Pilchard
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Not sure what it is with WF and Elon these days, but WF opened its football season against Elon (sadly, the FB team's season peaked in the 2nd quarter of that game; 24-0 WF; everything seemed to be going so well at that point), WF's baseball's Fall Ball season opened hosting Elon, and on Monday our basketball team will ease into the the 2023-24 basketball season by hosting... you guessed it... Elon.
Here is a quick guide to the Phoenix MBB team:
2022-23 Elon: After dumping Mike Schrage at the end of the 2021-22 season, Elon hired Billy Taylor from Ball State (where he had been mediocre and was on the hot seat) before last season. Elon's start to last season was ugly. How ugly? Well, Elon lost its first 19 games against D1 teams last. Yes, 0-19 against D1 teams; most of those opponents were not good. Yikes. At that point (January 26, 2023), Elon had dropped to #345 in KP's rankings. Taylor did manage to rally his squad late last season, as Elon won six of its next eight games, all CAA contests, before losing the last three in a row. Elon finished last season 8-24 (6-24 against D1 teams) and #337 in the country. That was Elon's worst final ranking since KP started his ratings in 1999. KP rates Elon as slightly improved from the end of last year. Elon is currently #330. Elon basketball is in a sad place right now.
Mirroring its poor record, Elon sucked in almost every metric last season, but they were particularly awful at shooting the three (29% - #355) and defending the three (46% - #352); that spread was the worst in the nation; given that there is some randomness in three point shooting percentages, perhaps, some positive regression will come for Elon this year (there better be positive regression for the Billy Taylor era to surpass Mike Schrage's thee year tenure) . Elon also struggled getting to the line (#302 in FT rate) offensive rebounding (#292 in O rebound%) and keeping opponents off their offensive boards (#281 in opponent's offensive rebound percentage). Elon was also small upfront with only one starter (Sam Sherry) over 6-5. Elon played at relatively slow pace (#252) in tempo, and historically, Billy Taylor's teams typically play slower than average.
2023 Roster:
The Phoenix return three starters from last season:
G/F 6-5 Max Mackinnon: Soph; Aussie; leading returning scorer 11 ppg 5 rpg; 57% from 2; 26% from 3; CAA ROY; hate that this is where college basketball is, but potential future portal add
G 6-5 Zac Ervin: Grad student; 9 ppg; 33% from three; leading returning three point shooter; played well in an Elon Summer trip to Europe
C 6-10 Sam Sherry; junior; 9 ppg; 4 rpg; analytics rate him as one of the worst defenders in the country
Expected to join those three in the Elon starting lineup:
G 6-1 Rob Higgins: Graduate transfer from St. Francis (NY); averaged 11 ppg; 3 apg; 33% from three; 1.8 to 1 assist to TO ratio
F 6-6: DeAndre Smart: Soph; 9 pg 4 rpg off the Phoenix bench; missed most of last season with injuries;
Among other notables on Elon's roster:
G 6-1 Grant Grondrezick II: dad played in the NBA, mom won a Natty in college; sister played in the WNBA, she was the victim of Kevin Porter Jr.'s assault this Summer;
G/F 6-7 Nick Dorn: Father played in the NFL for seven years; brother, Torin, played at NC State; the family is from Charlotte
G/F 6-4 TK Simpkins: transferred in from Forbes' old stomping grounds, NW Florida State
Game projection: KP has WF winning 81-61; Torvik projects 84-65. Generally teams that went on a Summer trip (Elon went to Europe this Summer) start a little ahead of those teams that did not (WF did the Euro trip thing last year). Last year, Elon shot a lot of threes and missed most of them; while their opponents shot a lot of threes and made a lot of them. Got to believe that Elon will have a little better shooting luck in 2023-24, and this is now year #2 for Taylor at Elon; so, would expect the Phoenix to be improved in 2023-4. That said, Elon is small and not particularly skilled. WF should crush Elon inside; this could be a game where Marsh is 6 for 6 from the floor with six dunks. Also, Forbes' teams often start well (Forbes' WF teams are 3-0 ATS in the opener). WF has a big game at UGA on deck, the Deacs are a little banged up and are sans Reid right now (thanks NCAA!). WF will win, but if the line is as high as Torvik or KP project, not sure they cover. For those focused on WF's NCAAT prospects, winning this game will do nothing for the Deacs' NCAAT resume, but a loss would be catastrophic. Note that to start this season there are very few competitive opening games, even for the biggest of the big boys (openers form some of the AP top 10):
#1 Kansas opens with #303 NC Central
#2 Duke opens with #267 Dartmouth
#5 Marquette opens with #252 N. Illinois
#6 UCONN opens with #213 N. Arizona
#7 Houston opens with #305 ULM
#8 Creighton opens with #344 FAMU
#9 Tennessee opens with #321 TN Tech
Essentially everyone plays next Monday, and there are only three games where top 100 teams play each other. No one wants to start 0-1. Except L'ville, who start 0-1 regardless of the opponent.
