• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Looking Ahead to 2018

R

RChildress107

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 6, 2011
Messages
10,971
Reaction score
581
Location
Winston-Salem thru 2020
Last night sucked and combined with the VT game was a super disappointing way to end to the season. This thread is for people that don't want to think/talk about that.

There's a lot to build on from this season but also a lot of room to improve, regardless of our personnel next season. The biggest questions for next year seem to be:

1. Does Collins stay?

If so we have the potential to be a top 15 team next year, especially if Collins expands his game enough to play some 4 (which one would presume would be the only point of coming back). If not, I think there are still enough pieces to improve on our performance this year.

2. How good is Chaundee?

In some ways Chaundee's ability to contribute right away is a bigger variable in next seasons results than whether Collins stays or goes. If he performs on the high end of recruits in his range he could have a similar impact to Aminu on the 09' team. If he's on the low end and not much of an improvement over Arians then our ceiling for next year is limited.

3. Can we put together an average P5 defense?

Our problems this year were part personnel (Arians, Wilbekin), part coaching (motivation/scheme/flexibility), part effort (Collins, Woods, and Crawford all guilty at times), and part leadership (if we had any defensive leadership at all it came from our backup freshman point guard). So basically everything.

Personnel will hopefully fix itself naturally to some extent (see #2 and #1 if Collins stays). The players should get better at understanding/executing their help responsibilities with another year under their belts. I think in the college game though, unless you have mastered a unique defense (see Cuse and UVA) or have top end talent, you need to be able to run multiple schemes in order to have an effective defense. That's on the coaching staff to add that during the off-season. Finally someone on the court needs to step up and set the defensive tone early next year or everything described above won't matter.

4. If Collins leaves, how do we allocate minutes at the 4/5?

For the love of god don't leave JC.
 
Last edited:
RChildress107 said:
Last night sucked and combined with the VT game was a super disappointing way to end to the season. This thread is for people that don't want to think/talk about that.

There's a lot to build on from this season but also a lot of room to improve, regardless of our personnel next season. The biggest questions for next year seem to be:

1. Does Collins stay?

If so we have the potential to be a top 15 team next year, especially if Collins expands his game enough to play some 4 (which one would presume would be the only point of coming back). If not, I think there are still enough pieces to improve on our performance this year.

2. How good is Chaundee?

In some ways Chaundee's ability to contribute right away is a bigger variable in next seasons results than whether Collins stays or goes. If he performs on the high end of recruits in his range he could have a similar impact to Aminu on the 09' team. If he's on the low end and not much of an improvement over Arians then our ceiling for next year is limited.

3. Can we put together an average P5 defense?

Our problems this year were part personnel (Arians, Wilbekin), part coaching (motivation/scheme/flexibility), part effort (Collins, Woods, and Crawford all guilty at times), and part leadership (if we had any defensive leadership at all it came from our backup freshman point guard). So basically everything.

Personnel will hopefully fix itself naturally to some extent (see #2 and #1 if Collins stays). The players should get better at understanding/executing their help responsibilities with another year under their belts. I think in the college game though, unless you have mastered a unique defense (see Cuse and UVA) or have top end talent, you need to be able to run multiple schemes in order to have an effective defense. That's on the coaching staff to add that during the off-season. Finally someone on the court needs to step up and set the defensive tone early next year or everything described above won't matter.

4. If Collins leaves, how do we allocate minutes at the 4/5?

For the love of god don't leave JC.
Click to expand...

1) Don't know
2) Don't know
3) Don't knpw
4) Don't know
 
i am more interested in if all the FR are staying. the FR wings hardly saw the floor all season. i thought we might see them at the end of the season but alas they kept on the pine.
 
warak said:
i am more interested in if all the FR are staying. the FR wings hardly saw the floor all season. i thought we might see them at the end of the season but alas they kept on the pine.
Click to expand...

Yeah unless they can help answer question 4 or improve enough to challenge a senior Wilbekin for minutes then whether Washington and Mitchell stay or not really isn't all that relevant to next season.
 
I'd add that an additional question is: Who else do we add to the roster?

Assuming Collins goes, we'd have 2 spots to fill (I think). Is that Sarr? Perhaps a grad transfer who can help down low?

