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Kurds to vote on independence from Iraq

Deacon923

Deacon923

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Perhaps some small silver lining to the mess in Iraq. The Kurds have been oppressed by pretty much every regional power for the past 500 years, I say good for them if they can set up a functioning state.

http://time.com/2945035/iraqi-kurds-to-vote-on-independence/

The US is going to be put in an awkward position since we just went apeshit when the Crimea voted to leave Ukraine and join Russia and since our official position is that Iraq has to stay together.
 
This was thought to be virtually inevitable by many once we invaded Iraq. They could be very prosperous and very peaceful.
 
The problem will get much more complicated (if it wasn't enough already) when the Kurds in Turkey start wanting their independence as well.

Turkey is not going to take that well at all.
 
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They'll be at war with Turkey within a year or two and the rest of Iraq if the coming Sunni/Shiite civil war ends.
 
The Shiites are not going to let the Kurds control those oil fields around Kirkuk. They might make an uneasy peace with them for the time being as they have their hands full with ISIS but once that is over they will turn their attention to the Kurds.
 
My initial reaction was "what about Turkey" but apparently that is old news, per this article (linked from the first one I posted): http://time.com/2898883/iraq-turkey-kurd-isis/

Eleven years later, Iraq’s Kurds have finally acted on their plan – sending forces to take the disputed, oil-rich city of Kirkuk, known as the “Kurdish Jerusalem,” and declaring the end of Iraq as the world now knows it. And what did Turkey do? Wish them well. “The Kurds of Iraq can decide for themselves the name and type of entity they are living in,” a spokesman for Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party told a Kurdish news outlet.
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I had not kept up with this and had not been aware that the relations between the Kurds and Turkey had warmed up so much. Amazing what oil wealth will do - even your oldest enemy suddenly decides they'd like to help you export that oil and make money from it.
 
A significant number of people in the media and on these boards mocked Joe Biden when he said a "three state solution"was the most likely result of our invasion.

Many of us were also attacked for saying the ultimate of our invasion would be Iran. It clearly is.
 
The enmity between Kurdish MPs and legislators aligned with the beleaguered prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, flared quickly in the brief parliament session, with a Maliki MP angrily remonstrating with a Kurdish counterpart's demands that salaries which had been frozen by Baghdad be paid.

"Those who tear down the Iraqi flag, we will crush with our shoes," the Maliki MP shouted.

Across nearly all of northern Iraq, the national flag is no longer flying. The Kurds have raised their banner above all former central government buildings in Kirkuk, which their forces took as the Iraqi army fled from the jihadist group Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isis) two weeks ago.
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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/01/iraqi-parliament-session-collapses-death-toll-isis
 
More:

http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/130620142

Turkey and Kurdistan have signed a 50-year energy deal and Kurdish oil is exported via a pipeline that connects the autonomous region to the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean.
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Oil is truly an amazing thing.

If Turkey is backing Kurdistan, and the US looks the other way or backs Kurdistan, I don't think whoever ends up running Baghdad or the Iranians have got the stones to get into a shooting war with them.
 
BobStackFan4Life said:
You think the Turks would go to war to defend the Kurds?
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I think they would take some action to protect their commercial interests, yes. The Turks apparently do over $8B a year in business with Kurdistans and have just paid for a pipeline to get access to all that Kurdish oil, over the objections of the Maliki government. Action to threaten that would be met with some kind of a response (arms sales and other aid to the Peshmerga would be a starting point).
 
James_Dean_in_Giant_111.jpg
 
When I was a kid I heard some remarkable stories about the Turks who fought in the Korean War. If the Turks decide to protect the Kurds, I think they'll be OK.
 
Deacon923 said:
I think they would take some action to protect their commercial interests, yes. The Turks apparently do over $8B a year in business with Kurdistans and have just paid for a pipeline to get access to all that Kurdish oil, over the objections of the Maliki government. Action to threaten that would be met with some kind of a response (arms sales and other aid to the Peshmerga would be a starting point).
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Why wouldn't the Turks just do business with Maliki, or whoever replaces him? There's still a lot of bad blood in Turkey towards the Kurds and vice versa. You can't erase tens of thousands of deaths and decades of propaganda overnight. Some of those around Erdogan might actually prefer to do business with Baghdad. I mean, my guess would be the Turks want stability above all else and don't want to see another conflict. But I'd be shocked if they stepped in on the side of the Kurds. If they did they'd risk conflict with Iran.
 
By the way, this is somewhat off topic but a really good article I read a week or so ago about how some Sunni are planning to rise up.
Baghdad's Sunni fighters: we are ready for zero hour
"There are many men willing to start the fight again but the problem is there is no fear," he said. People were not sufficiently worried about the situation, he said, and did not realise there was no way back. "If we string two Shia on poles for everyone to see, the militias will retaliate and all the men in the area will be forced to carry arms. This is how we start bringing our men together."

A broad-shouldered Sunni commander next to him leaned forward and assured his friend, saying insurgents had set up sleeping cells and were waiting for zero hour to take the war into the heart of the Iraqi capital. "At zero hour, we start our fight by assassinating all the spies and agents. Our neighbourhood, like every Sunni neighbourhood, has many spies and informers. When we assassinate the leaders, the ranks will collapse."
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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/20/baghdad-sunni-fighters-we-are-ready-for-zero-hour
Iraq is coming apart.
 
Isn't a free "Kurdistan" part of the whole "redrawing the middle east" conspiracy theory?

The-Project-for-the-New-Middle-East.jpg
 
BobStackFan4Life said:
But I'd be shocked if they stepped in on the side of the Kurds.
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Then again, I wasn't aware of this thawing of relations between the Kurds and Turks so maybe you're right. And we're talking about a lot of money. Whatever happens, I just hope the US stays out of it.
 
BobStackFan4Life said:
Then again, I wasn't aware of this thawing of relations between the Kurds and Turks so maybe you're right. And we're talking about a lot of money. Whatever happens, I just hope the US stays out of it.
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Have you met the US? We're the asshole at the party who hounds the guys with the blow.
 
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