Pilchard
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Our undefeated Deacs embark on their first road trip of the season as they head to McCamish Pavilion on Sunday for WF's ACC Opener. Here is a quick take on the Jackets:
This season: Lost in the haze of the confusing end to the 2020 season was the GT surprising 5th place finish and winning conference record (11-9). Josh Pastner had the Jackets playing their best ball to end last season as they finished last year winning six of their last seven ACC games, and their last 8 games at McCamish. With that hot finish and 6 of their top 7 returning, some jumped on the the Jackets as a trendy surprise team in 2021. Things didn't start as planned as GT opened the season with losses to GA State (#106) in 4 OTs and Mercer (#160). Since the early stumble to start the season, GT has returned to form winning 5 of 6, including a dominating 17 point win over KY (#52) and Wednesday's come from behind 5 point win over UNC (# 27). GT's lone loss since November was by 13 at talented FSU (#32). Heading into Sunday's tilt versus the Deacs, GT sits at 5-3 (1-1).
The lineup: GT is one of the most experienced teams in the country (#6), but they aren't deep (#322 in bench minutes) or particularly big (#265 in height), against UNC, the Jackets top 6 played all but 9 minutes. GT has an experienced battle tested back court with 6-0 Sr. Jose Alvarado (seems like he's been at GT forever, think Bobby Cremins may have recruited Alvarado ;-)), 5-11 Sr. Bubba Parham and 6-5 Junior Michael Devoe. All are threats from 3, as they have combined for 46 threes on the season, Alvarado is the best so far this year, shooting 40% from deep; Devoe considered heading to the NBA after last season and can score. GT is not huge upfront with C James Banks departing, but 6-9 Sr. Moses Wright has improved every year to become a solid inside finisher, while 6-7 Jordan Usher and 6-7 Khalid Moore rotate in at the PF and C spots. Each of GT's top 6 can hit the 3.
The skinny: When looking at early in the conference season matchups, often look to see if either team is stepping up in competition for the first time (to go against the team faces speed, size and ability for the first time). No team is taking a bigger step up in competition to start conference play than WF. The two D1 teams (Del. State and Longwood) that WF has played to start the year are a combined 2-13 on the season and both are rated among the bottom 15% in D1 teams. Plus as the result of COVID racking the program, WF has played one game since November 27, and to be kind, WF looked "rusty" against D2 Catawba yesterday. Finally, WF may be missing up to 5 scholarship players (Ingraham, Adams, Antonio, Dubose and Okpomo) on Sunday. Given these factors, the KP projected final of 73-67 is essentially meaningless. The line will be double digits, and expect the vast majority of the action to be on GT. Against a deeper, bigger opponet, I would be calling for a WF blowout loss, but GT is coming off a huge win over UNC and they have a key road trip on deck. Also, GT under Pastner notoriously plays up to or down to their competition. As mentioned above, they have lost GA State and Mercer (who are decent mid-major teams), and they also allowed Florida A&M (#294) to hang around only beating the Rattlers by 10. Finally, GT also played pathetic Delaware State and Pastner somehow found a way to win that game by "only" 28, WF beat the Hornets by 60. Within the realm of possibility for GT to fail to bring their "A" or even their "B" game on Sunday. Unfortunately, even if GT plays with a lack of focus, it doesn't appear that WF is in position to take advantage given the adversity faced to start the season. WF may hang around early, but the more experienced and talented Jackets will pull away to win.
This season: Lost in the haze of the confusing end to the 2020 season was the GT surprising 5th place finish and winning conference record (11-9). Josh Pastner had the Jackets playing their best ball to end last season as they finished last year winning six of their last seven ACC games, and their last 8 games at McCamish. With that hot finish and 6 of their top 7 returning, some jumped on the the Jackets as a trendy surprise team in 2021. Things didn't start as planned as GT opened the season with losses to GA State (#106) in 4 OTs and Mercer (#160). Since the early stumble to start the season, GT has returned to form winning 5 of 6, including a dominating 17 point win over KY (#52) and Wednesday's come from behind 5 point win over UNC (# 27). GT's lone loss since November was by 13 at talented FSU (#32). Heading into Sunday's tilt versus the Deacs, GT sits at 5-3 (1-1).
The lineup: GT is one of the most experienced teams in the country (#6), but they aren't deep (#322 in bench minutes) or particularly big (#265 in height), against UNC, the Jackets top 6 played all but 9 minutes. GT has an experienced battle tested back court with 6-0 Sr. Jose Alvarado (seems like he's been at GT forever, think Bobby Cremins may have recruited Alvarado ;-)), 5-11 Sr. Bubba Parham and 6-5 Junior Michael Devoe. All are threats from 3, as they have combined for 46 threes on the season, Alvarado is the best so far this year, shooting 40% from deep; Devoe considered heading to the NBA after last season and can score. GT is not huge upfront with C James Banks departing, but 6-9 Sr. Moses Wright has improved every year to become a solid inside finisher, while 6-7 Jordan Usher and 6-7 Khalid Moore rotate in at the PF and C spots. Each of GT's top 6 can hit the 3.
The skinny: When looking at early in the conference season matchups, often look to see if either team is stepping up in competition for the first time (to go against the team faces speed, size and ability for the first time). No team is taking a bigger step up in competition to start conference play than WF. The two D1 teams (Del. State and Longwood) that WF has played to start the year are a combined 2-13 on the season and both are rated among the bottom 15% in D1 teams. Plus as the result of COVID racking the program, WF has played one game since November 27, and to be kind, WF looked "rusty" against D2 Catawba yesterday. Finally, WF may be missing up to 5 scholarship players (Ingraham, Adams, Antonio, Dubose and Okpomo) on Sunday. Given these factors, the KP projected final of 73-67 is essentially meaningless. The line will be double digits, and expect the vast majority of the action to be on GT. Against a deeper, bigger opponet, I would be calling for a WF blowout loss, but GT is coming off a huge win over UNC and they have a key road trip on deck. Also, GT under Pastner notoriously plays up to or down to their competition. As mentioned above, they have lost GA State and Mercer (who are decent mid-major teams), and they also allowed Florida A&M (#294) to hang around only beating the Rattlers by 10. Finally, GT also played pathetic Delaware State and Pastner somehow found a way to win that game by "only" 28, WF beat the Hornets by 60. Within the realm of possibility for GT to fail to bring their "A" or even their "B" game on Sunday. Unfortunately, even if GT plays with a lack of focus, it doesn't appear that WF is in position to take advantage given the adversity faced to start the season. WF may hang around early, but the more experienced and talented Jackets will pull away to win.