I have confidence that the offense will only have a minor drop-off (again, assuming Collins leaves) if we're able to find someone (a grad transfer) relatively decent to give minutes at the 5.

And the defense cannot get any worse. I just don't see how it won't improve when you look at the roster. Even without Collins, just having SJM and Moore on the court fouling anyone that gets close to them is better than the "ole" defense we played last night (and most of the season).
 
Need a grad transfer who can legitimately play the 4/5 and bang inside. Really worried about that if Collins leaves or even if Collins stays. I'd say that is our biggest need in the next couple of months.
 
I probably need to clarify the above statement about a minor drop-off in the offense. Clearly, losing Collins will hurt a lot. He was one of the most efficient players in the country this season. But I'm hoping Brown will be a net positive at the 2/3 and whoever plays at the 5 can at least make a layup or get a few putbacks.

We should still have plenty of shooters and open looks.
 
DeacsATS said:
I probably need to clarify the above statement about a minor drop-off in the offense. Clearly, losing Collins will hurt a lot. He was one of the most efficient players in the country this season. But I'm hoping Brown will be a net positive at the 2/3 and whoever plays at the 5 can at least make a layup or get a few putbacks.

We should still have plenty of shooters and open looks.
Click to expand...

I think it's a lot to assume that Brown will be a net positive vs Arians on offense.

And, in general, the only time Manning has had an above average offense was this season. I don't know how it operates without Collins in the middle of it.

I am hopeful the defense takes a big step forward, but it's hard to imagine the offense not taking a big step backwards.
 
The concern I have offensively if Collins leaves is no low post threat to give open looks on the perimeter. We have shooters, but not many who create their own shot. Can one of the current bigs or a newcomer develop into a low post threat?
 
RChildress107 said:
Last night sucked and combined with the VT game was a super disappointing way to end to the season. This thread is for people that don't want to think/talk about that.

There's a lot to build on from this season but also a lot of room to improve, regardless of our personnel next season. The biggest questions for next year seem to be:

1. Does Collins stay?

If so we have the potential to be a top 15 team next year, especially if Collins expands his game enough to play some 4 (which one would presume would be the only point of coming back). If not, I think there are still enough pieces to improve on our performance this year.

It would be major shock if he doesn't leave.

2. How good is Chaundee?

In some ways Chaundee's ability to contribute right away is a bigger variable in next seasons results than whether Collins stays or goes. If he performs on the high end of recruits in his range he could have a similar impact to Aminu on the 09' team. If he's on the low end and not much of an improvement over Arians then our ceiling for next year is limited.

He is put together like a man and likes to use his strength. He can score and shoot. It sure looks like he'll be an immediate contributor. KU really wanted him.

3. Can we put together an average P5 defense?

If Chaundee can play some D, don't be shocked if our D improves a bunch. We may not score as much, but our D could be better. I wouldn't be shocked to see Sam or Doral start as a traditional lane defender.

Our problems this year were part personnel (Arians, Wilbekin), part coaching (motivation/scheme/flexibility), part effort (Collins, Woods, and Crawford all guilty at times), and part leadership (if we had any defensive leadership at all it came from our backup freshman point guard). So basically everything.

Collins couldn't play D and stay on the court. Woods' problems weren't about effort. He's in the first group. Crawford's D was spotty due to have to cover up for others and to stay on the court.


Personnel will hopefully fix itself naturally to some extent (see #2 and #1 if Collins stays). The players should get better at understanding/executing their help responsibilities with another year under their belts. I think in the college game though, unless you have mastered a unique defense (see Cuse and UVA) or have top end talent, you need to be able to run multiple schemes in order to have an effective defense. That's on the coaching staff to add that during the off-season. Finally someone on the court needs to step up and set the defensive tone early next year or everything described above won't matter.





4. If Collins leaves, how do we allocate minutes at the 4/5?

We may go after a top post grad or we could get Sarr. I wouldn't be shocked to see Donovan be good next year, but the real difference may well be Sam and/or Doral playing a lot of minutes in a traditional slot.

For the love of god don't leave JC.
Click to expand...

Barring something bizarre JC is gone and should go for his future.
 
