted for a season-high 13 points against State; leads team in blocks
Off the bench, Duke primarily used:
6-2 Sr. Jordan Goldwire - 3rd in minutes; good defender; limited offense (6 ppg); did score his career high (14 points) last time against WF
6-8 Fr. Jaemyn Brakefield - essentially had not played in a month (since Jalen Johnson's return); played 14 minutes of mostly garbage time against State; 6 points and 5 boards
6-9 Fr. F/C Jalen Johnson - missed a month with an injury, but hasn't lived up to the lottery pick hype; 8 for 18 from 3 (44%); had a monster game at Pitt 24 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists, but has been inconsistent
Also, the annoying Joey Baker has been a non-factor all year; he didn't play in the win against State.
Analytics: In conference play, Duke has been solid offensively (#3), but weak defensively (#11). Prior to holding State to 53 on Saturday, the Devils gave up 91 and 93 in losses to UNC and ND. Duke is 2nd to last in the conference in effective FG% defense (56.4%) and has been DFL in defending the 3 point shot, surrendering 40% to opponents behind the arc. Of concern to WF, Duke forces TOs as they are 3rd in the ACC in defensive TO %. Offensively, Duke has been tough to stop inside in conference play shooting 54% on 2 point shots and grabbing 33% of available offensive rebounds (#3 in the ACC). An aberration for Blue Devil basketball, this team doesn't draw many fouls as they are 2nd to last in the ACC in FTA per FGA.
Bottom line: KP projects a 75-70 Duke win (69 possessions); 31% chance for a Deacon win. With a bandwagon fanbase, most Dookies abandoned ship long ago, but this Devil team still has a lot of talent, and didn't have perhaps their best player, Jalen Johnson, for a month. While Duke is a crappy defensive team, they also have had some bad luck as ACC teams have shot an unsustainable 40% from deep against Duke. The big win over State may be the game that turns the momentum for the Devils. Like Duke, WF is undervalued (IIRC, WF has covered 9 of its last 11 games; including the OT loss at Tallahassee as a 11 point dog); WF is also getting better as WF has had perhaps its best player, Ian DuBose, return from injury/covid. Also, WF has played well at home winning its last two and covering its last 3. Tough game to pick as Duke does bring pressure defense which WF has not handled well, and WF has not defended the paint well (DFL in the ACC in 2 PT FG% defense) and that's where Duke gets most of its points. Give a slight lean to WF plus the points and the over (the total should be around 145; WF scoring is up with DuBose back; last February Duke and WF combined for 214 points in Brandon Childress's moment in the sun as WF beat Duke in 2 OTs), but a narrow Duke win where late FTs give the Devils the cover would not surprise either.
Here is an Blue Devils update to that report:
The schedule: Since beating WF on January 9, the Devils have staggered to a 3-6 mark over the last 9 games. After the win over the Deacs, Duke lost 4 straight road games (@ VT, @ Pitt, @ L'ville, and @ Miami), until dominating State this past Saturday in a 69-53 Devils' win. Over those 9 games, Duke has dropped from a #16 KP rating on January 8 to #36, and Duke needs to finish strong to avoid missing their first NCAA tournament in 24 years (think about this: Randolph Childress was WF's PG and Tim Duncan led the Deacs' in "paint touches" the last time Duke missed the NCAAs). After WF on Wednesday, Duke hosts UVA, Cuse and L'vile, and then finishes the regular season at GT and at UNC; all losable games for the Devils. Duke likely needs to win 4 of its last 6 regular season games, and then a game in the ACC tourney to get in position to dance.
The lineup: Duke played its best game of the season last time out blitzing State early (Duke led 33-13) to cruise to a 16 point road win in Raleigh. Duke started:
6-1 Fr. Jeremy Roach - 2nd in assists and fouls; can't shoot 25% from 3, but hits 62% from 2; only scored 2 points against State
6-2 Fr. DJ Steward - coming off his highest rated KP Game against State: 12 points 4 assists; shooting 37% for 2; scored in double figures 7 games in a row
6-5 So. Wendell Moore - up and down; scored 24 against ND and 25 against BC scored 5 or less eight times; 29% from 3
6-9 So. Matthew Hurt - leading scorer and rebounder; shooting 44% from 3; scored in double figures every game, but one (UNC); shot 6 of 7 from 3 against State this past weekend
7-0 Fr. Mark Williams - has been a non-factor all year, but erupted for a season-high 13 points against State; leads team in blocks
Off the bench, Duke primarily used:
6-2 Sr. Jordan Goldwire - 3rd in minutes; good defender; limited offense (6 ppg); did score his career high (14 points) last time against WF
6-8 Fr. Jaemyn Brakefield - essentially had not played in a month (since Jalen Johnson's return); played 14 minutes of mostly garbage time against State; 6 points and 5 boards
6-9 Fr. F/C Jalen Johnson - missed a month with an injury, but hasn't lived up to the lottery pick hype; 8 for 18 from 3 (44%); had a monster game at Pitt 24 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists, but has been inconsistent
Also, the annoying Joey Baker has been a non-factor all year; he didn't play in the win against State.
Analytics: In conference play, Duke has been solid offensively (#3), but weak defensively (#11). Prior to holding State to 53 on Saturday, the Devils gave up 91 and 93 in losses to UNC and ND. Duke is 2nd to last in the conference in effective FG% defense (56.4%) and has been DFL in defending the 3 point shot, surrendering 40% to opponents behind the arc. Of concern to WF, Duke forces TOs as they are 3rd in the ACC in defensive TO %. Offensively, Duke has been tough to stop inside in conference play shooting 54% on 2 point shots and grabbing 33% of available offensive rebounds (#3 in the ACC). An aberration for Blue Devil basketball, this team doesn't draw many fouls as they are 2nd to last in the ACC in FTA per FGA.
Bottom line: KP projects a 75-70 Duke win (69 possessions); 31% chance for a Deacon win. With a bandwagon fanbase, most Dookies abandoned ship long ago, but this Devil team still has a lot of talent, and didn't have perhaps their best player, Jalen Johnson, for a month. While Duke is a crappy defensive team, they also have had some bad luck as ACC teams have shot an unsustainable 40% from deep against Duke. The big win over State may be the game that turns the momentum for the Devils. Like Duke, WF is undervalued (IIRC, WF has covered 9 of its last 11 games; including the OT loss at Tallahassee as a 11 point dog); WF is also getting better as WF has had perhaps its best player, Ian DuBose, return from injury/covid. Also, WF has played well at home winning its last two and covering its last 3. Tough game to pick as Duke does bring pressure defense which WF has not handled well, and WF has not defended the paint well (DFL in the ACC in 2 PT FG% defense) and that's where Duke gets most of its points. Give a slight lean to WF plus the points and the over (the total should be around 145; WF scoring is up with DuBose back; last February Duke and WF combined for 214 points in Brandon Childress's moment in the sun as WF beat Duke in 2 OTs), but a narrow Duke win where late FTs give the Devils the cover would not surprise either.
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