Here is a quick guide to the Phoenix MBB team:
2022-23 Elon: After dumping Mike Schrage at the end of the 2021-22 season, Elon hired Billy Taylor from Ball State (where he had been mediocre and was on the hot seat) before last season. Elon's start to last season was ugly. How ugly? Well, Elon lost its first 19 games against D1 teams last. Yes, 0-19 against D1 teams; most of those opponents were not good. Yikes. At that point (January 26, 2023), Elon had dropped to #345 in KP's rankings. Taylor did manage to rally his squad late last season, as Elon won six of its next eight games, all CAA contests, before losing the last three in a row. Elon finished last season 8-24 (6-24 against D1 teams) and #337 in the country. That was Elon's worst final ranking since KP started his ratings in 1999. KP rates Elon as slightly improved from the end of last year. Elon is currently #330. Elon basketball is in a sad place right now.
Mirroring its poor record, Elon sucked in almost every metric last season, but they were particularly awful at shooting the three (29% - #355) and defending the three (46% - #352); that spread was the worst in the nation; given that there is some randomness in three point shooting percentages, perhaps, some positive regression will come for Elon this year (there better be positive regression for the Billy Taylor era to surpass Mike Schrage's thee year tenure) . Elon also struggled getting to the line (#302 in FT rate) offensive rebounding (#292 in O rebound%) and keeping opponents off their offensive boards (#281 in opponent's offensive rebound percentage). Elon was also small upfront with only one starter (Sam Sherry) over 6-5. Elon played at relatively slow pace (#252) in tempo, and historically, Billy Taylor's teams typically play slower than average.
2023 Roster:
The Phoenix return three starters from last season:
G/F 6-5 Max Mackinnon: Soph; Aussie; leading returning scorer 11 ppg 5 rpg; 57% from 2; 26% from 3; CAA ROY; hate that this is where college basketball is, but potential future portal add
G 6-5 Zac Ervin: Grad student; 9 ppg; 33% from three; leading returning three point shooter; played well in an Elon Summer trip to Europe
C 6-10 Sam Sherry; junior; 9 ppg; 4 rpg; analytics rate him as one of the worst defenders in the country
Expected to join those three in the Elon starting lineup:
G 6-1 Rob Higgins: Graduate transfer from St. Francis (NY); averaged 11 ppg; 3 apg; 33% from three; 1.8 to 1 assist to TO ratio
F 6-6: DeAndre Smart: Soph; 9 pg 4 rpg off the Phoenix bench; missed most of last season with injuries;
Among other notables on Elon's roster:
G 6-1 Grant Grondrezick II: dad played in the NBA, mom won a Natty in college; sister played in the WNBA, she was the victim of Kevin Porter Jr.'s assault this Summer;
G/F 6-7 Nick Dorn: Father played in the NFL for seven years; brother, Torin, played at NC State; the family is from Charlotte
G/F 6-4 TK Simpkins: transferred in from Forbes' old stomping grounds, NW Florida State
Game projection: KP has WF winning 81-61; Torvik projects 84-65. Generally teams that went on a Summer trip (Elon went to Europe this Summer) start a little ahead of those teams that did not (WF did the Euro trip thing last year). Last year, Elon shot a lot of threes and missed most of them; while their opponents shot a lot of threes and made a lot of them. Got to believe that Elon will have a little better shooting luck in 2023-24, and this is now year #2 for Taylor at Elon; so, would expect the Phoenix to be improved in 2023-4. That said, Elon is small and not particularly skilled. WF should crush Elon inside; this could be a game where Marsh is 6 for 6 from the floor with six dunks. Also, Forbes' teams often start well (Forbes' WF teams are 3-0 ATS in the opener). WF has a big game at UGA on deck, the Deacs are a little banged up and are sans Reid right now (thanks NCAA!). WF will win, but if the line is as high as Torvik or KP project, not sure they cover. For those focused on WF's NCAAT prospects, winning this game will do nothing for the Deacs' NCAAT resume, but a loss would be catastrophic. Note that to start this season there are very few competitive opening games, even for the biggest of the big boys (openers form some of the AP top 10):
#1 Kansas opens with #303 NC Central
#2 Duke opens with #267 Dartmouth
#5 Marquette opens with #252 N. Illinois
#6 UCONN opens with #213 N. Arizona
#7 Houston opens with #305 ULM
#8 Creighton opens with #344 FAMU
#9 Tennessee opens with #321 TN Tech
Essentially everyone plays next Monday, and there are only three games where top 100 teams play each other. No one wants to start 0-1. Except L'ville, who start 0-1 regardless of the opponent.
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