DeacsATS said:
I probably need to clarify the above statement about a minor drop-off in the offense. Clearly, losing Collins will hurt a lot. He was one of the most efficient players in the country this season. But I'm hoping Brown will be a net positive at the 2/3 and whoever plays at the 5 can at least make a layup or get a few putbacks.

We should still have plenty of shooters and open looks.
Click to expand...

Agree. If score 8 points less a game than this year and allow 8 points less a game the results should be okay. If the offense drops off to just 75 pts per game we would still be in the top third in the country in point per game. We were 34th in the country in 3 pt. shooting %. That shouldn't drop off (collins only really got doubled a few times this year). On defense going from 78 pts. per game to 70 would move us from 300 to 100.
 
If Bryant Crawford improves as much as he did from Fr-Soph year he will be good enough to leave for the NBA. +
If Collins leaves, obviously a huge negative offensively. ---
I could see SJM being a defensive plus over John Collins (if someone has a stat that I can't find about Collins' defense being good, I will retract this). I see a lot of potential in SJM's defense. (watch Louisville game. He is the best hedging big on our team, got a block or two. Very good sign). I see him playing more than Doral next season. +
Chaundee should be a huge plus defensively over Arians and probably either a net equal or negative of Arians on O (could see him getting a lot of rebounds for us on both ends leading to more points indirectly, purely speculative though). I'll give this a positive. +
Chill improves both offensively and defensively. Don't get the hate on him. I see a lot of potential once he has a year and an offseason under his belt to take away stupid decisions/make some stupid decisions into points (unwarranted drives to the basket). +
Dinos stays the same unless he finds his shot again. Not going to add a positive for him finding his shot though because I hoped he would this year and he did not. no positive or negative right now.
Moore, Wash, Donovan Mitchell, and Melo are unknowns to me. All could contribute greatly on the defensive end due to athleticism and size but I won't attribute a plus or minus to this.
Wilbekin is who he is. No positive or negative here either.
I honestly have no idea if Keyshawn will get much better as the next two years go by. I feel like the only thing he could get better at (due to his ceiling) is his athleticism - AKA defense. I'm not going to attribute a positive or negative to this.

So, overall, in my (much wanted, I'm sure) opinion, I can still see us being better next season regardless of if Collins leaves or not - we will just be a very different team. Some of the unknowns I listed could add more positives/negatives next year, but right now my opinion is:

Scenario above: + (on bubble probably, maybe better)
Scenario that Collins comes back: ++++ (solidly in the tournament, possible top 15 team)
 
Last edited:
Buttermaker said:
The concern I have offensively if Collins leaves is no low post threat to give open looks on the perimeter. We have shooters, but not many who create their own shot. Can one of the current bigs or a newcomer develop into a low post threat?
Click to expand...

I don't think Crawford gets nearly enough credit for how good our offense was this year. We will miss Collins the most on the offensive glass because he consistently got us 6-8 free points a game down there.

Dinos is good enough in the post to keep teams honest. Crawford will continue to generate plenty of open looks for people.
 
WFU Lurker said:
I think it's a lot to assume that Brown will be a net positive vs Arians on offense.
Click to expand...

Arians only played about 22 minutes a game. I love the guy, but I think (and hope) Brown will be a little less one-dimensional and probably gets more usage that Arians did this year.

Arians started, but was 6th in minutes per game and 8th in % of possessions used.
 
Unless something happens to upgrade our front court/post talent to help John Collins out-if he returns- we are not top 15 next year. Good but not top 15. SJM and Doral will have to get a lot better. We have come a very long way but not top 15.
 
If JC actually returns (highly unlikely), we add a Top 30ish player with great mobility to a core of JC, BC and Woods. We would be a Top 15ish team. But he's not coming back unless something bizarre happens.
 
dcon69 said:
Unless something happens to upgrade our front court/post talent to help John Collins out-if he returns- we are not top 15 next year. Good but not top 15. SJM and Doral will have to get a lot better. We have come a very long way but not top 15.
Click to expand...

I think it is a moot point (he gone)... But I can think of three reasons why our front court would be better under that scenario.

1- Collins having another year to improve on defending without fouling = more minutes on the floor (maybe not dramatic, but on the margin).
2- SJM/Moore (& Mitchell?) with another year of improvement... Just need serviceable, not spectacular.
3- Bringing someone else in.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top